Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 5/8/2026

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where the temps are going to hit 100 and (it looks like) stay there for the foreseeable future. Brendan and I are working on the Orioles system writeup, I’m working on draft update. Enjoying another day in in the desert. Thanks for being here.  

GB: Lonbard get a grade bump?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not just yet, it’s gonna be fascinating and instructive to see him and Volpe side by side for the next little bit.

Erick: not sure what you can do about this, but christian scott’s stuff+ numbers from last night aren’t showing on his page / game log despite last night’s showing for other players. just thought i’d pass it along

Eric A Longenhagen: What I’m looking at has them visible:

Eric A Longenhagen: Christian Scott – 2026 Pitching Game Logs | FanGraphs Baseball

Mr. Burrito: Sirota is old (23?) for his league (high A), and it feels obvious that he should jump. But he’s kinda stuck, as the Dodgers have a bunch of prospects at his position above him. Is this the actual (and maybe only) problem with spending free agent money in the way they have?

Eric A Longenhagen: If the problem is “we have too much talent” it’s not really a problem. He’s played 60 games at High A now, I agree we’re getting to the point where he should be promoted to stress test his hit tool (this guy still has a fairly sizeable hole in his swing up and away) against pitchers who can execute that location better, but then maybe a reason to hold him down is so that hole isn’t exposed and he retains trade value.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good prospect tho

Kate: Brandon Compton is doing pretty well at A+, but what is the sustainability of this kind of approach?  He’s like 70% three true outcomes right now.

Eric A Longenhagen: Usually when you’re striking out this much at this level it’s a bad sign. 34% swing rate (per Synergy, they’re usually behind by about a week, this is as of end of April), 57% contact rate (per his player page on our site, so cool we have that now) these are scary numbers indicating an intentionally passive guy who can really make contact

RVA_Empire: How do 1st round draft college players end up going to college in the first place? Are most developed into 1st rounders while in the college ranks or are they mostly already identified as top talents but for whatever reason (money, education, etc.) prefer the college route?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a mix. Sometimes the family is doing well financially and the number required to coax the player away from school is super high. Sometimes the player feels confident they can go to school and go 10th instead of 40th just because of the confidence teams gain in the player based on college performance (Matt McLain types), sometimes they develop a lot and have the same path (Chase Burns) sometimes they develop out of nowhere (Dollander). It’s a mix. There is only so much pool space in any given year, if you have a nutty high school class they can’t all sign

Oaktown Blues: Is Henry Bolte putting it all together offensively? 73.6% contact rate, 23.5% K rate, pulled (!) a 479 ft HR the other day

Eric A Longenhagen: I think at this point y’all know what I think about Bolte.

Kate: Guessing you might say I just need to wait for the Red Sox list, but curious if Enddy Azocar is looking like a possible breakout this year?  He torched the complex last year and is looking pretty good again in his second look at A ball so far.

Eric A Longenhagen: (nods aggressively)

Eric A Longenhagen: Just running into him as I did work on Nationals and now Orioles, he looks awesome. Starlyn Nunez‘s tools continue to beckon me, as well.

Rayball10: What’s the ceiling on Joshua Baez? And a realistic timeline to reach it?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he’s going to hit.

Kate: Any word on why we haven’t seen Diego Tornes in any complex games yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, idk, I’ll ask someone there but I don’t think I’m getting an answer. I saw him three times while I was in Florida, looked OK, not obviously awesome. Prototypical power hitter build, average bat speed, below avg barrel feel

Joe: Who typically handles scouting of MLB teams prospects internally? Does each team have a designated scout to do their evaluations of their own prospects or do they have multiple individuals from different departments give evaluations? Thank you

Eric A Longenhagen: A greater percentage of internal scouting will be done by upper echelon executives. For instance, the Dbacks pro scouting director, or assist GM, or player dev exec will spend time at each of their affiliates seeing their own players more than they will go scout Delmarva or whatever…

Eric A Longenhagen: Whether teams make it a point for the rank and file scouts to see their own guys varies team to team. If I scout for the Reds and part of my coverage is the Marlins system, I may see the Jupiter roster when they play Daytona so that I can get a look at our own guys.

Elijah: Results have been good for JT Quinn. But, some movement numbers published by BA showed a fairly untenable fastball shape (14/5), and that’s before accounting for the low-minors ball. Can you corroborate those numbers at all? And either way, does that write him off as a viable prospect in your mind?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’ll need his peak velo to make it an effective pitch, which means he’s probably a reliever. I still like him: two plus breaking balls, changeup isn’t bad, touched 99 the other day. Good multi inning relief prospect

Oaktown Blues: Perhaps a longshot, but any chance you were in attendance for Shotaro Morii‘s pitching debut yesterday?

Eric A Longenhagen: No I watched Boston Bateman‘s start with the live trackman open and yelled at the refs in the Flyers game through my TV

Casey Judson: Morning Sunshine. For an intellectually bankruptee, reciriculate is a pretty cool word, eh?   Have you heard any intel on the situation with Milwaukee’s Luis Pena? Still hasn’t played, little news.

Eric A Longenhagen: I texted someone, will let you know if i hear back

DJ Tofu: How much of Jonah Cox and Scott Bandura‘s improvement this season is real vs SSS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cox I like as a pinch running and defensive specialist, Bandura I think could be more. Big framed dude, great long term physical projection, runs well, has moved kinda quickly for a small school guy.

Joe: Why have teams like the Braves reduced their scouting staffs, particularly their National and Regional Crosscheckers? Is there enough data to say if it has had a negative effect or if the effect has been negligible? Thank you

Eric A Longenhagen: The Braves are a “small room” org, the decision makers there like to be the ones who do all the things. I can really sympathize with that as a guy who gets to participate in a facsimile of that kind of set up here at the site, and I also don’t love it from a scouting job environment/cultural standpoint. Is there data showing the effects? I don’t think so, it might be consequential when we’re talking about unearthing and correctly projecting interesting mid to late rounders if you think throwing scouts at that conundrum is the right answer. Ultimately I think your draft pick quality is less about process and more about whether the folks turning in the card know Jahlil Okafor is bad or not.

Joe: Is MLB not releasing the international bonus pools for next year at the same time as this years draft pools like they had done in years past hint at something ominous with the upcoming CBA expiring? Thank you

Eric A Longenhagen: ^^ This is as good a chat question as there can be. I don’t have an answer for you but I admire your attention to detail

JD: Do you see Snelling or Thomas White having a bigger impact with Miami ROS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Snelling because of the roster situation there. Unless the Marlins stay scrappy deep into the season, there’s basically no reason White should debut this year.

mike: is Caleb Bonemer’s start to the year encouraging or discouraging? on the surface he’s mashing, and being near the top of MiLB in dingers is cool for a guy who previously was regarded as merely plus in terms of power, but I can’t help but worry about his contact rate falling to the danger zone of ~67%. Even with the power he’s showing, that seems unsustainable

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s just so completely different than his previous contact marks that I’m inclined to say it’s a small sample thing.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he look pretty good, personally.

Brew Crew Fan: Can you give us an update on Luis Lara? 21 with a power surge in AAA, despite his size. Looking like an elite defender too.

Eric A Longenhagen: Love the player overall but don’t think he suddenly has above avg power or anything. Triple A hitting environment just does this. Remember when Tyler Black and Sal Frelick were slugging .500 at Triple A?

TJ: Is Jacob Johnson a guy? Delivery seems a little rough to me

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually *like* his delivery, he’s an athletic mover. Agree it needs polish. Needs to go see him in person, nice 300k juco pickup for Texas

Casey Judson: Has there ever been a player who didn’t return to normal after a hamate removal procedure? Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, there are many examples of players who took months and months to feel and hit like normal, but I’m struggling to remember if anyone was perma-effed by it.

DBRuns: Jace LaViolette is running a 42% K-rate (and 17% SwStr%) in 100+ PAs in high A. How concerning should that be for Cleveland fans?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not good, snake eyes on the “buy low” guy. I get why they did it and they’ve had success with this approach before (DeLauter for one) but sometimes regressing the player to his underclass/Cape performance is wrong because the player in fact got better or worse.

Avilas Angels: Seen or heard anything about Malachi Witherspoons early performance?  His walk rate seems to be lower than what may have been expected based on his college showing

Eric A Longenhagen: I was at his start in Ft Myers where he couldn’t get out of the first inning. Stuff was good, tho.

edges64: You previously had put down Marco Luciano as someone who would benefit from a change of scenery. With the Yankees AA affiliate he’s slashing .327/.410/.713 with 10 homeruns. Seems like he’s opened up his stance, is holding the bat more upright, and swing rate has gone up meaningfully from ~42% to 48%. I know it’s AA and he’s nearly 25 now, but are you buying the breakout? I can’t imagine the Eastern League has much worse pitching than the PCL he’s played in the last several season.

Eric A Longenhagen: I just think it’s too much to take at face value when the guy is playing multiple levels below his previous highest level of experience. Think about a big leaguer who you know to be bad, picture him in your mind. Do you think he’d crush double A? Me too

Mookie: Hi Eric, thoughts on Brody Bumila? 1st rounder?

Eric A Longenhagen: Freaky guy, I do. Better breaking ball than Schoolcraft, have to consider him a “strictly better” prospect than Kruz was twelve months ago.

Colton: Do you know if/when statcast numbers will be made available publicly for AA and A+ stadiums?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do not. I think we may have to wait until after the CBA and have a better understanding of what affiliates might again get cut before they start installing tech in the places it isn’t yet.

Javier Herrerasaurus: Would a sauropod’s neck length impact his strike zone under ABS?  Or would it be strictly based on his shoulders and thus neck wouldn’t factor into the occasion?  Would drastically alter his approach.

Eric A Longenhagen: Where is his belt line?

NatsFan: From your (great) Nats writeup, know you’ve not thought much of YoYo Morales, noting he’s been incredibly vulnerable to fastballs, with a sub-70% contact rate against since the start of 2025. He is now leading Rochester in OPS, HRs, +.  Any reason to hope he might’ve figured something out?

Eric A Longenhagen: When I asked someone in their org for feedback on the list I was told they see him and Wallace as having big league value. Take that as you will. Pretty fringe-y guy for me.

Tyler: With the end of team list season in sight, did you have a favorite/least favorite team system to review this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I always love doing Tampa and Boston and they’re still on deck. I don’t think I’ve rolled my eyes at any group yet, I kinda get amped to start from scratch every time we finish one and move onto the next.

Eric A Longenhagen: Milwaukee group is bonkers, they were fun. I guess if there’s one thing I’m bummed about it’s being less involved with Dbacks than usual. because of Beeg’s comfort with the org they were one of his first lists and I’ve done very little on them

Jay: How close are the promotions for Tibbs, Waldschmidt, Clark, Condon, Ramirez? Maybe further away for Tibbs & Ramirez due to parent club success & depth?

Eric A Longenhagen: I would say Waldschmidt is closest because of team need. Which Ramirez are you talking about? Pedro? He’s blocked. Condon isn’t exactly killing it right now (Jim Halpert take to camera)

Peter: On pure upside, Ryan Sloan > Kade Anderson? Seems like Anderson is a pretty solid bet to be a 2/2.5, while Sloan could be a true ace or 3?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you but Anderson *is* looking buck nasty. And let’s remember that, while I’d consider LSU a good program, Skenes got better after he left and Eyanson has too

Eric A Longenhagen: So maybe the notion that the cement was dry on ANderson (which I ascribed to pre draft) was not correct

Will: Did you catch that Keith was the first guy through the wall to not mock Roch to Chi? Should I have not bought a jersey in every color for Christmas?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the last time Keith was an early deviant in this way was mocking Henry Davis 1. I owe him a phone call, Keith I’m gonna call you in a few.

Guest: Brendan’s been doing a good job drawing a distinction between “bat speed” as a scouting term and as a statcast term. Have you seen that or have anything to add?

Eric A Longenhagen: He and I are not exactly in agreement there. He’s more incorporating twitch and quickness, like a lack of length contributes to practical bat speed in his view. He would maybe say Benge lacks bat speed. I think Benge has good bat speed but is super duper long to the ball, which is more in line with the way statcast defines those terms. His version of bat speed is more like my definition of footspeed: let’s maybe not take such a hard reductionist approach and instead think about its most practical application

20longyears: He’s graduated from prospect status, but Braxton Ashcraft has been quite good this season and last. What would you expect from him going forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still really like him, monster breaking stuff, holds big velo. Good team’s mid rotation guy

Eric A Longenhagen: Per usual you guys have great questions stacked up in the queue but my time has expired. I really think over the last year or so that the quality of these chats have hit a new gear because of the regulars here. Thanks a lot. I’m gonna hop back on Orioles before I head to a game tonight. Talk to you hosers next week

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, I got no Luis Pena response btw, will update in the comments if I do

Eric A Longenhagen: (peace sign)