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Fonseca with another statement win against Ruud, can he win Roland Garros?

Fonseca with another statement win against Ruud, can he win Roland Garros?

This years edition of the French Open has been kind of crazy, but very entertaining, and it’s the year of the underdogs. One of the young players that really seem to have taken the “next step” is Joao Fonseca.

Just over 48 hours after coming from two sets down to topple Novak Djokovic in a five-hour, instant classic, Joao Fonseca took to Court Philippe-Chatrier against two-time Roland Garros finalist Casper Ruud. What we were wondering, can the 19-year-old possibly back it up?

The answer, delivered over nearly four hours on a Sunday night in Paris, was yes.

Fonseca downed Ruud 7-5, 7-6(8), 5-7, 6-2 to reach the quarter-finals at a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in his career. It was a match that had no right to be as good as it was, given everything both players had already been through in previous matches.

The Match – Fonseca v Ruud

We saw nearly four hours of high-quality tennis, three sets decided 7-5 or 7-6, and almost no breaks of serve until the final exchanges.

Ruud was not a pushover here, he never is on this surface. He also played a pair of five-setters in his first three rounds, against Roman Safiullin to begin his tournament and against Tommy Paul in the third, saving match points to beat the American. He’s been in two Roland Garros finals and knows what it takes to get there.

And yet Fonseca took the opening set on a single break in the 12th game, working through eleven straight holds before finally finding the crack. The second set was where things got tense. Fonseca was broken once, broke straight back, and from 2-2 the set ran on serve to a tie-break where Ruud led 5-2 before Fonseca clawed back.

Then came an important moment. At 8-7 to Ruud in the second-set tie-break, a Fonseca forehand landed near the baseline. Someone shuoted “out”, causing Ruud to stop play but it was later ruled in by the umpire. Fonseca then went on to close the set at 10-8

Ruud regrouped and took the third set 7-5, a mirror image of the first. Then Fonseca broke Ruud on his first service game of the fourth and broke him again at 1-3 to lead 4-1. Fonseca showed no sign of panic and raced to a 5-1 lead, then served the win out to love.

Both players fired 51 winners and produced 52 unforced errors. This was a war between two players of similar level, decided by the tightest of margins and the biggest of moments.

The Forehand…

The forehand of Fonseca is something that differs from most players though. The racket head speed, the shape through the ball, the willingness to unload on high balls with full swing from awkward positions. He generates topspin without sacrificing pace, which is a combination very few players possess naturally. On clay, where the bounce sets the ball up in his strike zone, it becomes a genuine weapon and players can not afford to give him fairly easy balls on his forehand.

The Quarter-Final: Fonseca vs Mensik

Fonseca will face Czech 26th seed Jakub Mensik in the quarter-finals, the 20-year-old who survived Andrey Rublev in five sets earlier on Sunday. He is now the first Brazilian man to reach the quarterfinals of Roland Garros since Gustavo Kuerten in 2004 (he was there watching the match against Ruud). 

Fonseca leads Mensik 1-0 in their head-to-head, having beaten the Czech en route to the title at the 2024 Next Gen ATP Finals. But that was a different tournament, a different surface and a different context entirely. Mensik on clay at a Slam quarterfinal is a different proposition. He collapsed to the clay with cramps upon edging Mariano Navone in a fifth-set tiebreaker after 4 hours and 41 minutes in the second round, then defeated Alex de Minaur in four sets despite losing the opening set 6-0. He is physically tested. He is also mentally seasoned in ways that a player his age should not yet be.

This is going to be yet another fascinating match. Two young talents, in great form, both capable of a big serve and a violent forehand.

In what has become something of a youth movement in the bottom half of the men’s draw, Fonseca and Mensik are joined by 19-year-old Rafael Jodar and Alexander Zverev. With Sinner, Djokovic, and Alcaraz all gone from the draw, this half is wide open. You could genuinely look at this section and say Fonseca has a path to the final.

Can Fonseca win Roland Garros?

It might be too much to ask, but far from impossible. The physical load he has taken on is enormous. He has played five-set tennis, he has played four-set tennis, he has navigated pressure moments that would shake out most veterans. The margins will surely tighten as the week goes on and we know he has shown inconsistencies before.

Zverev is the only proven Slam finalist left standing in the bottom half, and even he has looked beatable this fortnight. If Fonseca beats Mensik on Tuesday and finds Zverev in the semi, then we are in uncharted territory.

Joao Fonseca is not afraid of this stage, that we know.

“I knew the win against Djokovic was gonna put a lot of hype and a lot of imagination that I could be satisfied or whatever. I just tried to enter today very focused,” he said afterwards.

In the past 40 years at the French Open, this is just the fifth time we have two teenagers (Fonseca and Jodar) in the final eight and it feels like anyone can claim the trophy now.

In the outright betting odds for the 2026 French Open winner, Fonseca is now second favorite at odds 4.75 while Zverev still remains the most expected winner.

Who’s your bet for the final this year?

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