Madrid Open Draw 2026 – Perfect Tennis

The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open draw is out, and it’s been significantly reshaped by a wave of high-profile withdrawals.

Carlos Alcaraz (home favourite and two-time champion), Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, Jack Draper, Sebastian Korda and Frances Tiafoe have pulled out, opening up the bracket and giving lucky losers and replacements a shot at the Caja Mágica’s high-altitude clay.

With Jannik Sinner as the clear top seed and Alexander Zverev as the second favourite in a draw missing some of its biggest stars, the path to the title looks more accessible for some, but who can take out Sinner after his Indian Wells, Miami and Monte Carlo Masters 1000 wins?

Tournament Info

Madrid Open 2026 Seeds

Seeds

1. Jannik Sinner
2. Alexander Zverev
3. Félix Auger-Aliassime
4. Ben Shelton
5. Alex de Minaur
6. Lorenzo Musetti
7. Daniil Medvedev
8. Alexander Bublik
9. Andrey Rublev
10. Flavio Cobolli
11. Jiří Lehečka
12. Casper Ruud
13. Karen Khachanov
14. Valentin Vacherot
15. Tommy Paul
16. Francisco Cerúndolo
17. Learner Tien
18. Luciano Darderi
19. Cameron Norrie
20. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
21. Arthur Fils
22. Arthur Rinderknech
23. Jakub Menšík
24. Tomás Martín Etcheverry
25. Corentin Moutet
26. João Fonseca
27. Brandon Nakashima
28. Tallon Griekspoor
29. Ugo Humbert
30. Denis Shapovalov
31. Gabriel Diallo
32. Alex Michelsen

Wildcards

Protect Ranking

Withdrawals

Qualifiers

Lucky Losers

2026 Madrid Open Draw

Top Half

Bottom Half

PDF Draw

Thoughts on the Draw

First Quarter

Seeded players: Jannik Sinner (1), Tommy Paul (15), Cameron Norrie (19), Gabriel Diallo (32), Andrey Rublev (9), Arthur Rinderknech (22), João Fonseca (27), Alex de Minaur (5)

This is a strong but manageable quarter for Sinner, as I just don’t see who can challenge him.

The Italian opens with a qualifier. Diallo is the standout early threat, and his game translates well to altitude as he showed last year, but Sinner should be fine through the first week.

The Round of 16 is where it can potentially sharpen. Paul, Norrie, and Machac are all capable of making things awkward, Machac especially given recent history, but none bring an overwhelming clay pedigree.

The real intrigue is the bottom half of the quarter. De Minaur is the projected opponent, but he’s landed in a minefield.

Jodar could test him immediately, and Fonseca looms as one of the most dangerous floaters in the entire draw. Rublev is also here, but unpredictable, as he often plays well one week (like just now in Barcelona) and then poorly the next, so he could dominate or disappear.

Overall, this quarter feels pretty straightforward for Sinner if his shoulder niggle isn’t too much of a problem. Plenty of dangerous names, but no obvious player performing at a level close to him right now.

Second Quarter

Seeded players: Ben Shelton (4), Tomas Etcheverry (25), Arthur Fils (21), Valentin Vacherot (14), Jiri Lehecka (11), Alex Michelsen (33), Tallon Griekspoor (29), Lorenzo Musetti (6)

This is arguably the most competitive quarter in the entire draw.

Shelton arrives full of confidence after Munich, but he’s been handed a brutal opener in Berrettini. That’s immediately a coin flip. If he survives, the path doesn’t ease; Etcheverry, Fils, and Vacherot are all capable of deep runs.

Fils is the standout danger. Fresh off a title and with a huge forehand, he looks like a candidate if he can maintain consistency.

On the other hand, Musetti is the proven Madrid performer (semi-finalist last year), but his path is tricky, and he’s undercooked in match play.

The Italian has Hurkacz early, then potentially Lehecka, a player who has already shown he can go deep at big events. Tabilo and Struff add further danger.

Third Quarter

Seeded players: Alexander Bublik (8), Corentin Moutet (26), Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (20), Casper Ruud (12), Francisco Cerundolo (16), Luciano Darderi (18), Brandon Nakashima (28), Felix Auger-Aliassime (3)

Bublik vs Tsitsipas in round two could be a fun match; Bublik should fancy his chances in the conditions.

Ruud is the defending champion and the best pure clay player here, but fitness concerns hang over him. If he’s not 100%, this section opens up dramatically.

The Spanish contingent (Davidovich Fokina, Carreño Busta, Munar) adds further unpredictability, especially with the crowd behind them.

Then there’s the Cerundolo–Darderi zone. Both are strong clay-courters and could capitalise on Auger-Aliassime’s inconsistency. FAA has a pedigree here, but not the form.

Bottom Quarter

Seeded players: Daniil Medvedev (7), Denis Shapovalov (31), Learner Tien (17), Flavio Cobolli (10), Karen Khachanov (13), Jakub Mensik (23), Ugo Humbert (30), Alexander Zverev (2)

This is where the draw opens up structurally, with no Alcaraz, and Zverev looks like the biggest beneficiary.

Medvedev’s section is dangerous. Early Shapovalov or Opelka in Madrid conditions is not comfortable, and the fourth round is loaded (Cobolli, Dimitrov, Monfils, Tien). This is not a smooth path, as he seems to have forgotten how to play since Indian Wells.

Zverev, on the other hand, has a very workable route. Borges/Navone is tricky but manageable, and even the projected challenges, Kecmanovic, Mensik, are ones he should handle if he’s playing well.

Is it a potential Zverev vs Medvedev quarter-final? Historically, Medvedev dominates the matchup, but form, surface, and conditions should favour Zverev.

Interesting First Round Matches

Who is your pick for the 2026 Madrid Open? Let me know in the comments.