Last Sunday, the White Sox defeated the Tigers, 2-1, to complete a weekend sweep on the South Side of Chicago. With the win, they pulled their playoff odds up to 20.3%. It was the first time those odds had been above 20% since April 12, 2023. The Sox dropped back below the 20% threshold on Monday with a loss to the Twins, and they enter their weekend series against the Phillies in Philadelphia with a 17.4% chance to reach the postseason, so it’s still way too early to declare them true contenders.
But unlike some of the other American League clubs off to unexpected hot starts, such as the Rays and Guardians, Chicago’s underlying performance supports its strong showing thus far. The White Sox have outperformed both their Pythagorean and BaseRuns records by just one win. The Rays are six and seven wins ahead of their Pythagorean and BaseRuns records, respectively, while the Guardians have exceeded their Pythagorean record by three wins and their BaseRuns mark by five. The A’s, the other AL team that surprised over the first two months of the season, endured a brutal 2-7 stretch to close out May and bring their record closer to their peripherals. Even so, all three of those teams enter the weekend with better playoff odds than the White Sox: the Rays at 83.1%, the Guards at 77.7%, and the A’s at 37.4%. That makes sense. Remember, a team’s Pythagorean and BaseRuns records only account for what’s already happened. Our Playoff Odds project future performance and factor in far more than just the first 10 weeks of play. Understanding that shouldn’t undermine the excitement that Sox fans are feeling right now; if anything, it should provide them with greater incentive to enjoy their team’s success while they can, for however long it lasts.
That’s the last you’ll read about the 2026 White Sox in this week’s mailbag. Instead, we’ll be answering your questions on the best system for bringing amateur talent into baseball, whether the Mets are paying more per win than any team ever, the new Hall of Fame pitching golden ticket, and more. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.