Buying Cam Schlitter, Selling Spencer Arrighetti – May 16, 2026
Spencer Arrighetti (SP-HOU) carried a no-hitter into the 8th against the Rangers on Friday before losing it. The 26 year-old righty ultimately allowed no runs on 1 hit and 4 walks while striking out 5 over 7.1 IP. It’s been an up and down start to the campaign for Arrighetti, who now owns a 1.50 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, and 4.65 xFIP through 36 IP (6 starts). He’s benefited from a 3% HR/FB, 85.5% strand rate, and .231 BABIP even as his control has been subpar and he hasn’t missed a ton of bats (10.5%) swinging-strike rate. The opposition’s 75.5% overall and 87.5% contact rates are a touch below average. He’s limited loud contact, with Statcast showing a 34% hard-hit rate, 7% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 87.5 mph. Overall, it’s not an exciting profile and one has to expect the ERA to regress significantly.
JJ Bleday (OF-CIN) stayed hot as he went 3-5 with a pair of 2B, an RBI, and 2 runs scored at Cleveland on Friday evening. The 28 year-old has been very productive since joining the Reds, hitting .245 with 6 HR, 19 RBI, and 12 R through 71 PA while chipping in a SB. He’s been so locked in at the dish that he’s walked (18.5%) more often than he’s struck out (14%) while blistering the baseball to the tune of a 56% hard-hit rate, 16.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 94 mph. There is, however, a big red flag in the volume of contact department as his in-zone contact rate comes in at just 80.5% so far in 2026. Although there is some pedigree as as Bleday was the 4th overall pick back in 2019, he’s a .219 career hitter through nearly 1600 PA while he’s offered modest pop and limited speed. Enjoy the hot streak while it lasts; this most likely isn’t a breakout.
Cam Schlittler (SP-NYY) earned the W against the Mets on Friday, allowing 1 run on 2 hits (1 HR), 2 walks, and 9 strikeouts across 6.2 IP. The 25 year-old RHP fired 71 of his 106 offerings for strikes in the outing. Schlittler has shown major improvement in 2026 as he now boasts a 1.35 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 2.54 xFIP through his first 10 starts (60 IP) of the campaign. Most significantly, he’s slashed his walk rate from a year ago (3.8) while missing even more bats, with his swinging-strike rate up from 11% last year to 14.5% so far in 2026. The opposition’s overall (73.5%) and in-zone (80%) contact rates are down (from 78% and 85%, respectively) while they are also making less loud contact, with Statcast showing a 40.5% hard-hit rate (same last season), 6% barrel rate (down from 8%), and average exit velo of 88 mph (was 89). Schlittler appears to be a star in the making as he prepares to face the Blue Jays in the Bronx next week.
Janson Junk (SP-MIA) got lit up by the Rays on Friday as he surrendered 7 runs on 10 hits and 3 walks while striking out 4 across 5.2 IP. The 30 year-old RHP served up a pair of dingers while tossing 62 of his 100 pitches for strikes. Junk had a 3.25 ERA against a 3.92 xFIP entering this start, so it might be viewed as a bit of correction as he now claims a 4.14 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 4.04 xFIP through 50 IP (9 starts). He’s leaned heavily on inducing grounders (48.5%) as he’s missed few bats (8.5% swinging-strike rate) and the opposition is making plenty of contact overall (83.5%) and in the zone (89.5%). Even then, there’s been a fair amount of loud contact as Statcast shows a 42.5% hard-hit rate, 6.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 90 mph. Next week’s matchup with the Braves will certainly be a litmus test for Junk.
Braxton Ashcraft (SP-PIT) did not factor into the decision against the Phillies on Friday as he allowed 4 runs on 7 hits and no walks while fanning 5 across 6.2 IP. The 26 year-old RHP yielded one round tripper as he fired 76 of his 100 pitches for strikes in the contest. While he did not earn a quality start, it also wasn’t a bad one as the final run charged to him came around to score on a homer after he exited the game. Overall, it’s been a strong start to the 2026 campaign for Ashcraft, who now boasts a 3.09 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 3.30 xFIP through his first 55.1 IP (9 starts). He’s missed bats (13% swinging-strike rate) while the opposition’s overall (73%) and in-zone (84.5%) contact rates are below average. And they have struggled to make much loud contact when they’ve gotten the bat on the ball as Statcast shows a 35% hard-hit rate, 5.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 89.5 mph. Given his strong start to the season, he should be started in St. Louis next week.
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