Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.
To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.
These Expected Goals stats from Nottingham Forest 1 Newcastle United 1:
Nottingham Forest 1.19 Newcastle United 1.55
As you can see, Newcastle’s Expected Goals stat comfortably higher than Forest’s.
It wasn’t the best of matches but United for sure the superior team and created more and better clear chances.
As usual on Sunday, there was no lack of effort from the Newcastle United players. The United players ran a total of 114.61km, whilst it was 108.44km for the Forest players. The failings this season have tended to be down to a lack of inspiration and not perspiration. Lack of effort hasn’t been at fault.
Last weekend at St James’ Park when NUFC won 3-1, the Expected Goals stats were Newcastle United 3.25 Brighton 1.64. Whilst the United players ran a total of 110.27km in that game, 108.07km for the Brighton players.
At Arsenal a similar story as the most recent two matches, although of course Newcastle on the losing side that day. Arsenal with an expected goals stat (0.64) almost 50% lower than Newcastle’s (0.91) but a stunning long range effort won it for the Gunners, whilst the likes of Osula, Burn, Tonali and especially Wissa failed with their chances.