Fitting for what’s become a national event: ‘America’s Team’ is perhaps the biggest winner of Thursday’s NFL schedule release.
The Dallas Cowboys were one of just two teams that drew respected money at DraftKings in the hours following the schedule reveal. Oddsmakers subsequently moved Dallas from over 8.5 wins at -130 odds to 9.5 with the over at +110 odds.
To put it mildly, a full game move on a team’s win total this quickly after the release is unusual. However, individual betting accounts that have demonstrated profit over a long period command oddsmakers’ attention and respect. Thus, when one places a notable wager, the house often adjusts, as was the case with the Dallas move.
While opponents and venues were already known, the league unveiled the exact order of games – and that’s what seems to have broken favorably Jerry Jones’ team. The Cowboys learned they will not endure a single short-week road game and also will have at least 11 days off before their two toughest road opponents. Following a Thanksgiving home game, Dallas travels to the defending champion Seahawks, then has a bye before facing the Rams, the current Super Bowl favorites.
In addition to the Cowboys, the Carolina Panthers also took respected money that induced a line movement at DraftKings. Carolina moved from Over 6.5 wins at -150 odds to 7.5 with +110 odds on the Over.
The Panthers also seemingly caught a break with Thursday’s reveal. With road trips to Cleveland, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on the schedule, Carolina learned that only one of those cold-weather cities lands after October. Plus, they finish the season with four of their final five games at home.
Overall, tangible odds movement was rare across the betting market on Thursday. For example, Circa Sportsbook did not move a single win total or any of its conference or Super Bowl odds, even after learning the exact dates of every single game.
“There were some travel spots that could be a concern. For example, the Lions have three games in 12 days, and one of those games is in Europe,” Circa Sportsbook NFL oddsmaker Jamey Pileggi told The Athletic via text. “I’d rather take a meaningful bet first and gauge bettors’ opinions before moving off something that could end up being a non-issue.”
Over the years, the schedule release has never really drawn much odds movement, even with national legalization and sportsbooks now posting win totals earlier than ever before. The exact sequencing of games may impact a point spread for a particular game, but it rarely impacts a team’s perceived performance across an entire season.
“Obviously, it’s much more important who you play than anything else,” veteran Las Vegas-based professional sports bettor Steve Fezzik said. “The last week in many ways can be the most important.”
That Week 18 subtlety is one angle that casual handicappers often overlook. Sharp bettors target these types of nuances, hoping to uncover betting value. But the modern reality is that almost everything is already baked into the odds, and the heavy lifting is done prior to the release.
“We have the win totals up already. The futures book is up. We’re watching all the acquisitions, and we know what happened in the draft,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello explained. “We are a long way from the regular season, but our team is in tune.”
One swing factor to watch this particular year is the health of two-time league MVP and three-time champion Patrick Mahomes, who tore his left ACL in mid-December. He is expected to start the season opener, as the Chiefs are 2.5-point home favorites against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. (link to Jesse Newell’s story)
“I’m going into it, preparing that he’ll be the starter Week 1 and not miss any additional time,” Pileggi said. “The Chiefs are such a public favorite and are dangerous if Mahomes is 100 percent, so you have to err on the side of caution and price it accordingly until I at least get bets telling me otherwise.”
The schedule release actually plays a major role in KC’s win total of 10.5 (Under -140). If Mahomes is ruled out, then the Chiefs would become Week 1 underdogs and thus, their season win total would drop to 9.5. However, if they drew a weaker opponent like the Jets in the opener, they’d still remain a home favorite without Mahomes, and the win total would remain at 10.5.
For years, sportsbooks posted win totals after the schedule release. Now those betting odds are posted in February and continuously refined throughout the offseason, ensuring Thursday’s hoopla only slightly moves the needle for a select number of teams.