Jonathon Long has logged a shiny 137 wRC+ since he was selected in the ninth round of the 2023 draft out of Long Beach State. How bright of a future he has is a question not easily answered. Ranked 17th on our recently released 2026 Cubs Top Prospects list with a 40 FV, the 24-year-old first baseman has a profile that is promising, yet in some ways concerning.
Last season’s numbers were particularly strong. Playing at Triple-A Iowa, Long slashed a robust .305/404/.479 with 20 home runs and a 131 wRC+ over 607 plate appearances, which led to his being honored as the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year. His right-handed bat hasn’t been nearly as productive in the current campaign — a .294/.369/.405 slash line with a pair of round-trippers and a 101 wRC+ over 143 plate appearances — but he nonetheless remains a threat to opposing pitchers. Moreover, he has begun to warm up. Over his last nine games with Iowa, Long is 14-for-40 (.350).
A hyperextended elbow caused the Orange, California native to miss time in spring training, a period that coincided with my annual visit to Cactus League camps. Intrigued by his stat sheet and scouting reports alike, I asked Long if he considers himself more of a power hitter, or more of a contact hitter.
“I’m probably a little bit of both,” replied Long, whose 20.3% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate this season are slightly worse than last year’s respective marks of 19.7% and 13.2%. “I don’t like striking out, and I have pretty good exit-velocity numbers. If you combine those, you kind of get a high contact rate and a power hitter.”
Our recent prospect report on Long, put together by Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan, is largely in accord with that self-assessment. Bullish in agreement, it nevertheless came with a caveat:
“Long swings hard and has several underlying data elements that corroborate his statistical output to this point — better-than-average contact, hard-hit, and chase rates, as well as peak exit velocities — but we’re skeptical of it translating to the big leagues without incident because Long’s swing is, well, long.”
I didn’t ask Long about the length of his stroke, but I did bring up its ferocity, which I’d heard about previously.
“I have above-average bat speed,” he responded. “That plays into my exit velocities, which I think were around the 90th percentile last year. But it comes naturally. I don’t try to swing hard. When you’re in a game and have the adrenaline, and the ball is coming in faster, it’s just something that happens. You’re able to hit the ball harder when you do.
“I never try to hit home runs,” Long added. “When I actually try to swing harder, or try to create lift, I just create swing-and-miss. So, I just try to stay through the middle of the field. That naturally creates you pulling the ball on offspeed pitches, or shooting the ball to the opposite field on fastballs. That’s the approach I take.”
Which brings us to something else that Eric and James wrote:
“It takes a while for the bat to match the pitch plane in a way that enables him to turn on the baseball, and he ends up late to the contact point.”
“I’ve tried to pull the ball more, but I don’t naturally move that way well,” Long explained to me in Arizona. “I try to stick to what I’m good at, and if that leads to home runs, that’s what it does. If it doesn’t, I’ll make hard contact regardless. I’ve always hit the ball deep; I’ve always used right field a lot.”
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Sticking with what works for him doesn’t mean that Long has been averse to making changes. He had a leg kick in his first two collegiate seasons, but after struggling to hit high velocity while playing in the Cape Cod League in 2022, he went to a no-stride load. Four years later, he has another adjustment in mind.
“Last year, my groundball rate was a little high for my liking,” admitted Long, whose 45.9% groundball rate was far from ideal, as is this season’s nearly identical mark of 45.3%. “Instead of a 106-mph grounder to shortstop, I’d like to be driving the ball up the gap. The more OPS points, the better. It’s a matter of contact point. Same swing, but catching the ball to where I get it in the air. That’s something I need to get better at doing.”