Rafael Jodar continued his rapid ascension up the pro ranks with a 7/6 4/6 6/1 win over fellow teen Joao Fonseca in the third round of the Madrid Masters on Sunday. Jodar and Fonseca were nearly teammates in college tennis a few years ago.
Back in December I was asked in a mail bag which young player I had my eye on for 2026. Jodar was top of that list, largely because he had a long physique and forehand slot position that was always going to print massive speed and spin stats:
His start to the year on hardcourts was fine for a rookie, but since switching to the clay Jodar has minced most of the competition, winning a 250 title in Marrakech, and reaching the semifinals in Barcelona, where a red-hot Arthur Fils was physically too strong in a great match of power shotmaking.
Here in Madrid, the atmosphere was FIFA-esque despite the 11pm start time, with Fonseca’s ever-present Brazilian fans proving equally loud against the local hope.
Stylistically, Fonseca and Jodar are similar: big bodies slinging the felt at triple-digit speeds and dizzying spin rates. But having seen more of both in recent weeks, there are subtle differences in how they go about their games. Jodar’s forehand is a little heavier (spin) on average, his swing is longer, and he likes to get on the front foot (left) more often, like Sinner. He averaged 3224 rpm tonight to Fonseca’s 2909 rpm (though their 52-week averages are only separated by around 150 rpm).
On the backhand (in general, and in this match) you get the sense that Fonseca is happier to trade, whereas Jodar wants to hurt you close in, and rush you from ball one. The Spaniard stepped in on his front foot more aggressively, and from more attacking court positions, and it was a pivotal shot on numerous occasions:
What does that difference in footwork aggression look like? I have no data for this but one quirk I’ve noticed Fonseca nearly always does on his backhand second-serve return is this little double-pivot where he turns both toes/feet left after the split-step and lifts his right foot off the ground. It’s not the preferred footwork for attacking second serves, and I see this all the time from him. Compare to Jodar, who’s right foot doesn’t pivot after the split-step — it stays grounded and helps him push off that leg to keep his forward momentum — which is a more aggressive way to return the second-serve. I rarely ever see Fonseca step in like Jodar nearly always does:
And if you watch that match with a keen eye on that you’ll notice it over and over again. Jodar was getting on top of the high second-serves and playing downhill with his backhand at every opportunity in the rally.
Beyond the technicalities, I think there was a general tentativeness from Fonseca that we’ve rarely seen thus far in his career. Whether that was because the early game plan was to get the ball low to Jodar with slice and generally mix it up, or simply nerves of playing a younger opponent, I don’t know. Early on that tactic was paying dividends:
But Madrid is altitude clay. Aggression is rewarded here, and neither of these youngsters are great from end-range yet. You felt whoever was the aggressor had the upper hand:
“It was the first time I was facing an opponent younger than me on the ATP circuit, and that made me nervous. It’s a situation I need to get used to. The most important thing in today’s match was the mental aspect. My attitude on court needs to be better. It’s an area I need to work on.”
— Fonseca, from José Morón
There were moments of brilliance from Fonseca:
But overall the variety often looked more like a lack of intent from Fonseca, and his identity as The Forehand Kid looked shaken (and perhaps, stolen?).
Jodar comes at you hard and fast and doesn’t let up. Look at the breakdown of their shots tactically. Jodar hit 92% of his groundstrokes as “core shots” — topspin through the baseline — compared to Fonseca’s 76%. For a comparison, when Fonseca played Sinner in Indian Wells, the Brazilian played 86.4% as core shots.
And just to drive the point home:
There was a level of conviction with Jodar that just stayed all the way through the finish line. Match point was a beauty:
Who’s a good comp for Jodar? Maybe Tomas Berdych is a decent name, although Jodar’s forehand has much more spin. But both guys looked to play hard and through you, and they got on the front foot at every opportunity. I also think the serve is underdeveloped given his height, and there’s a lack of physicality and end-range explosiveness off the ground that might end up hurting him in best-of-five formats for now, but these are good problems to have once you’re already on tour; while he took a little longer to arrive, he was spending that time sharpening the axe:
“I’m very, very happy with my level,” Jodar said. “I’ll just try to recover well and think about the next match.”
“Joao is always a very tough player, so these matches are decided by very small details and various small points. I think I did a great job in those points, trying to play my game.”
— Rafael Jodar for atptour.com
Yes I had both in my Fantasy Team!
Alright that’s all I got. Looking forward to seeing how this plays out. I’ll see you in the comments. HC.