Well, here we are in mid-April….the National Hockey League’s regular season has almost reached its conclusion and the Winnipeg Jets’ playoff hopes have all but evaporated. While our club hasn’t been mathematically eliminated, the True Northers have just a 0.5% chance at qualifying (according to MoneyPuck).
A slew of injuries (137 games missed by Winnipeg’s top 15 players) and too many underperforming secondary scorers has seen our Jets go from soaring with the NHL’s elite franchises to mired in the mud with the league’s bottom feeders in just one season. If you took your DeLorean time machine back in time one full year, you would find the True Northers with 114 points on the season with only 2 games to play (would split those games). Compare that to today, where Winnipeg’s 82 points with 3 games left has them with a disappointing 32 points less. Quite the swing.
Unless the Jets go on a 3 game winning streak to end the season, I don’t think they will rise out of the NHL’s bottom 10….which would give them a minimum of 3.5% chance at getting their ball picked for the 1st & 2nd spots in the Lottery Draft. It would also make falling out of the top 11 as unlikely as Winnipeg’s chances to make the playoffs this year…and if they remain with the 9th best odds then the 10th selection should be the farthest they drop.
There is still an opportunity for some movement at the bottom of the standings, however I think the Jets would have to get very lucky to fall as far as the 7th worst franchise. Before I share my thoughts on any potential shifting of positions, lets look at ESPN’s graphic showing the NHL’s bottom 13 teams (includes all clubs WPG could potentially pass):
Right now, the immediate focus for the Winnipeg Jets’ fans is the tie in the standings the True Northers have with the San Jose Sharks. Both clubs have 3 games remaining and will square off in their final contest of the season, possibly determining exactly which team ends up with better odds in the Lottery. Yet, the Sharks have less challenging opposition as they will play the Nashville Predators & Chicago Blackhawks compared to the Jets matching up against the Vegas Golden Knights & Utah Mammoth (both playoff teams).
The team with the best odds to pass Winnipeg is the St. Louis Blues, as they are sitting with 2 pts less and an equal amount of games left to play. The Jets’ Central Division rivals own the first tie-breaker, so if they could manage to tie our club in points, the Blues could finish higher in the standings. However, even with their 6-3-1 record over the past 10 contests, they will be tested by opposition like the Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins, & Utah Mammoth (all playoff teams).
I have eliminated the Seattle Kraken as a team that could pass our Jets, even though they have enough available points remaining to do that. A 3-5-2 record over their past 10 games and the quality of their remaining schedule (LA, VEG, COL) make it rather unlikely. The Florida Panthers remain a possibility, even though they only have 2 games left to make up the 2 pt deficit (Cats own 1st tie-breaker) since they play non-playoff teams like the New York Rangers & Detroit Red Wings. Add that to the fact that they have secured a bottom 10 finish, which means they will keep the 2026 1st rounder and send a future one instead to complete a previous trade. Maybe they could win both matches to make it interesting?
Alright……enough of that. Time to dive into Monday’s late game between…..
WPG Jets @ VEG Knights
Start Time: 9:00 pm Central – T-Mobile Arena
Winnipeg (35-32-12) is in 24th place in the NHL with 82 points on the season, scoring 225 Goals For (26th) and allowing 243 Goals Against (tied for 11th). Mark Scheifele leads the Jets with 65 assists and 99 points. Kyle Connor is the goal scoring leader with 38 goals, while Gabriel Vilardi is 1 marker back from his first 30 goal campaign.
Three games left for Scheifele to get that last point to break the 100 point plateau for the first time in his career….as well as becoming the first Jets player to do that since the franchise returned to the province of Manitoba in 2011.
Vegas (37-26-17) is tied for the 14th best record in the league with 91 points, scoring 255 Goals For (15th) and allowing 247 Goals Against (tied for 16th). Jack Eichel is the Flyers’ leading goal scorer with 58 and is leading in points with 84, while Pavel Dorofeyev has the most assists with 36.
It should be an interesting summer for the Knights as they currently have only $4,625,000 left to spend with only 9 forwards, 4 defensemen, and 2 goalies signed for 2026-27. And that is not counting 25 yr old RFA Dorofeyev, who has now scored over 30 goals in back-to-back campaigns as well as setting a new career high in points (63). If Alex Pietrangelo is unable to continue his NHL career, that would give the GM and extra $8.8M to use…but he would also have to fill another defenseman spot. So I imagine we will be reading a lot of offer sheet rumours surrounding the talented Russian this off-season until those issues are dealt with.
Here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare when you look at the head-to-head data, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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Vegas has the advantages in goal scoring and special teams play, but both clubs haven’t been very good defensively to allow an average of 3 goals against per game. The numbers in the Goaltender Comparison probably give a clue to why that is though, as none of the masked men are having great years.
The Golden Knights are still playing for something, as their 1 pt lead on the Edmonton Oilers & Anaheim Ducks isn’t near enough to lock up the top spot in the Pacific Division. With a race that tight, Vegas can go from hosting a wildcard team in the first round to starting a series on the road in the 2nd vs 3rd battle.
So that should make it tough on whatever line up the Winnipeg Jets ice tonight in the Sin City. With the recent news that Brayden Yager & Nikita Chibrikov have been called up to the NHL team, we are waiting the pre-game skate (12:30 pm start) to give us a clue whether it will be a youth-filled roster.
Here are the current line up projections for both clubs via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS LINE UP
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I am not sure which goalie will start for Winnipeg since they both played in the Philadelphia Flyers blow out and the fact that the Jets play in Utah tomorrow. They will both get starts in the next two days…..so I will go with Connor Hellebuyck tonight since he somehow was the best tender in the recent loss with a .750 save %.
Also uncertain whether both Brayden Yager & Nikita Chibrikov will break into the line up or if the now healthy Gustav Nyquist & Colin Miller will be options. Seems to me that there are really only 4 forwards the coaches might consider pulling out of the line up and one of those is Cole Koepke, who I think should keep his spot. The other 3 will put the veteran-loving staff to the test, as I would be fine with any of Jonathan Toews, Vladislav Namestnikov, and/or Nino Niederreiter to come out for the two rookies.
Would love to see a Ville Heinola-Colin Miller 3rd pairing……but that may be too much of a dream. Will try to update the line ups in an hour or so once the media lets me know what happened at the pre-game skate.
Finally, word has dropped that Jets’ prospect Kieron Walton has joined the Manitoba Moose for the remainder of the season. The excitement is somewhat reduced by the knowledge that he is dealing with an injury…so we will just have to wait and see if he gets into some AHL action.
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE:
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all):
Expected Goals (5on5):