I spent the weekend revisiting decades of data to answer one question: How often was drafting a quarterback first overall the correct decision?
Inside: The Raiders have an easy decision in Fernando Mendoza. Will they end up wishing they’d taken Texas Tech’s David Bailey or Ohio State’s Arvell Reese? History suggests not. Plus: Five remarkable prospects.
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NFL Draft history: QB usually the right call
It seems unlikely the Raiders will regret passing on several likely difference makers for the presumptive No. 1 pick and draft-day absentee Mendoza. Why? For one thing, quarterback is the most important position in sports.
Beyond that, picking a given class’ first quarterback is about as close to a safe bet as it gets at the position. Last year, I found that among quarterbacks drafted from 2000 to 2022, the earliest quarterback draftees had better pro careers than any of their QB classmates 39.1 percent of the time. The numbers fell drastically after that.
But this year I wanted to answer a different question, one that accounts for all the other positions on offense and defense.
How often were the top-drafted quarterbacks the most valuable players from their draft classes? If we revisit the highest-drafted quarterbacks from 2000 to 2020, we see a relatively impressive degree of success.
Granted, some picks would’ve changed in hindsight. The Rams would’ve been better off with Ndamukong Suh than with Sam Bradford in 2010, for instance. Others would’ve simply swapped quarterbacks, like the Browns landing Josh Allen instead of Baker Mayfield in 2018.
Here’s how each year’s re-draft might look, within reason (meaning a time traveler couldn’t have talked the 2012 Colts into drafting the 5-foot-11 Russell Wilson at No. 1, and the 2016 Rams ended up glad they chose Jared Goff, since the decision was mostly between him and No. 2 pick Carson Wentz, not Dak Prescott, the eighth QB drafted that year).
These results are actually pretty encouraging for the Raiders. Because during those two decades, the highest-drafted quarterback would’ve been the best choice as the overall No. 1 pick 50 percent of the time. Given how difficult it is to draft and develop a quarterback — just ask Jets fans — I’ll take that bet any time.
Of course, not every No. 1 quarterback is the same, especially without the benefit of hindsight. How these guys were viewed at the time:
No-doubters: Michael Vick and Andrew Luck. The quarterback prospects you’d bet your franchise on.
Near-locks: Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Joe Burrow. Players who had one or two questions but were strong bets.
Flip-flops: Roll the dice on Alex Smith, Jameis Winston, Stafford, Bradford, Goff, Mayfield.
Hopefully? David Carr, JaMarcus Russell, Kyler Murray.
Though Mendoza isn’t as physically gifted as some of the prior No. 1s, the 6-foot-5 Heisman winner fits closer to that near-lock tier than he does to any other group. His processing, accuracy and confidence give him a Burrow-like position atop this class, and his future is buoyed by what actually might be a strong support system in Las Vegas.
As for other unique prospects …
Five one-of-a-kind prospects
It’s tempting to label an upcoming rookie as the next version of a generational player.
I saw the “next Micah Parsons” label slapped on last year’s edge rushers Abdul Carter, Jihaad Campbell and Jalon Walker. This year, it’s Reese who inherits that comp. (Forgive us, but Reese is remarkably similar.) But we might never find another Parsons, even if another prospect runs a 4.39-second 40-yard dash and plays multiple linebacker roles.
This draft has a few potential firsts at several positions:
QB: The first Diego Pavia.
He isn’t your typical NFL quarterback. He lacks arm strength. He’s built like an amateur wrestler at 5-foot-10, 207 pounds — and acts like a pro wrestler. Dane Brugler gave him a seventh-round grade and QB16 ranking in The Beast.
But don’t count out Pavia. He consistently overachieved at New Mexico State and Vanderbilt, setting school records while Vandy improved from 2-10 before his arrival to 10-3 in 2025, when he finished as the Heisman runner-up. He had some moments at the Senior Bowl:
Edge: The first Rueben Bain Jr.
A smaller edge rusher with the third-shortest arms at his position in NFL combine history. He’s not particularly fast, either.
The thing is, Miami’s Bain can play football. He’s strong enough to beat blocks and pressure quarterbacks, evidenced by his 156 pressures and 20.5 sacks in his past 25 college games, which includes Playoff opponents. He’s No. 9 in Dane’s t0p-100 rankings.
- Recent news: It was revealed that Bain was involved in a deadly car crash two years ago.
Running back: The first Jeremiyah Love.
The balance of Alvin Kamara, the shiftiness of Bijan Robinson and the acceleration of Jahmyr Gibbs. That’s how it sounds in The Beast, where Dane ranks Notre Dame’s Love second overall:
“Stays on his feet through contact and has unique ability to catch his balance. … Electric feet to cut laterally. … With his easy acceleration, Love can excel on perimeter runs or when given a runway to create big play.”
Corner: The first Tacario Davis.
A 6-foot-4 cornerback (99th-percentile height score) with long arms (33 inches, 96th percentile) and impressive speed (4.41 40, 90th percentile), he offers intriguing upside.
Yet Davis is Dane’s 14th-ranked cornerback due to inconsistent production at Arizona and Washington. His rare build makes him difficult to throw against and he could shine in the right scheme. I’d expect teams to be tempted. Look at how he makes up ground.
Defensive tackle: The first Caleb Banks.
He has the alluring combination of 6-6 size, power and twitch that should make him an early first-round pick. But the Florida prospect suffered two similar injuries in less than 12 months. He played just three games in 2025 before a foot injury cost him the season, then he injured that same foot the night before the NFL combine. His surgery in March will sideline him until June, which is why he falls to No. 45 in my colleague Nick Baumgardner’s projection of the top 100 picks.
Extra Points
👀 Redrafting 2025. While I looked at a series of No. 1 picks, Baumgardner did a similar re-draft exercise today for the whole 2025 first round. Cam Ward remains No. 1, but two other quarterbacks join him in the top 15. Read it here.
📓 Who is No. 2? The Jets are on the clock, and there are a few elite options after Mendoza. Four NFL executives and scouts made the case for each.
🤝 Myles Garrett trade? A late-March contract modification suggests that the Browns superstar could be … back on trade watch. “Maybe some all-in team told the Browns that a true Godfather offer was in the works,” explained our beat reporter, Zac Jackson.
💼 Progress! Jerry Jones and other NFL owners joined negotiations with the Referees Association and had a “productive meeting” last week.
▶️ Last week’s most-clicked: The Beast, free to read in our app here. I still can’t believe Dane covers 2,700 prospects.
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