The 2026 NFL schedule release was the final piece of the puzzle towards projecting the upcoming season. While we already knew all 17 opponents for each franchise, we can now project how the season could evolve based on tough stretches, bye weeks, and the timing of certain matchups.
With the NFL schedule in place, let’s take a look at how PFSN’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM) projects the 2026 season. After that, we’ll fire up PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor and see what happens in a single simulation of the 2026 season.
NFL FPM Projections for the 2026 Season
Taken from PFSN’s Football Playoff Meter, the FPM simulates the season 100,000 times and provides average win-loss records. It also gives us the number of simulations in which a team wins the division and makes the playoffs.
We also get data on how often that team earns which seed and the number of simulations in which they are selecting at different points in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Projected AFC Standings
It’s a familiar story at the top of the 2026 AFC projections, albeit with the Denver Broncos usurping the Kansas City Chiefs as the powerhouse of the AFC West. The New England Patriots’ tough schedule sees them tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars in sixth.
If you include the Dexter Lawrence trade, the Cincinnati Bengals have spent five of their last six Day 1 and 2 picks on defense, and the team was also recently active in free agency. That, coupled with their relatively friendly 2026 schedule, has left them with the highest projected win total of all AFC teams not projected to win their division.
With just 0.3 wins separating the Jaguars and the Houston Texans, and just two wins between all four teams, the AFC South is expected to be the tightest division.
Projected NFC Standings
There is much more positivity surrounding the top teams in the NFC, with seven projected to win at least 9.5 games, compared to just three in the AFC. Three-quarters of the NFC West are projected to win at least 10 games, which is astonishing in itself, and explains why the Arizona Cardinals sit at the bottom of the list.
The similarly stacked NFC North also promises to be an intriguing battle for dominance, as just 0.2 wins separate the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers are predicted to finish last in a tight NFC South race, despite winning the division last season and adding some top talent this offseason.
Six of the bottom seven teams could realistically finish the year with first-, second-, or third-year quarterbacks under center. Factor in Caleb Williams and Ty Simpson at the other end of the table, and the NFC landscape could look very different in the not-too-distant future.
NFL Win-Loss Predictions: Every Game, Final Standings, Draft Order
Now, let’s take a look at some potential divisional standings, win-loss records, and the resulting playoff picture. We ran a 2026 season simulation using PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, which uses PFSN’s strength of schedule rankings and power rankings to predict each of the 272 games individually. Here are the results.
AFC North
The Baltimore Ravens rally to reclaim the AFC North title, but the standout result is the Pittsburgh Steelers finishing at the bottom of the table with only five wins. While the Steelers were perennial contenders under Mike Tomlin, and Mike McCarthy has a glowing record when his quarterback stays healthy, this is a non-zero possibility.
Aaron Rodgers has yet to commit to the team for 2026, and even if he does, the Steelers’ schedule is not pretty. The FPM projects Pittsburgh for just over eight wins, and only five would be a huge surprise, but it’s within the range of outcomes.
AFC East
The Buffalo Bills get back on top of their division, with the Patriots winning six fewer games in this simulation than they did in 2025.
The New York Jets show signs of progression with seven wins and have an enviable stack of 2027 draft picks to improve their young roster further.
AFC South
In a tight AFC South battle, the Tennessee Titans narrowly miss out on a playoff spot with eight wins, while the Indianapolis Colts fall short for the sixth straight year.
Liam Coen continues to build a genuine contender in Jacksonville, and four consecutive wins to close out the year secured a second consecutive division title.
AFC West
Further offseason improvements couldn’t help the Las Vegas Raiders improve on their 3-14 record from 2025.
Despite the simulation handing them surprise wins over the Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams, their record sees them land the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, meaning they’ll bring in a No. 1 prospect for the second year in a row.
NFC North
The Chicago Bears are possibly the most intriguing team heading into 2026, with several reasons to expect both regression and continued improvement. In this simulation, they pick up a second consecutive division title, earning the No. 1 seed in the division in the process.
All four teams finish with winning records, as the NFC North maintains its status as one of the toughest divisions in the NFL.
NFC East
After the Philadelphia Eagles strolled to a division title in 2025, the rest of the NFC East put up a far better fight in this simulation.
In particular, the Dallas Cowboys bounce back from a dismal losing season to steal the crown away from their bitter rivals.
NFC South
After three teams finished with eight wins in 2025, the NFC South standings are a little more straightforward this time around. The Atlanta Falcons ultimately take the division with nine wins.
The New Orleans Saints struggle in Tyler Shough’s first full season as a starter, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take another worrying step backward.
NFC West
It’s hard not to feel sorry for the Cardinals, with three of the top teams in the NFL all playing for their division.
In this scenario, it’s highly likely that the team gets a good look at Carson Beck, but that they’re also in the market for his immediate replacement in the 2027 NFL Draft.
NFL Playoff Bracket
If the eight divisions play out exactly as we see above in our projected standings, here’s what the 14-team playoff bracket would look like.
A stacked NFC playoff bracket includes six teams with 11 or more wins, while the likes of Bijan Robinson and Drake London finally appear in the NFL postseason. After backing up their impressive 2025 campaign with an even better 2026, the Bears enter the playoffs as a genuine Super Bowl contender.
Meanwhile, for only the third time since the 2013 season, the AFC champions will be a team other than the Kansas City Chiefs or the Patriots, as both missed the playoffs. The Bengals are back in, though, four years since facing the Chiefs in back-to-back conference championship games.
2027 NFL Draft Order
Finally, based on the simulation results, here’s how the 2027 NFL Draft order would look, with the final 14 spots determined by playoff results.
The Raiders would field plenty of calls for the first overall pick, with the team unlikely to be in the market for one of the draft’s top quarterback prospects. If a trade doesn’t materialize, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith could be the first player to hear his name called in Washington, D.C.
If the Green Bay Packers were to be eliminated in the Wild Card round, the Jets could potentially end up with three top-20 picks in the 2027 draft. With the teams owning picks 2-6 all likely looking for a quarterback in this scenario, it’s highly likely the Jets would need to use that draft capital to pull off a trade.