Is Gavin McKenna vs. Ivar Stenberg a real debate for the 1st overall pick?

As the Toronto Maple Leafs go through their scouting meetings this week, there are two consensus candidates atop the board. Penn State forward Gavin McKenna is an electrifying offensive talent that has been likened to Nikita Kucherov and Patrick Kane. Frolunda forward Ivar Stenberg is an all-around threat with a cannon of a shot. It’s an interesting debate, but given that McKenna has been the consensus best player in the class since it has been scouted, is it really a debate at all?

McKenna is unanimously considered to be the choice by draft analysts, including our own draft guru Steven Ellis. We’ve argued that Maple Leafs’ management should not overthink the pick, and select McKenna, who has been on the national radar for five years. McKenna is a ready-made left wing for Auston Matthews, and allows the Maple Leafs to build an under-25 core around him and Matthew Knies. He will immediately graduate to the NHL, and while expectations should be tempered for both players, McKenna will be able to impact winning quicker than Stenberg, whose best qualities can elude the scoresheet at times.

David Pagnotta reported on Leafs Morning Take that McKenna’s camp is excited about the prospect of joining the Maple Leafs. It can be a daunting market, but McKenna isn’t a shy kid, and his on-ice swagger will certainly inject some much-needed life into a Maple Leafs team that lacked creativity in their entries all season.

“McKenna’s camp was excited about this… and Auston’s side is pretty excited about that prospect as well.” 👀

David Pagnotta on the reaction to Toronto winning the draft lottery and the possibility of Gavin McKenna joining Auston Matthews in Toronto. 🍁

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Stenberg boasts stellar credentials, dominating the World Juniors, leading Sweden to the gold medal with four goals and 10 points, including a goal and two assists in the final. He posted 11 goals and 33 points in 43 game for Frolunda and he’s widely considered to be a defensively responsible winger. You could make a case that Stenberg’s big-game credentials and production against professionals makes him one of the safest picks in recent memory. McKenna isn’t a mercurial talent though, he’s one of the best point-producers in major junior history, before recording 51 points in 35 games for Penn State. It may be an easy choice for the Leafs’ brass.

It’ll be an interesting debate as the Maple Leafs conduct their due diligence, but the prevailing logic suggests that this may be a no-brainer. Maple Leafs general manager John Chayka provided a detailed scouting report of McKenna, when speaking with reporters following Tuesday’s lottery victory.

“He’s an exciting player that I’ve been tracking for a number of years now,” Chayka said of McKenna. “The skill level, the creativity, the puck ability, his shot and release is all pretty special. Good package. It will be good to get with the scouts and talk through it all, but I know there’s a lot of passion for a lot of players, including Gavin.”

Mats Sundin was decidedly more diplomatic when asked about Stenberg.

“You know, first round is really strong and Ivar has had a strong season, obviously, from the World Junior Championships. And so it’s going to be really great and follow them probably in the World Championship this year, in a couple of weeks or a week. But yeah, strong draft. So it’s going to be interesting and a lot of looking at these different players now and knowing it’s a first overall pick. So a lot of work ahead for us.”

There will be a lot of work ahead for the Maple Leafs, to be sure. Toronto will need to revamp its roster this season, and it could still elect to replace head coach Craig Berube this summer. There’s a lot that Chayka and Sundin have to consider, but it appears for all intents and purposes that the McKenna-Stenberg debate is over.

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