As we begin the countdown to Friday night and the Rangers’ first lottery pick since 2020, there is no doubt that a majority of mock drafts this week will have the Rangers taking one of the many defense draft options. While I am extremely bullish on Viggo Bjorck at 5 and believe he will be strongly considered, it is hard to argue with the logic of taking a defenseman, as the Rangers defense draft options are pretty solid. They are riskier than forwards in the top ten though, so buyer beware.
If you haven’t tuned into our draft coverage check out the pieces below on my contenders for pick 5:
Alberts Smits – LHD – Jukurit (Liiga) & Red Bull Munchen (DEL)
Below is how Smits ranks in a few of the most respected draft rankings. You can find each ranking linked, although you may need a subscription to access the full ranking:
It’s strange to think that a Latvian who plays in Europe may actually be the prospect most Rangers fans have seen play live, but I believe that might be the case with Smits, who had the honor of playing in the Winter Olympics earlier this year. His personality also shined in interviews, projecting a hyper-serious persona who wants to be his own player and doesn’t compare himself to current pros. While Carson Carels is the most widely linked player to the Blueshirts, Smits has also been linked and fits the profile as one of the more NHL ready Rangers defense draft options.
Smits looks the part of a top NHL defenseman, standing at 6’3″ with very, very impressive mobility (and not just for a big guy). EliteProspects has him ranked in the top 5 in the class for both four-way mobility and straight-line speed. He spent the season in Liiga and produced admirably before being loaned to the DEL to end the season, where he put in another impressive performance in the playoffs. When he played minutes in Finland’s junior league, he produced some highlight reel-worthy moments, skating circles around opposition who could simply not match him physically.
Smits does not project to have the same offensive touch and sense as someone like Reid, but he has a cannon of a shot and does project to score at the NHL level. He is also relentlessly competitive and has a nastiness to his game that teams will like. There is some chatter that he could push for an NHL spot as soon as next season, which I am sure would appeal to Drury, even if I don’t think that is the right move developmentally.
Overall, I am a really big believer in Smits and his skill set. From my viewings, I don’t see any real weakness in his game, and I think the skating/compete/shooting combination will make him a very threatening player sooner rather than later. I would like to see him play another year in Europe, though, as he does fit the profile as one of the top Rangers defense draft options.
Keaton Verhoeff – RHD – North Dakota (NCAA)
Verhoeff is another prospect who came into the season as a dark horse challenger to be drafted 1st overall, and for a while, he was making a compelling case. He got off to a blazing start in the NCAA, posting 17 points in 20 games to open the season, which would have been unprecedented production for a defenseman his age. However, his production cratered in the second half of the season, with just 3 points in the remaining 16 games, and concerns around his decision-making and skating started to emerge. Still, a 17-year-old defenseman producing in one of college hockey’s toughest conferences for an elite team is simply not something you can scoff at.
Verhoeff likes to get involved on the puck, and despite some concerns over his handling and a lack of high-end playmaking/vision, he has clear offensive upside at the NHL level. He has a huge, dangerous point shot that will be an asset at both 5v5 and on the man advantage. Standing at 6’4″, Verhoeff brings the size that NHL teams covet right now, and he combines it with a high compete level.
Two issues in Verhoeff’s game will scare off some teams and fans. The first is that his decision-making on the puck looked questionable at best in the second half of the season, and he was flat-out awful on the big stage at the Frozen Four. You want to grant him some grace because of his age, but you simply cannot struggle as much on the puck as he did when the games get faster.
The other point of contention with Verhoeff surrounds his skating. Some analysts, like Corey Pronman, view him as a good skater for his size, although they will admit his stride is a bit clunky. Others view his skating as a potential problem area, which is a big red flag for me, given that the other serious contenders are all at least above-average skaters.
Despite all the negativity surrounding the end of his season, the raw production data support that he is a top prospect in this draft and would be a reasonable selection at pick 5. Despite changing leagues and struggling in the second half of the season, he did see year-to-year NHLe growth, and I expect him to pace close to a point per game in an expanded role next season at North Dakota. His microstat data brings to light some of the underlying concerns in his game, especially when it comes to his ability to manage the puck in his own end.
It’s likely Verhoeff was one of the top Rangers defense draft options at some point, given his blend of size and skill at a position of need. The big question is his skating, especially in a Rangers farm system that lacks high end skating talent.
Outside Contenders
Carels, Reid, Smits, and Verhoeff are the top Rangers defense draft options at 5th overall. But there are two other defensemen whose stocks rose throughout the Spring: Daxon Rudolph out of the WHL, and Malte Gustafsson from Sweden. Both are unlikely to be seriously as top Rangers defense draft options, but could be dark horses if the Rangers trade back.
Daxon Rudolph – RHD – Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)
The skinny on Rudolph is that he is one of the smartest players in the class and arguably the smartest among the top defenders. If Reid has the clearest path to being a PP1 quarterback, Rudolph is not far behind, and he also brings size to the table at nearly 6’3″. Defensively there are some question marks about how proactive his play is, but his ability to defend with his stick is widely praised. There is no questioning the offensive ability he would bring to the Rangers organization. Like Verhoeff, he is also one of the more refined shooters in a defensive class that boasts several threats from distance.
My primary concern with drafting Rudolph would be a cap on his upside with the Rangers due to Adam Fox. I know Fox isn’t going to be around forever, but he is only 28 and plays a style of play that will age well. I expect him to run PP1 well into his 30s for the Rangers.
Malte Gustafsson – LHD – HV71 (SHL)
If there is a left-field pick for the Rangers at 5, my guess is that it would be Gustafsson (or forward Wyatt Cullen). Gustafsson was one of the best defensemen at the U18 worlds and impressed this season in the SHL. While his numbers may not jump off the page, the book on him is that he is a massive defenseman with serious plus-level skating and physicality.
Gustafsson has been able to leverage that skill set to match up against top forwards and win those matchups. Elite Prospects has him rated as the second-best shutdown defenseman in the draft and the best neutral-zone defender. This would not be a big bet on offensive upside, but he does have the potential to be a serious minute-eater in the NHL. In theory this would help take some of the burden off Fox, who faced the toughest match-up minutes of his career this past season.
Overall, I know there has been some indication that the Rangers will prioritize whoever they think is closest to NHL-ready, since Drury is a (REDACTED) trying to save his job. All of these Rangers defense draft options need at least one season of development before stepping into the NHL.