Brandon Carlo’s first full season in Toronto was a struggle from start to finish following last year’s trade

The Toronto Maple Leafs added defenceman Brandon Carlo just prior to the 2024-25 NHL trade deadline with two and a half years of club control remaining, with the hope of him anchoring the right side on Stanley Cup contending teams.

Outside of an insanely lucky bounce at the draft lottery, the returns have been nothing short of disastrous. The Maple Leafs fell in the second round two seasons ago to the Florida Panthers, while Fraser Minten helped send the Bruins to the playoffs by posting 35 points in 82 games. To make matters worse, Carlo appeared in only 55 games and struggled when healthy. It could have been even worse, too. The Leafs’ first-round pick was top five protected, meaning the Leafs had to either win the draft lottery or retain their positioning to keep their pick. Thankfully, the former happened, but it was still a rough trade.

Carlo’s name swirled in trade rumours as the Maple Leafs put themselves in a position to sell at this year’s trade deadline. The 29-year-old ultimately stayed put and is set to make $3.485 million next season with a three-team no-trade clause before becoming an unrestricted free agent.

How the year went

Carlo appeared in the club’s first 18 games before suffering a lower-body injury that kept him out of action from November 13 to January 6, stretching a span of 23 games. On December 12, it was announced that he underwent surgery back on December 3. It was later revealed that Carlo suffered a foot injury that resulted in an infection, which ultimately led to the surgery.

In 55 games this season, Carlo recorded seven assists and a plus-minus rating of plus-four. The seven points are the lowest the defenceman posted in a campaign since the 2020-21 season, where he recorded four and appeared in only 27 games. His physical presence, which was a staple from his Bruins days, dried up as Carlo was only able to produce 54 hits, a far cry from years where Carlo produced over 100.

Paired with Morgan Rielly, who also took a step back this season, Carlo struggled to keep pace with the speed of the game this year. The two struggled to function cohesively in their own end, often appearing completely out of place on goals scored by opposing teams.

Carlo suffered an injury in a 4-0 loss against the Washington Capitals, forcing him to miss the Maple Leafs’ final four games of the season. Head coach Craig Berube announced that surgery would not be required this off-season for Carlo.

Statistical profile

Category	Production	NHL rank
Expected goals for percentage	45.37%	546th out of 633
Goals for percentage	46.43%	424th
Corsi for percentage	43.39%	26th
Expected goals for per 60	2.47	440th
Expected goals against per 60	2.98	553rd

All stats on 5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick, among all players with 400 minutes or greater.

Carlo’s numbers in his first full season with the Maple Leafs showcased just how much of a struggle the year was. Carlo’s expected goals against truly highlight the poor showing in his own end, ranking 553rd out of the 633 qualified skaters.

While Carlo ended up being on for only 45 goals against, ranking 233rd in the NHL, the defenceman is ranked closely among skaters who, in some cases, played 100-plus more minutes throughout the campaign.

The Maple Leafs’ offseason plan appears to be directed towards a retooling process, and if the club has their hopes set on the playoffs, Carlo will need to find a style of play that more closely resembles his Bruins days as the club looks to rebound after a tough 2025-26.

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