| 12:02 |
: Good morning from sunny Tempe, where the temps have begun to crank a bit. Check out the Orioles list if you haven’t yet. I’m working on Pirates next, Brendan on BoSox. Good systems, all. |
| 12:03 |
: How long until Seth Hernandez is the #1 pitching prospect in baseball?
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| 12:03 |
: I’d guess end of year he’s in the mix once he’s held this stuff for a whole season and hopefully thrown strikes against hitters who actually have a shot against him.
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| 12:04 |
: How are you feeling about Dylan Crews? Still a top prospect who just needs time in the minors? |
| 12:04 |
: I still think he’s so talented that he’s going to be good. Will he be franchise-altering? That outcome is leaving the building.
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| 12:06 |
: Have you seen anything like what Luis Hernandez and Josuar Gonzalez having been doing to start the ACL season?
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| 12:07 |
: Even though they play in a windy bandbox and have had many, many faulty prospects who’ve put up crazy numbers at any number of heir affiliates…. no. Not to this degree where they’ve got like numbers this nutty.
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| 12:09 |
: How are we feeling about Kahlil Watson at this point? Seems like he might be living up to the expectations he had when he was drafted. Still only 23 years old
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| 12:11 |
: Feel pretty good about where we had him when we did Cleveland list in January. Feels like a 45, contact rate is still toward the bottom of the scale (it’s been more 70%) but he’s getting to power reliably. Think he’s definitely a useful piece and I expect we’ll see him this year. |
| 12:11 |
: What’s the recalibrated projection for Eric Hartman?
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| 12:12 |
: Thanks for the chat! Any thoughts on Eric Hartman and John Gil for the Braves? Are these guys getting to the point of being in the top 100 conversation or are there things that give you pause?
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| 12:12 |
: Any reports you’ve heard about Eric Hartman, Tate Southisene or John Gil? Excited about the growth of the Braves system so far this year. |
| 12:12 |
: Should we be respecting Eric Hartman’s authority?
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| 12:16 |
: The data looks really great. 50% hard hit rate, 108 EV 90, 75% contact, 84% zone contact. Stiffer athlete, bat path is kinda funky and I still think there’s variability in how he handles secondary stuff as he’s promoted. CF defense feel isn’t great, but he easily has the speed to develop out there. Bat speed looks real to me to the eye even though it requires a ton of effort…
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| 12:16 |
: Was 33% hard hit rate guy last year, 108 max. So this guy has really, really changed and is definitely an arrow up dude. Reminds me a lot of when Jarren Duran started breaking out. |
| 12:17 |
: Wondering what’s your thoughts on Nolan Perry
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| 12:20 |
: Looks really good. Slipped thru the crack on the Jays list because he didn’t pitch last year. Prototypical frame, gorgeous arm action, advanced feel (for a guy coming off long term layoff, especially), love he breaking ball feel. Think the curveball is deep enough for it to play against lefties even if his change is only ever fine. Potential end of year top 100 guy if the innings count ends up around 100 frames.
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| 12:21 |
: I never thought Brice Turang would become this sort of offensive player. Did you? |
| 12:22 |
: No, pretty sure he’s swinging Julio Franco’s bat now (in that it’s crazy heavy) and that he way he’s lifted has cost him some on defense. Dark horse MVP candidate for me before the season but that assumed the defense piece would remain stellar.
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| 12:22 |
: Would it be offensive if Ike Irish‘s nickname was Irish, so he was called Irish Ike Irish?
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| 12:24 |
: I don’t think it’s offensive, but I also think we can do better. Whiskey Stick or something like that. Just riffing here at 9:30. |
| 12:24 |
: Any insight into the Luis Pena situation? The lack of info and circumstances don’t seem encouraging.
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| 12:24 |
: After last week’s chat I ended up getting a vague text from a Brewers source. Lemme dig it up for y’all…
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| 12:27 |
: |
| 12:28 |
: Love all the great prospects work. A big part of why I renew every year. In an upcoming minor league draft, the highest ranked prospects still available are probably Seth Hernandez, Eli Willits, Liam Doyle, and Luis Hernandez (SFG). This league is largely WAR-driven, and SS is typically a premium position. Based purely on long-term WAR, who would you take? Thanks!
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| 12:29 |
: Willits, then probably Sethy given how fast he’s moving.
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| 12:29 |
: That’s a nice group to get someone from, though.
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| 12:29 |
: Franklin Arias, Ethan Holliday, and Seth Hernandez end 2026 at ____ levels?
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| 12:29 |
: Triple, High-A, Double-A
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| 12:30 |
: Would you consider Wehiwa Aloy to currently be “arrow up?”
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| 12:30 |
: Nah, same grade I had at draft time. Chase piece of his profile is going to be more of an issue against upper level guys.
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| 12:31 |
: Hi Eric. Do you know when your next draft rankings update will be?
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| 12:31 |
: Shortly after conference tourneys
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| 12:31 |
: When I hear about kids throwing 100 in high school, I worry about the hitters who have to face them. Have you heard of anyone getting seriously hurt being hit by one of this pitches?
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| 12:32 |
: I’m way more worried about college pitchers getting hit with comebackers than the one or two HS kids across the country who sit 100 beaning someone in the exact wrong place. College exit velos are absurd.
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| 12:34 |
: Curious your take on the Cardinals catchers. I assume they package someone but do you see regulars in Crooks, Raniel and/or Bernal?
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| 12:35 |
: We do, Bernal more of a second division guy but the others are impact types. Crooks the defense piece I think will be a really big deal.
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| 12:35 |
: Feel like the Rays are the trade partner there
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| 12:35 |
: What do you make of the A’s DFA’ing Junior Perez? A lot of teams would have to consider picking him up right?
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| 12:37 |
: Yeah if you’re the Royals or the Cardinals I’d take a shot.
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| 12:37 |
: Are the Craig Breslow Red Sox good at developing pitchers or have they devoted all their draft resources into pitching
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| 12:39 |
: Yes to both, but kinda cookie cutter. Lots of guys who were already there got better after Breslow arrived but then you have your Kyle Harrison or two who’ve become meaningfully good after leaving… Mixed positive overall.
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| 12:39 |
: Has the Angels pitching development improved at all? Victor and Cortez have shown some promise and Ureña has been servicable.
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| 12:40 |
: Yes, Soriano, TGA, Slawinski, Jordan… Several examples as evidence it’s going better.
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| 12:40 |
: Eric, you were one of the highest on Yohandy Morales at the time of his drafting in 2023, but you’ve soured on him significantly since then, to the point he didn’t even make the Nationals’ top 41 prospects. He’s now sporting a 170 wRC+ in AAA (as well as a career 130wRC+). Anything about his season so far give you pause to reconsider his non-prospect status?
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| 12:43 |
: right right 1B only defender with no launch, 30-grade contact rate against fastballs. Late a lot of the time. Fringe guy.
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| 12:44 |
: You indicated last week that your opinion on Bolte hadn’t changed based on his performance this year. That’s fair, but I guess my question is, when can I buy into contact rate improvements for guys with hit tool questions? Bolte was up to 75.6% contact in 177 PAs when he got called up. Would you be buying in if he had put up that same rate for longer, or maybe if the magnitude of the change was greater?
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| 12:45 |
: You can buy it if you see tangible mechanical change or if you think injury is why he was less good before.
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| 12:45 |
: He’s gonna hit a lot of hard grounders and liners to the right side of the infield. If that excites you, ok.
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| 12:45 |
: When you boldly picked the A’s to win the AL West this year did you figure it would happen with Zack Gelof re-emerging and both Soderstrom and Butler in the toilet?
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| 12:45 |
: Lol no not a all, I did it because I liked their pitching depth better than Seattle’s.
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| 12:46 |
: Devin Fitz-Gerald has done nothing but hit HRs since you tagged him with 40 game power and a modest 45. If you’re wrong do you think there’s something in his approach or contact ability that you are just not seeing for whatever reason?
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| 12:46 |
: Devin Fitz-Gerald has to be moving to AA soon, hopefully an up arrow the rest of the season.
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| 12:47 |
: Certainly looking like i underrated the pop, just a product of seeing him when it was 35 degrees (he said sheepsihly)?
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| 12:47 |
: With DeVries playing some 3B do you think the A’s are looking to provide options, considering switching him, or just SSS noise?
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| 12:48 |
: Makes sense to have it as an option, their best lineup probably includes him and Jacob.
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| 12:49 |
: Anyone sticking out to you on the complex so far
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| 12:49 |
: Moral and De Los Santos in Pittsburgh. De Los Santos’ hands are so quick, Morel keeps growing and might end up built like Elly.
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| 12:49 |
: Mid season prospect draft, I got Kash Mayfield, John Gil & Eric Hartman. How did I do?
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| 12:50 |
: Solid. I need to join a league, mid-season supplemental popup guy draft sounds fun.
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| 12:50 |
: Hi Eric, long time listener, first time caller. I know are probably getting bombarded with questions about my son – but am VERY curious to see what you think of his start… I know, hes 21 and at Low A, but the velo spike seems legit? Brendan teased the Red Sox list but I cant wait until then. Thoughts?
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| 12:54 |
: You should be aware your son is now at Double-A Portland and started there on Sunday. He looks awesome. I don’t love his delivery but he’s basically answered the biggest stuff-related question I had before the draft: is there another offspeed pitch? Yes, we now have multiple plus breakers and a split. Delivery isn’t all that different from Yeasavage’s… nasty guy, really exciting, wanna see how the strike throwing progresses but I expect he’ll be 50’d and ranked with the other relief risk bois.
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| 12:55 |
: Has Christian Oppor’s rough start changed your outlook on him at all?
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| 12:55 |
: Delivery has regressed enough that I bet he slides next sweeping update
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| 12:55 |
: The A’s just released Junior Perez. Surely he’s worth a flier for a lot of teams out there?
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| 12:56 |
: Okay had to check. He was DFA’d, not released. See above. I was worried he had literally been released and I was gonna have to figure out what the hell happened.
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| 12:56 |
: Do you find defense to be very malleable? Anecdotally, it seems like a lot of the really good athlete, bad defense guys don’t tend to figure it out on the defensive side of the ball, but maybe they get the reputation of a + defender because they are fast etc.
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| 12:57 |
: Depends on newness to position but mostly I agree. It takes a long time to properly evaluate everyone’s defense and is very difficult to do well without the right tools or a long enough look, so it’s probably the thing public analysis is worst at
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| 12:57 |
: Does Kade Anderson have a true ace ceiling or is he just so much more advanced than minor leaguers at this point? Its early but he has video game numbers so far…
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| 12:58 |
: Looks nastier to me now than at LSU. Ace? That’s rich for me but I’m the guy who’d only apply it to like 5 guys at any given time (maybe just 3 right now). Really nasty guy who’s ready to rock this year.
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| 12:58 |
: Do you have a sense of how the new Yankees international department is different? Are they looking at different types of amateurs or taking a more spread the money approach? Do you have a sense of what they’ll do with their IFA money for 2026 and are they lining up prospects to replace the big money commitments they lost in future years?
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| 12:59 |
: A great, worthy question I honestly don’t have an answer to right now.
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| 12:59 |
: Something I’ve been curious about, are there any notable examples of established ‘org guys’ unlocking a new level and turning themselves back into prospects? Seems like something that could happen a bit in the era of Driveline etc
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| 12:59 |
: Nellie Cruz is the all time example of his
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| 12:59 |
: Hey Eric, hope you are well. This may be too niche for a chat topic and I know you aren’t quite at draft updates yet, but was curious about how teams are looking at and evaluating draft prospects differently now than pre-COVID years. It seems so much has changed in a short time and would be interesting to understand how teams have changed their approach in what still seems to be a mystery box area of prospect evaluation. Thanks!
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| 1:01 |
: More teams targeting potentially undervalued six figure HS players and either promoting them fast or flipping them for big leaguers quickly. Ronny Cruz, Fitz-Gerald, Zyhir Hope, etc. The real breakout guys have been those less famous kids. Proximity > for college players, teams wanna move you fast now.
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| 1:02 |
: Ok folks, I’ve got an appointment in 45 minutes and need to get ready. Next week’s chat may be impacted by college tournaments but I expect I’ll find a way to do usual time/place. Bye bye
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