Following a wild day of upsets in the top half of the draw, the bottom half takes the court on Friday with Alex de Minaur battling Jakub Mensik and two-time French Open finalist Casper Ruud taking on Tommy Paul.
(8) Alex de Minaur vs. (26) Jakub Mensik
De Minaur hasn’t exactly set the clay season on fire. He was bounced in the first round in both Madrid and Rome, and his 7-5 clay record in 2026 reflects someone finding his footing rather than commanding the surface. A semifinal run in Hamburg helped things along, and he enters the French Open third round with an unexpected luxury: two wins in the books, one of them a walkover, while the rest of the field sweated it out in the Paris heat. The 5-0 head-to-head over Mensik carries a caveat (they have never played on clay), but de Minaur’s movement and athleticism translate well enough here.
The real question is how much Mensik has left. The 20-year-old Czech fought through a brutal five-set match against Mariano Navone, 6-3, 2-6, 6-4, 1-6, 7-6(11) in 90-degree heat, cramping before he even served on match point and then collapsing on the court afterward.
He was furious about the conditions, calling the daytime scheduling “insane.” That’s nearly five hours of court time against zero for De Minaur. Whatever talent Mensik has on display this week, this is a rough spot to be in. De Minaur’s fresher legs and head-to-head edge are enough to get this done, even if Mensik digs in.
Cheryl pick: De Minaur in 4
Ricky pick: De Minaur in 4
(16) Casper Ruud vs. (24) Tommy Paul
Ruud’s clay credentials are well-documented at this point. He reached the final in Rome, and came into Roland Garros as an outside contender. He looked a bit ragged in a five-set first-round scare against Roman Safiullin, complaining the heat made him feel like a “zombie,” but his second-round dismantling of Hamad Medjedovic, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4, put that entirely to rest. His 2026 clay record sits at 14-4, and his career head-to-head over Paul is 4-2 — including a perfect 3-0 mark in Grand Slams.
Paul is actually good on clay, and not everyone gives him enough credit for it. He won the Houston title this spring, has put together back-to-back Italian Open semifinal runs in recent seasons, and his 11-3 clay record in 2026 is not a fluke. That said, the trend in their meetings is hard to argue with. Ruud is the more complete clay-court player, he has won their only clay meeting, and he is at a tournament where he has been in multiple finals. Paul will make him earn it, but this is Ruud’s wheelhouse.
Cheryl pick: Ruud in 4
Ricky pick: Ruud in 5