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Monte-Carlo final preview, pick, and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Sinner

Monte-Carlo final preview, pick, and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Sinner

For the first time in 2026 Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner is on.

The two best players and the two biggest rivals on tour will square off in the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters on Sunday afternoon. It will mark their 18th meeting overall, with Alcaraz leading the head-to-head series 11-6 (10-6 on the main tour). The Spaniard is 7-2 in their last nine encounters, but Sinner most recently triumphed in the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals championship match.

Most importantly, Alcaraz has won four of their five clay-court contests — including three in a row. Sinner has not prevailed on the red stuff since their 2022 Umag final. Their most memorable showdown was their last one on clay, when Alcaraz triumphed from three match points down to win a five-set thriller at the French Open last spring.

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik SinnerCarlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner

Both players are in spectacular form this season. Alcaraz (21-2 in 2026) has bounced back from a disappointing Sunshine Double with Monte-Carlo wins over Sebastian Baez, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Alexander Bublik, and Valentin Vacherot. Sinner won both Sunshine Double titles — Indian Wells and Miami — and has not slowed down in the principality. The Italian is through to the final following defeats of Tomas Machac, Ugo Humbert, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Alexander Zverev.

The surface and perhaps the motivation factor, as well, should favor Alcaraz. Sinner has won three straight Masters 1000 titles dating back to Paris last fall; Alcaraz will be craving another 1000-point trophy following his struggles in Indian Wells and Miami. With tons of clay-court points to defend, this is also one of the 22-year-old’s last chances to maintain the No. 1 ranking for at least one more week before Sinner inevitably takes over the top spot later in April.

An instant classic is hopefully in the cards, but the edge may go to Alcaraz.

Pick: Alcaraz in 3

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