Blue Jays travel to Boston seeking a much-needed series victory

It was a rough homestand for the Blue Jays, who went 4-5, losing two series to the Phillies and the Yankees. Most recently against the Yankees, they put together a great offensive showing Friday night before scoring just four runs in their next two games and losing via late home runs by New York in the ninth inning.

Though they find themselves just two games back of a Wild Card spot with a 34-38 record, they can ill afford to lose any more series the rest of the month if they want any chance of solidifying themselves as contenders come the trade deadline. The offence has simply not picked up the way it needs to for the Blue Jays to have any chance at winning their division, let alone make a Wild Card spot come playoffs.

Alejandro Kirk is finally back in the lineup healthy, and though he has made an immediate impact, going four for seven in two games played against the Yankees, there is only so much one player can do to supplement power production. As a team, they rank ninth last in the entire league in OPS (.703), eighth last in home runs (69) and eighth last in total runs scored (293).

As bad as these numbers may sound, they get worse when looking at their numbers with runners in scoring position. For the year, the team ranks dead last in the league in terms of OPS (.661), home runs (11) and seventh worst in terms of runs scored (207) with RISP. After posting the second-highest OPS (.810) and highest batting average (.292) with RISP in 2025, the Blue Jays have seemingly lost the ability to hit in the clutch, and it’s starting to cost them close games.

A prime example of this came Saturday afternoon when Kevin Gausman went seven innings, allowing just one hit, a Jasson Dominguez solo home run, doing everything he could to give the team a chance to win a game and a series. The bats went 1-10 with RISP, with the one hit being a Charles McAdoo infield single that scored nobody.

The only notable bat left on the injured list is Addison Barger, making the injury excuse unacceptable for the poor hitting from the rest of the healthy lineup. It is well known that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer have not produced anywhere near their expectations, and role players such as Ernie Clement, Nathan Lukes, Jesus Sanchez and Brandon Valenzuela can only do so much without the stars firing. Kazuma Okamoto has been one of the only bats providing power, now up to 15 home runs on the season.

The #BlueJays have 7 players with an OPS above .750

They don’t have a single player above .800

The lineup has incredible depth, it just doesn’t have a superstar

Shane Bieber’s return is looming as well, meaning the starting rotation is nearing full strength, with Yimi Garcia potentially joining the bullpen in Boston as well. With 15 games left in June, now is the time to stack wins together in a still ever-struggling American League.

Examining the Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox had great hopes of winning the American League East in 2026 after making the Wild Card game with 89 wins a season ago. Garrett Crochet was the runner-up in Cy Young voting, and Craig Breslow was active in the offseason, bringing in Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Caleb Durbin and Ranger Suarez.

To this point, everything has gone wrong for the Red Sox, currently sitting in last place in the AL East with a 29-40 record, and an even worse 12-22 record at home. Crochet struggled mightily early and got injured, and numerous bats that were supposed to perform simply have not.

As a team, the Red Sox are slashing .246/.314/.384/.698 with a 90 WRC+, good for sixth-worst in the league. They have the second-worst walk rate in the league at just a 7.6 BB% and sit towards the middle of the pack at 16th with a 22% strikeout rate. They rank dead last in the league in home runs with 58, and aside from Willson Contreras, who has a .965 OPS, not a single other everyday bat has an OPS above .800.

Their starting pitching staff ranks 13th worst in the league in terms of ERA at 4.52, with a FIP of 4.12, good for 13th best. They rank right in the middle of the pack at 15th for both strikeout rate with an 8.37 K/9, and walk rate with a 3.09 mark. They’ve also been one of the more unlucky staffs in the game, ranking third last in the league in BABIP with a .312 clip.

The bullpen has been one of the few strengths for the Red Sox this season, headlined by Aroldis Chapman at the back end, who has a 0.44 ERA and 14 saves through his first 20.2 innings pitched this season. As a staff, they have the second-best ERA in the game at 3.09, 12th-best FIP at 3.80, 12th-best K/9 at 8.90 and fourth-best BB/9 at 3.16. The Blue Jays will have to do damage early and often to avoid Chapman in the ninth inning, who has given up just one earned run the entire season.

One player to watch: Willson Contreras

A lone bright spot in the Red Sox lineup, Contreras has done his part to provide offence for a weak-hitting squad. His entire career, he has been a consistent hitting machine, with an .808 OPS in seven seasons with the Chicago Cubs and an .817 OPS in three seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals. In his first year in Boston, he is slashing .304/.396/.570/965 with 16 home runs and 43 RBI through his first 67 games played. He’s already produced 2.9 BWAR and 2.6 FWAR, and currently holds the highest WRC+ of his career at 161.

Willson Contreras hits this home run atop the Green Monster 😮

Though he’s been good the whole season, he’s been on an absolute heater to begin June, slashing .390/.457/.878/1.335 with five home runs in 11 games played. In his career against the Blue Jays, he is slashing .405/.463/.757/1.220 with three home runs in 10 games played.

His baseball savant page suggests he can continue this production over a full season, ranking 99th percentile in batting run value, 94th percentile in xwOBA, 88th percentile in barrel rate and 94th percentile in bat speed. Though he is prone to chasing at times, when he makes a mistake, he mashes it. Against fastballs, he is batting .324 with a .599 SLG and 10 home runs already this season, yet against offspeed pitches, he bats just .232 with a .375 SLG. Changeups and splitters, which the Blue Jays are well-known for, will be key against Contreras in this series.

Quick Hits

One thing is clear. It will be very difficult for the Blue Jays to go anywhere this season without their superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. taking off offensively. With just three home runs to this point and a .737 OPS, Guerrero has slid to a near replacement-level bat and simply has to start producing. In his career against the Red Sox, he is slashing .294/.367/.512/.880 with 20 home runs in 103 games. We can only hope this is the series where it begins to click.
As a whole, the Blue Jay offence has not been bad per se; they just haven’t had anyone stand out and be a consistent power threat. Eight batters (nine, including Kirk, in a small sample) have posted an OPS+ over 100, with Brandon Valenzuela’s mark of 114 ranking the highest of everyday players. If this continues, the team will continue to float around .500 for the rest of the season.
Kazuma Okamoto has been scorching hot to begin June, slashing .333/.367/.578/.945 with three home runs and nine RBI in 12 games played. His home run Friday night against the Yankees was the first home run to enter the 500 level at Rogers Centre since Josh Donaldson did so back in 2017. He has been the only semblance of power in the Blue Jay lineup to begin the month.
Fortunately for the Jays, they will not have to face Garrett Crochet or Ranger Suarez in this series, giving them even more reason to break out on offence. Crochet threw 20.2 innings in three starts against the Jays last year to a 1.31 ERA, and Suarez flirted with a no-hitter against Toronto back in April, going eight innings and striking out 10.
Dylan Cease made his return for the Blue Jays last week against Philadelphia, showing no signs of rust after dealing with a hamstring strain, firing six innings to go with 11 strikeouts and just one earned run. He’s lined up to pitch in game one of the series and looks to set the tone against a weak Red Sox lineup.

Probable pitchers

Tuesday: Dylan Cease/Payton Tolle

Wednesday: Max Scherzer/Jake Bennett

Thursday: Trey Yesavage/Sonny Gray

Game times

Tuesday: 6:45 PM EST

Wednesday: 645 PM EST

Thursday: 1:35 PM EST

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