It’s been the most chaotic women’s draw at Roland-Garros in years. The defending champion is out. The four-time champion is out. The No 2 seed didn’t make it past the second round. Just eight women remain in the singles draw – and a first-time French Open champion is now guaranteed. My pre-tournament draw analysis is in tatters. Read on for my breakdown of the last eight, with predictions for all four women’s quarters, plus a look ahead to the final weekend.
Women’s quarter-final predictions: 2026 French Open
Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider
Odds:
- Sabalenka – 1.14 (-714)
- Shnaider – 5.33 (+433)
Path to QF:
- Sabalenka – def. Bouzas Maneiro, Jacquemot, Kasatkina, Osaka
- Shnaider – def. Zarazua, Kessler, Oliynykova, Keys
Time on court:
- Sabalenka – 5h, 33m
- Shnaider – 6h, 27m
The top half of the women’s draw has been ripped apart, and Sabalenka is the last woman standing from the pre-tournament favorites. That’s all you need to know about her quarter-final – this should be comfortable.
Sabalenka has been clinical so far in Paris. She dealt with Osaka in straight sets last night, firing 12 aces and winning 83% of her first-serve points. There was a wobble in the first set, but the way she wrestled momentum back and closed it out 7-5, 6-3 showed the mentality of a player who knows this is her tournament to lose. She hasn’t dropped a set, and across four rounds she’s barely been tested.
Shnaider has had a solid tournament, but her path tells you the story: Zarazua, Kessler, Oliynykova, and Keys. No disrespect, but that’s not the CV of someone who’s been battle-tested. Yes, she demolished Keys 6-0 in the third set last round, but Keys was fading badly by that point – she’d burned through her weapons in the first set and had nothing left.
The Russian is a competent player with decent baseline depth and a lefty serve that can cause problems. But “competent” and “decent” aren’t words that trouble Sabalenka. The world No 1 is simply too powerful, too experienced at this level, and too locked in right now.
I’d be stunned if this goes three.
Prediction: Sabalenka beats Shnaider in straight sets
Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska
Odds:
- Kalinskaya – 1.90 (-111)
- Chwalinska – 1.86 (-116)
Path to QF:
- Kalinskaya – def. Boisson, Korneeva, Osorio, Potapova
- Chwalinska – def. Zheng, Mertens, Sakkari, Parry
Time on court:
- Kalinskaya – 7h, 37m
- Chwalinska – 11h, 40m
This is the quarter-final nobody predicted, featuring two players who absolutely nobody had making the last eight.
Kalinskaya has scraped through this draw by the skin of her teeth. She went the full distance against both Osorio and Potapova, needing a super tiebreak to get past Potapova last round. The No 22 seed has looked vulnerable in every match beyond the first round, and there’s a question mark over whether she’s got the composure to perform in a Grand Slam quarter-final.
Then there’s Chwalinska. What a story this has been. The Polish qualifier came into this tournament ranked 114th in the world, having won the WTA 125 in Oeiras on clay leading in. She opened the tournament by bageling Qinwen Zheng in the second set of their first round match, then did the same to Mertens in round two. Sakkari gave her a scare in the third round, taking the first set, but Chwalinska showed composure to come through in three. Then she dispatched home hope Parry 6-3, 6-2.
What makes Chwalinska dangerous is her confidence. She’s playing the kind of free-swinging tennis that only someone with zero expectation can produce. Her forehand is whippy and aggressive, and on clay her footwork has been sharp enough to compete with players well above her ranking. The fact that she won a WTA 125 title on clay just before this tournament tells you this form is genuine, not a fluke.
Kalinskaya has the bigger weapons – her serve is the best of any player in this half of the draw outside of Sabalenka. But she’s also been on court significantly longer, and her body language in the Potapova match was shaky at times.
This one’s a coin flip, but I’m going with the form player.
Prediction: Chwalinska beats Kalinskaya in three sets
Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk
Odds:
- Svitolina – 2.08 (+108)
- Kostyuk – 1.75 (-133)
Path to QF:
- Svitolina – def. Bondar, Quevedo, Korpatsch, Bencic
- Kostyuk – def. Selekhmeteva, Volynets, Golubic, Swiatek
Time on court:
- Svitolina – 7h, 18m
- Kostyuk – 7h, 19m
An all-Ukrainian quarter-final, and arguably the most intriguing match of the round. Both have been outstanding on clay in 2026, but they’ve arrived here by very different routes.
Svitolina comes in as the Rome champion, and you can feel the confidence radiating off her. She had a nervy opener against Bondar, needing a super tiebreak to survive, but has been imperious since. The way she dismantled Bencic in the round-of-16 was particularly impressive – after losing the first set, she reeled off 12 of the next 16 games to win 4-6, 6-4, 6-0. That’s the kind of ruthless response that signals she’s in peak form.
Svitolina’s game on clay is all about suffocation. She sits deep, retrieves everything, and waits for her opponent to make mistakes. She doesn’t beat you – she makes you beat yourself. At 31, she’s savvy enough to know how to manage a match, and her defensive skills on this surface are world-class.
Kostyuk, though, has been the form player of the clay season. (More here on Kostyuk’s racquet)
She’s 16-0 on the surface in 2026 after winning the Madrid WTA 1000 and hasn’t dropped a set on clay since late April. Her demolition of Swiatek in the round-of-16 was the result of the tournament so far – 7-5, 6-1 against a four-time champion on her best surface. Her aggressive baseline game, combined with a return game that’s been the best on tour this clay swing, make her an incredibly difficult opponent to contain.
What concerns me about Kostyuk, however, is how she handles the step up from beating Swiatek to having to close out a Grand Slam run. She skipped Rome after Madrid, so she’s fresh – but freshness without match toughness can be a double-edged sword. Svitolina has been through the wars in Paris already and knows what it takes to grind.
This is a match that comes down to who imposes their style first. If Kostyuk can get on top of the baseline exchanges early and force Svitolina to play her pace, she’ll win. If Svitolina slows the match down and drags Kostyuk into long, draining rallies, the momentum could swing her way.
I think Kostyuk’s level is simply too high right now. That return game is a weapon, and she’s got the hunger of someone who knows this is her moment.
Prediction: Kostyuk beats Svitolina in three sets
Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea
Odds:
- Andreeva – 1.55 (-182)
- Cirstea – 2.45 (+145)
Path to QF:
- Andreeva – def. Ferro, Bassols, Bouzkova, Teichmann
- Cirstea – def. Efremova, Lys, Sierra, Wang Xiyu
Time on court:
- Andreeva – 6h, 2m
- Cirstea – 5h, 4m
This is a generational clash. The 19-year-old prodigy against the 36-year-old who’s playing in her final Roland-Garros.
Andreeva has been ruthlessly efficient in Paris. After a wobble in the second round against Bassols (where she dropped the first set), she’s been in cruise control. The way she handled Bouzkova and Teichmann was clinical – 6-4, 6-2 and 6-3, 6-2 respectively. She’s barely breaking a sweat, and across four matches she’s spent just five hours on court.
The teenager’s game is built around an ability to construct points maturely. She’s got the variety of a player 10 years older – the drop shots, the sliced backhands, the ability to change the pace of a rally at will. On clay, where she has time to think, these tools become lethal. She’s also been one of the best players in the world this year, making the Indian Wells final and impressing throughout the European clay swing.
Cirstea, however, has been one of the stories of the tournament, and the year.
The Romanian has dropped just 12 games across her first three matches, including a double bagel against Sierra in the third round. Yes, the opposition hasn’t been the strongest, but you still have to execute, and Cirstea has been hitting the ball as cleanly as she has all year. Reports suggest she’s planning to retire at the end of the season, and there’s something about that freedom that seems to be unlocking her best tennis.
At 36, Cirstea moves well enough on clay and hits a heavy ball from the baseline. She’s a dangerous floater in this draw – someone with nothing to lose and a career’s worth of experience to draw on.
But Andreeva is a different beast to anyone Cirstea has faced this fortnight. The teenager will have the tactical edge, the physical edge, and the weapons to control rallies. Cirstea might make it competitive for a set, but I expect Andreeva’s quality to tell.
Prediction: Andreeva beats Cirstea in straight sets
First quarter-finals day is set ?
Full Tuesday’s order of play on https://t.co/wvNRC5UQgb.#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/VoIqMCqAHT
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 1, 2026
2026 Women’s French Open final weekend predictions
- Semi – Sabalenka beats Chwalinska
- Semi – Kostyuk beats Andreeva
- Final – Sabalenka beats Kostyuk
This is Sabalenka’s title to lose – and I don’t think she’ll lose it.
The top half of the draw is a procession for the world No 1. Whether it’s Kalinskaya or Chwalinska who comes through the other quarter-final, neither has the firepower or the big-match pedigree to trouble Sabalenka. I expect her to reach the final having dropped, at most, one set across three matches. She’ll be fresh, she’ll be confident, and she’ll know the hard work has already been done.
The bottom half is where the intrigue lies.
I’ve picked Kostyuk to beat Svitolina, and I think her form carries her past Andreeva too. This is the match of the semi-finals: Andreeva’s variety and tactical smarts against Kostyuk’s relentless aggression from the baseline. What swings it for me is Kostyuk’s return game. Andreeva relies on controlling the tempo, and Kostyuk won’t let her. The 23-year-old has been taking the ball earlier than anyone on tour this clay swing, and that pressure will force Andreeva into uncharacteristic errors.
That sets up a Sabalenka vs Kostyuk final.
Sabalenka owns a dominant head-to-head record against Kostyuk and won their most recent meeting at the Brisbane final in January. In a Grand Slam final, with Sabalenka having cruised through the draw while Kostyuk has had to fight through Swiatek, Svitolina and Andreeva back-to-back-to-back, the physical advantage swings heavily towards the Belarusian.
Kostyuk’s clay form is sensational, and she’ll make it competitive. But Sabalenka at her best on the biggest stage is a different level. I’ve got the world No 1 lifting the Coupe Suzanne-Lenglen for the first time.