The all-Italian rivalry between Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Arnaldi has played out everywhere from under-10 championships in their home country to the biggest stage in all of tennis that is a Grand Slam. They have already faced each other at the French Open, but last year’s meeting came in the second round. Friday’s semifinal showdown will be something else entirely.
Unsurprisingly, neither man has played in a match of this magnitude. Cobolli, 24, had previously advanced to one major quarterfinal — losing to Novak Djokovic last summer at Wimbledon. Arnaldi, 25, had never reached a slam quarter, had been to the fourth round only twice, and had advanced out of the third round just three times.
It look like Arnaldi would once again hit the fourth-round wall at Roland Garros. On Monday night, the world No. 104 trailed Frances Tiafoe two sets to one and 4-1, 40-15 with the American serving in set four. Somehow, though, Arnaldi clawed back for a 7-6(5), 6-7(5), 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-4 victory. That was preceded by a 6-4, 6-7(5), 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(10-4) defeat of Raphael Collignon, so there is a ton of mileage on his legs even though he got a second-set retirement from compatriot Matteo Berrettini on Wednesday.
By comparison, Cobolli has cruised in Paris. The world No. 14 disposed of Andrea Pellegrino, Yibing Wu, and Learner Tien in straight sets before beating both Zachary Svajda and Felix Auger-Aliassime in four. Cobolli was especially impressive throughout the last three sets against Auger-Aliassime on Wednesday, finishing off that contest 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.
On the pro tour, Arnaldi leads the head-to-head series 3-2 (all five meetings on clay, 1-1 at the ATP level, 2-1 in Challengers/Futures). However, their 2025 Roland Garros encounter was a 6-3, 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-1 decision in Cobolli’s favor.
After the matchup 12 months ago that was mostly dominated by Cobolli, these two Italian’s went in different directions. Cobolli’s rise coincided with Arnaldi’s disappearance from the top 100 (although the former world No. 30 will be comfortably back inside that number regardless of Friday’s result). With Cobolli in superior form and having spent far less time on court, the 10th seed should should have a significant edge against his friend and countryman.
Pick: Cobolli in 3