Jaxson Dart’s journey to the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft was a slightly uphill trek.
The main reason? He played quarterback at Ole Miss. And, more specifically, he played for Lane Kiffin.
NFL scouts had become leery of quarterback success in Kiffin’s offense because of how good the head coach was (and still is) at making life as easy as possible on his passer. Matt Corral, for example, threw for nearly 7,000 yards — at a sizzling 69.4 percent completion rate — at Ole Miss from 2020-21, then was selected by the Carolina Panthers in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Within two years, he was out of the league and fighting for a spot in the UFL.
So, when Dart looked great as a sophomore starter, and even better as a junior, scouts were rightly cautious with their evaluations.
Close observers noticed real differences early on with Dart, though, and not just in his physical ability as a runner at 6 feet 2 and 225 pounds. By the end of Dart’s senior year, nearly everything about his profile said first-round pick — with that one Kiffin-colored “but.”
The New York Giants didn’t care. They moved up to take Dart at No. 25, and the QB’s rookie season served as a shot in the arm for a lagging franchise. Now, with John Harbaugh in as head coach, Giants fans have reason for excitement.
Let’s unpack the good, bad and in-between of Dart’s rookie year, and take a glance at what’s next.
Rookie breakdown
Dart began to show he was more than a system quarterback during his second year as a starter at Ole Miss. Nearly one-quarter of his completions that season (22 percent) went for 20 yards or more. If you watched the tape, you saw a true pocket passer with a real arm and accuracy that held on downfield throws. Dart was comfortable and aggressive over the middle as a young QB.
Kiffin’s offense doesn’t rely on full-field reads in the pass game, but when asked, Dart was capable. He also had answers against pressure.
Dart started only 12 games last season for the Giants, but his numbers stack up well against those of his fellow rookie starters since 2020. Within that group (minimum 200 attempts), Dart per TruMedia ranks No. 6 in EPA per attempt (.04), No. 8 in EPA/dropback (.08), No. 2 in off-target rate (8.6 percent), No. 3 in EPA/pressure and No. 6 in time to throw.
That’s not all, though. What really makes Dart unique is his legit rushing ability. Dart’s not a long-speed burner, but he has terrific short-area quickness and great athletic balance for his size.
Quite simply, he runs the ball like a running back, with great vision in tight spaces and a desire to finish every carry. Dart rushed for 487 yards (5.7 yards per carry) and nine touchdowns last season, and he posted 24 total touchdowns (15 passing) in just a dozen starts. Former Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka did a great job of scheming an offense to accentuate Dart’s strengths last year. That process should only get better now with Harbaugh in New York.
Where he struggled
Starting with the obvious: Dart’s impact as a runner is sustainable, but his style is not.
The Giants were not bashful about designing runs for Dart early and often last season. There’s nothing wrong with that. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts all make that sort of thing work. But those quarterbacks are so much smarter in how they manage the damage on their bodies.
Again, Dart runs like a running back: he’s always falling forward, he doesn’t slide, he doesn’t run out of bounds, he cuts back into traffic. In part because of that approach, he was evaluated for a concussion five times in 12 games last year.
Dart has to be more mindful of avoiding big hits when possible, and the Giants will have to be careful about the number of designed QB runs they call. If Dart has the option to keep the ball and cut it between the tackles, he’s going to do it, which new offensive coordinator Matt Nagy needs to keep in mind.
As a passer, Dart knows how to process. However, he was guilty of holding the ball a tick too long in college and again as a rookie. That also ties into the punishment Dart took, with many of the hits he absorbed last season not necessary.
One of Dart’s biggest problem areas at Ole Miss was his anticipatory throwing — if he couldn’t see his target’s numbers, hesitation followed. He’s still working to improve that area of his game.
Jaxson Dart throws a corner route
Nick Baumgardner
The pictures above illustrate a third-and-long against the Chargers, on which New York is running a deep comeback with a backside post. Los Angeles drops into three-deep, match-coverage — meaning two of Dart’s options are going to break wide open.
The comeback seems to be Dart’s first read. As you can see, he has ample space to throw the ball if he rips it just before the receiver leaves his break. Even if he chooses to ignore the comeback, the fact that the defense is reacting so hard to that front-side corner route should automatically tell him his post is going to be a touchdown. Dart ignores all of it and takes off scrambling before diving into another nasty hit.
Here’s another example, this time on a completion:
Jaxson Dart throws a comeback route
Nick Baumgardner
Dart has to be quicker to see that outside cornerback diving hard on the inside route. If he fires this ball before his receiver clears the pick, that receiver is going to run for a while. Instead, he’s a tad late and the route is pushed all the way to the sideline, limiting its overall damage.
Dart was a consistent playmaker as a rookie, but not a consistent passer. He still played with too much college-level footwork, which led to early or late timing throws and, ultimately, into him taking unnecessary hits.
Where he thrived
Dart is a fearless quarterback with a big frame, short-area burst and the type of functional athleticism that could turn him into an absolute terror over time. But for my money, Dart’s greatest and most repeatable asset is his natural accuracy.
Dart was an all-state infielder in high school, and that baseball background shows on the football field. He throws the ball with a calm, grounded base and a quick, smooth motion every time. He changes speeds, mixes angles and delivers a very catchable ball at every level of the field. He’s also confident and talented enough to drive the football into tight windows, either between or outside the numbers.
Since 2020, the only rookie starter with a better off-target rate than Dart is Joe Burrow. Dart’s accuracy was actually good enough to overcome some of the hiccups he showed on tape. There were times last year when Dart was late with his delivery on downfield in-breakers but still wound up with completions because of the accuracy of his throw.
It’s no way to live week to week, but it does show Dart’s arm talent.
Eight NFL starting quarterbacks rushed at least 75 times last season. Their off-target rates:
1. Dart, 8.6
2. Josh Allen, 9.1
3. Drake Maye, 9.8
3. Justin Herbert, 9.8
5. Jalen Hurts, 9.9
6. Trevor Lawrence, 10.4
7. Bo Nix, 11.8
8. Caleb Williams, 14.6
The most encouraging thing about Dart’s rookie season is how productive he was despite the general rookie sloppiness he showed in the pocket. Dart’s starting point, development-wise, is so much further along than many feared it might be coming out of college. He showed on his Ole Miss tape an ability to process full-field reads, but he just wasn’t asked to do it very much.
The opposite happened with Minnesota Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy, who had a similar college experience. Perhaps because he at least played in a pro-style offense, many scouts believed he’d be further along when it came time to start. But he’s struggled to get up to speed, while Dart probably should’ve been awarded the starting job out of camp last season.
Talent has a lot to do with that, of course. But let’s not underestimate Dart’s ability to fit into a locker room and earn on-field respect from teammates. It was a huge plus on his college scouting report, too.
Dart needs to be less aggressive as a runner, but part of that is who he is — and it’s why his teammates wind up fighting for him.
There are areas of Dart’s game that remind me of the playing version of Jim Harbaugh. Dart is a better athlete (although probably as athletic as Harbaugh saw himself), and, like Harbaugh, will basically cut his left arm off before he throws the ball away. He’s accurate and makes good decisions, but his ability and willingness to make a play when there’s not one to be made is another area in which Dart shines.
Bottom line
There’s an awful lot of hype around Dart right now. Although at least part of that comes from a starved Giants fan base, a big part of me wants to buy in on all of it.
Dart is a unique player who presents unique challenges — not just for opposing defenses, but for his own team. Dart’s playing style and skill set can make him a danger to himself if he’s not reeled in.
The best news, though, is that John Harbaugh is now Dart’s head coach. Kafka did a great job creating an offense around Dart last year, but Harbaugh’s staff will be better equipped to help him as a dual-threat player.
Health permitting, I expect a sizable jump from Dart, who has the ability to finally give the Giants the franchise QB for which they’ve been searching.