| 12:16 |
: Hey, chatters. We’ll get underway in 10 minutes, or so. Get your questions in. |
| 12:27 |
: Okay, good morning everyone. Thanks for your patience. Quicker chat today due to a vet visit.
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| 12:27 |
: Do you think Seth Hernandez makes it to AA by the end of the year? Do you think he could debut by the end of next year? Is his upside Bubba Chandler but throws strikes more consistently?
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| 12:29 |
: I think they’ll make him sustain success with Greensboro before promoting him, but I do think the end of next year (late enough for him to retain rookie eligibility in 2028) is possible. Don’t give up on Bubba throwing strikes yet, he’s too young to be this impatient and conclude he won’t. |
| 12:29 |
: Joseph Dzierwa real?
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| 12:30 |
: To an extent. I think his ceiling is limited by his breaking ball quality. I don’t think he’s an ace or anything like that, but lefties with good changeups and command tend to be nice rotation pieces.
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| 12:31 |
: I’m a prospect guy living in PA. How should I maximize the AllStar game coming to town? Ticket to the Futures Game, sure. But is it open way early for batting practice? Is that worth it? And how about the draft. Looks like it might be free, but also pretty boring. And will I still be able to make fun of face painted yahoos at the NFL draft?
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| 12:33 |
: The Futures Game tends to have open gates for BP, I’m sure there will be gate opening info if you end up buying tickets. BP and infield are sometimes the most important part of the day for me. I can say, for me, the draft is like a 10-hour adrenaline rush from getting out a final mock right before they start to writing a recap into the wee hours of the morning.
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| 12:33 |
: Any encouraging signs for Tyson Lewis now that he’s back? |
| 12:34 |
: 62% contact rate isn’t good.
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| 12:35 |
: Have you added up how many players will graduate off The Board’s Top 100 because of MLB playing time?
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| 12:35 |
: The right margin of the Prospect landing page has the playing time counter. Prospects Coverage | FanGraphs Baseball |
| 12:35 |
: Currently has a year label error, working on fixing that.
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| 12:36 |
: [skimming Tampa Bay prospects list]
Mike Elias you will pay for your crimes |
| 12:36 |
: Not the best track record of triaging players, dating back to Houston
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| 12:37 |
: Any reports of non-elite DSL guys popping so far? Guys like albert fermin and Diego frontado have been quite good from a stat line perspective so far and came with some pedigree.
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| 12:38 |
: Frontado feels like pyrite, smaller guy swinging hard grooved through down-and-in portion of the zone. Fermin has more of “the look”. |
| 12:39 |
: Is there enough in luke Stevenson bat to be a top 100 guy? Or is this more of a meh offensive profile (which i guess could still be top 100 at catcher)?
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| 12:40 |
: A little too much K and not enough SLG for a guy in Everett imo. Hitting environment there is crazy and part of why there were false starts on Tyler Locklear etc.
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| 12:40 |
: As I read through various predictions for the MLB draft, the consistent theme is that the Angels will take a player who can move quickly through the minors, like Bremner… Like Christian Moore… Like Bachman… Like Ben Joyce… Like Ky Bush… Like Nolan Schanuel etc etc |
| 12:40 |
: Their m.o. at the top is what it is but they’ve made some adjustments with how they spend $$$ later, bunch of good HS arms lately.
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| 12:41 |
: Christian Zazueta has had absolutely dominant back-to-back performances in A+ then AA. I don’t see many holes in his game from limited viewing and scouting his stat lines, is he a T100 guy soon?
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| 12:43 |
: Yep, 93-97 t99, changeup projecting to plus, cutter and sweeper, has added some spin to his breakers which weren’t good last year. He’s a dude, a Pick to Click who has. |
| 12:43 |
: Adrian Peña’s results this year appear less than great. Obviously it’s a small sample. What are you hearing on him? I know he’s very raw but how concerned are you about his rate of growth and potentially not appearing to take a step forward so far?
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| 12:44 |
: 6-foot-7 18-year-old throwing hard (scraping 99) but with zero mechanical consistency or strikes.
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| 12:44 |
: Gotta monitor and value him because the size and arm strength combo is freaky.
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| 12:45 |
: Warel Solano didn’t play for a while this year and is off to a slow start. Just SSS and you nothing to be worried about? It sounds like you still really like the tools and you think the bat profiles well in the OF?
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| 12:45 |
: Had enough of a hit tool and body projection blend for me to value him like a third rounder even though he’s an outfielder now.
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| 12:46 |
: Shunpeita Yamashita apparently had the brace procedure in April. Is he still likely to be among the headliners coming over after the ’27 season?
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| 12:46 |
: Tough to call him a headliner anymore when he hasn’t been healthy for multiple seasons.
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| 12:46 |
: It’s a bummer, at 20-21 he looked like a stud.
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| 12:46 |
: Who were the biggest up arrow high school guys at the combine?
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| 12:49 |
: I thought Maniscalco had a great day one, Taj Marchand’s swing is super long and funky but holy cow does he have power for such a skinny, projectable guy, Bo Lowrance, Luke Williams, Lucas Narwocki all had good BPs. Condon had a good BP but didn’t run great yesterday.
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| 12:49 |
: It was a good event, as usual.
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| 12:49 |
: Has Charlie Condon proved himself a legit prospect? Since the day he was drafted he seems to have had many doubters and fallen down prospect rankings.
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| 12:52 |
: I was more on the doubter side before the draft. He was swinging harder last Fall and I thought maybe he was turning a corner. Instead 69% contact rate this year, struggling with spin, raw power is plus but the contact quality is limiting how often he can get to it. Not a bad prospect by any means, just not the godlike college hitter transitioning seamlessly to pro ball
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| 12:52 |
: Congrats on finishing the reports for 2026, Eric! Gotta be a good feeling.
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| 12:53 |
: It is indeed, onto the draft list update and more.
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| 12:53 |
: It’s finally time to talk Rays prospects!! Woohoo! I’ve seen a few outlets note that Gillen’s right/left splits limit his ceiling a bit. I didn’t notice anything about them in your write-up – any concerns from you there?
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| 12:54 |
: The power dips but he’s still been a 78% contact rate guy against lefties this year, 11% chase.
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| 12:54 |
: “a move made necessary by a labrum surgery in high school that left him without the kind of arm needed to play the infield” what are the differences between an IF/OF arm besides velocity?
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| 12:55 |
: The manner in which you throw from the infield versus the outfield is often very different.
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| 12:55 |
: Challenge trade idea: Red Sox send Jarren Duran to the Pistons for Jalen Duren. Who says no?
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| 12:56 |
: The band Duran Duran sues this question for copyright infringement.
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| 12:56 |
: Hey, we did it.
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| 12:57 |
: Congrats on your first cycle, sir. It was my tenth and I have the posture to prove it.
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| 12:57 |
: How would you rate JJ Wetherholt‘s debut vs expectations? He’s not hitting for a ton of power but he has been able to pull fly balls decently well, though that might have cost him some line drives.
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| 12:58 |
: The defensive value piece of it is way beyond my expectations. On offense the tool projections have been pretty much bang on.
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| 12:58 |
: Gillen getting the bump to a 50 on the Rays list has me wondering if a guy has ever blown up so hard between updates that you’ve gone up multiple grades in one go (particularly at the higher end of the scale, would imagine it’s more common towards the back end)
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| 1:00 |
: Because it’s a value grade it tends to be one chunk at a time. Made was a big leaper from the DSL to like top 20ish. Duno I stuffed pretty hard from 45+ to 55 in one update. Merrill went from 45 to 55 pretty fast.
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| 1:00 |
: Thoughts on Alexander Frias hit and power tools?
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| 1:01 |
: Enormo power potential, swing is super busy and late a lot of the time but his hands move the barrel around nicely in the bottom two thirds of the zone. Huge ceiling, definitely has some warts and risk. Really fun prospect who’ll be stuff when we update Brewers.
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| 1:01 |
: How do you pronounce Taitn?
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| 1:01 |
: As if you were combining “taint” and “titan”
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| 1:02 |
: Eric Booth is not in your Top 50 draft prospects. Do you have reason to believe he’s going to school, or are you softer on him than we read elsewhere?
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| 1:02 |
: That’s from January and I need to update.
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| 1:02 |
: I guess I meant Wandy Asigen since I missed the earlier Frontado note
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| 1:02 |
: Asigen has had a hammy issue and hasn’t played yet
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| 1:02 |
: Is Kade Anderson likely to get an FV bump up from 50 when you guys audit lists?
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| 1:02 |
: Yeah
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| 1:03 |
: How’re feeling about Raniel Rodriguez? 391/481/717 w/ 18.5 K% the last 11 games at AA and he’s just 19. Do the Cardinals move him off C (LF? 1st? 3rd?) because his bat is moving faster than any catcher can develop defense?
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| 1:03 |
: Waiting for them to do a three-teamer with the Rays to unjam some of those logs.
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| 1:04 |
: Last CBA lockout, they still had signing day for “J2” players. Do you expect that to happen this year? I say that as a scared Braves fan that hopes Alfredo Sena is still ours.
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| 1:05 |
: I do not, I think if the league can find a way to stall and push the international signings another six months they’re going to do it. Between covid and a lockout thru January they’ll have successfully shifted int’l classes back a full year.
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| 1:05 |
: A little old for A ball, but Brady Smith is looking phenomenal peripheral- and stuff-wise. Any notes there?
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| 1:06 |
: His stuff is real, the strikes were very much not there last year but seem better now. 93-97, 19 inches of vert, elite results with the changeup
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| 1:06 |
: Seaver King has had a nice season so far. Your writeup on him this spring was pretty bearish. Any change to your thoughts on him?
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| 1:07 |
: Still has such an extreme oppo contact profile that I’m wary.
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| 1:08 |
: As we get into Mock season, what do you expect the Braves approach to be with their early picks, and how would you approach it in this draft if you were them?
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| 1:10 |
: I think there are enough good college players in range at 9 (Tyler Bell, then maybe a little gap to Drew Burress and Ryder Helfrick) that it makes sense to stand pat and take one of them rather than try to cut a deal in effort to sneak a bigger fish back to the Drake Baldwin PPI pick.
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| 1:10 |
: Murf Gray continues to hit since you did his Pirates’ write up. Are you starting to believe that he is more than a 45 FV?
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| 1:12 |
: The chase and defense pieces are still dicey enough that I’m fine with it. Had him toward the back of the first round last year, ya know? It’ll be funny to go from being $2 million higher on him than the industry, to the low man without changing his grade.
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| 1:12 |
: Higher ceiling Rays DSLer, Antunez or Solano ?
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| 1:12 |
: Antunez is stateside homie
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| 1:12 |
: I remember you once said in these chats that you (and perhaps prospect people more broadly) tend to under index the number of guys whose hit tools are good enough to make up for fringey power once they make the show. Is antonacci looking like a candidate for that category of guy?
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| 1:13 |
: Yes
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| 1:13 |
: Any chance of seeing any of De Paula, M. Clark, Made, De Vries or F. Arias up this year?
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| 1:14 |
: De Paula if he’s traded, Clark if the Tigers sell, De Vries if they’re still in it at the end and think he’s better than Muncy/McNeil or if Gelof stops hitting, Made and Arias are tough to see debuting.
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| 1:14 |
: What is the biggest impact of the potential MLB labor stoppage for minor leaguers, in your opinion?
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| 1:14 |
: Well remember they’re different unions and the minors would go on like normal, excluding guys on the 40-man roster.
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| 1:15 |
: Atlanta has had a nice year on the farm – arguably one of their best from top to bottom in quite a while. Is it just one of those things that can happen, or have they made any systemic changes that are bearing fruit?
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| 1:16 |
: They’re good at drafting and have tended to so aggressively promote players that they don’t hang around the minors long enough to make their farm system look good. They’ve also been competitive often enough that they rarely make sellers’ trades for prospects. Even though their system has historically not ranked highly, it’s clear the spice is flowing.
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| 1:17 |
: My biased two cents is that a draft model is wonderful in theory but it risks being “garbage in, garbage out” unless the model is strong at the biomechanical level. Are there any teams still rigidly adhering to their draft models when those models aren’t able to leverage joint position data? Are those teams less likely to retain top-tier amateur scouts?
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| 1:18 |
: There are definitely teams who are better utilizing biomech data in their models than others and some, among the users, who are better at collecting it in the field than others. My intuition is that most teams who are objectively assessing aspects of athleticism rather than doing so visually are the ones more likely to fire scouts.
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| 1:19 |
: Thanks Eric! Given the buzz around Angeibel Gomez’s start, how likely do you think the Royals bump him up later this summer to the complex league?
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| 1:19 |
: Most of the big bonus kids stay in DSL the whole first year for tax purposes. Maybe during instructs but not ACL.
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| 1:20 |
: Okay friends, gonna keep it to 50 minutes today as I have some life stuff to tend to at 11 and need to get ready. Fun list cycle, glad to be done and work on other things.
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