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Chaos, Upsets, and Underdogs: Breaking Down the Top Half of the Roland Garros 2026 Draw

Chaos, Upsets, and Underdogs: Breaking Down the Top Half of the Roland Garros 2026 Draw

by Bob Stockton

Roland Garros has delivered its most chaotic opening week in recent memory. With world No. 1 Jannik Sinner gone and Ben Shelton following him out the door, the top half of the draw is a wide-open landscape of opportunity. Eight third-round matches await, and not one of them is boring. Here’s a look at every player still standing.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

The man of the tournament so far. Ranked No. 56 in the world, Cerundolo is the first man to oust the top seed at Roland Garros before the third round since Karol Kucera in 2000.  He didn’t win in any conventional sense — Sinner cruised through the first two sets and led 5-1 in the third before suddenly hitting a physical wall, suffering from dizziness, low energy, and cramps.  But Cerundolo kept Sinner out there, kept the ball in play, and when the moment arrived, he was ready. He stormed back to win 18 of the final 20 games, completing one of the most dramatic upsets in recent Roland Garros history — and reaching the third round of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career.  This is his tournament to enjoy now.

Martin Landaluce

The young Spaniard is making the draw nervous in all the right ways. The 20-year-old from Madrid fought back from two sets down to beat Vit Kopriva 1-6, 2-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-0  — a result that tells you everything about his mentality. Led by Jodar and Landaluce, who have each put together eye-catching runs at ATP Masters 1000 events this season, men’s tennis appears to be moving confidently into a bright future.  Now he gets the giant-killer himself in Cerundolo. The third round couldn’t have a more compelling opener.

Matteo Berrettini

The Italian renaissance continues. Berrettini, a quarter-finalist at Roland Garros in 2021, ousted home hope and 22nd seed Arthur Rinderknech 6-4, 6-4, 6-4  in a commanding display under the Chatrier lights. He warned his rivals afterward: “I am going to remember this match for a long time.”  When Berrettini is healthy and firing on all cylinders on clay, his serve-and-forehand combination is a nightmare. His route through the draw suddenly looks very manageable.

Francisco Comesana

The Argentine quietly pulled off his own upset in the second round, beating 14th seed Luciano Darderi 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4  in a five-set battle. Comesana is a gritty, clay-court specialist who makes very few unforced errors and grinds opponents into submission from the baseline. He’s not a household name, but he belongs on this surface. A Berrettini-Comesana third-round clash would be a fascinating contrast of styles — power versus patience.

Jaime Faria [Q]

Few people arrive at Roland Garros via the qualifying draw and look this comfortable doing it. The Portuguese youngster had to beat Grigor Dimitrov just to get into the main draw — Faria ended the former world No. 3’s Roland Garros qualifying hopes with a hard-fought 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(10-6) victory  — then kept rolling, defeating Jan-Lennard Struff 7-5, 7-6(1), 6-2  in the second round. He earns nothing for free, but clay rewards his game. Now he faces Tiafoe, and qualifiers who get this far tend to have nothing to lose.

Frances Tiafoe [19]

Tiafoe produced one of the week’s most impressive results, defeating Hubert Hurkacz 6-7(5), 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-7(1), 6-4  in a demanding five-setter. The American is at his best when he gets emotional energy from the crowd, which Paris doesn’t always provide, but his ball-striking on clay has improved dramatically. He’s the clear favorite against Faria, but a flat Tiafoe against a free-swinging qualifier is never a certainty.

Matteo Arnaldi

Arnaldi served notice to the rest of the draw with a statement win over a genuine Grand Slam contender. He defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-6(2), 5-7, 6-3, 6-2  in a match that showed his growing confidence at the top level. The young Italian has beautiful, clean groundstrokes and the footwork to back it up on red clay. He’ll need every bit of it against Collignon.

Raphael Collignon

Belgium’s most exciting tennis story of the year. Collignon struck 30 winners while committing just 13 unforced errors, and was dominant throughout in a straight-sets victory over fifth seed Ben Shelton, adding another twist to a dramatic day that had already seen Sinner’s exit.  “I was very solid from the beginning to the end, very stable,” Collignon said. “I seized every opportunity, and I broke every time at the right time. If I hadn’t been so calm and quiet, I wouldn’t have been able to win the match.”  He is not a fluke — he is a problem.

Felix Auger-Aliassime [4]

FAA is the highest-ranked player left in this half of the draw and, at least on paper, the favorite to reach the semi-finals. He’s been tested early — he dropped the first set against Burruchaga for the second match running  — but he’s found his way through both times. His clay game has matured considerably in recent years, and his serve is always a weapon. He’ll want a cleaner start in round three.

Brandon Nakashima [31]

Nakashima showed real character in his second-round match, getting past Frenchman Luca Van Assche 6-3 in the fifth after over four and a half hours . The Californian is a supremely consistent baseliner with one of the cleanest backhands on tour. He never beats himself and he’s comfortable playing the long game on clay. A potential FAA matchup would be a tactical chess match of the highest order.

Moïse Kouame [WC]

The story of the tournament. The Paris-born 17-year-old started the season outside the top 800. Four months later, he is the youngest man to reach the Roland Garros third round since Rafael Nadal.  He beat former Grand Slam champion Marin Cilic in straight sets on debut, then trailed 2-5 in the fifth set of his second-round match against Vallejo before refusing to disappear, clawing his way back and surviving a brutal 93-minute decider in front of a roaring home crowd.  Kouame was born in Sarcelles, a suburb of Paris, on 6 March 2009  — and the Parisians have completely adopted him as their own. He will be deafeningly supported in round three.

Alejandro Tabilo

Tabilo slipped into the third round via walkover after 16th seed Valentin Vacherot retired , which means he arrives fresher than almost everyone else in the draw. The Chilean is a dangerous ball-striker with a flat, heavy game that can overpower opponents when he’s on form. Fresh legs against a 17-year-old wild card playing in front of his home crowd is a fascinating dynamic — on paper Tabilo should win, but Paris may have other ideas.

Flavio Cobolli [10]

Cobolli is looking every inch a legitimate seeded contender this week. He dispatched Wu Yibing 6-4, 6-4, 6-4  without breaking a sweat. The Italian won the 2026 Mexican Open title earlier this season , defeating Tiafoe in the final, and has been one of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour this year. He’s comfortable, he’s confident, and he’s on his best surface. Don’t overlook Cobolli as a potential quarter-finalist or beyond.

Learner Tien [18]

Tien has been grinding his way through the draw in the most un-Tien-like fashion — the American, known for clean, aggressive tennis, has had to go five sets twice already. He defeated Facundo Diaz Acosta 7-5, 4-6, 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-3  in his second round. There’s talent here — significant talent — but clay still demands a level of patience that doesn’t always come naturally to his game. A match against Cobolli would be a serious test of whether he can sustain his level across a full five-set clay court battle.

Francisco Cerundolo [25]

The older Cerundolo brother is quietly building his own strong tournament. He dismissed Hugo Gaston 2-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-1  after losing the opening set — a familiar pattern for Francisco, who often needs time to find his rhythm but is ferocious once he does. He’s a clay-court specialist with serious weapons from the back of the court. The entire Cerundolo family might end up in the fourth round, which would be genuinely extraordinary.

Zachary Svajda

The San Diego native has been a quiet achiever in this draw, defeating Adam Walton 6-3, 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-2  in four solid sets. Svajda achieved a career-high ranking of world No. 82 earlier this year  and is a composed, efficient player who thrives when he can control rallies. This is the biggest stage of his career, and a match against Francisco Cerundolo on clay would be a genuine mountain to climb — but Svajda has surprised people before.

The big picture: With Sinner and Shelton gone, this half of the draw is Auger-Aliassime’s to lose. But Collignon is playing inspired tennis, the Cerundolo brothers are both capable of winning ugly and winning beautifully, and Kouame is playing with a freedom that seeded players simply cannot manufacture. Expect more chaos before a semi-finalist emerges from this bracket.

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