This week brings another clay 1000-level event, with both tours converging on Rome for 12 days of action at the Italian Open 2026. It’s the final stop for most players ahead of the French Open, and represents the most similar conditions too, making it a crucial juncture.
I dive into all the latest betting odds and look for value heading into the Rome Masters. Are the favorites worth opposing? If so, who are the best dark horses to back? Read on for my WTA and ATP Rome value bets this week.
ATP Rome value bets and tips
- Finalists – Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev @ 5.80 (+480)
- Ben Shelton to reach quarter-finals @ 4.00 (+300)
- Zizou Bergs vs Terence Atmane – three sets @ 2.12 (+112)
The big story in the men’s event is Sinner chasing his sixth-straight Masters title, which would see him complete his set of titles at this level aged just 24. The Italian rides a 23-match win streak and is unbeaten on clay in 2026, having just taken apart world No 3 Zverev in the Madrid final.
When it comes to Sinner, I’m torn. He’s an enormous favorite – 1.40 (-250), compared to the next closest of 13.00 (+1200) – but even the greatest can’t win forever. He’s currently in uncharted waters: no-one has won this many Masters events in a row. Part of me thinks it’s time for him to lose. He’ll be looking ahead to the French Open, where he knows the title is his for the taking, plus there’s bound to be a bit of fatigue and extra pressure, chasing the career Masters sweep in front of a home crowd.
And yet, going against him seems like a fool’s game. The guy just keeps winning, and so, so easily. He’s dropped just two sets since February, both of which were scratchy early-round matches where a lull in concentration is expected. I’ve got to back him to keep winning here.
Odds on Sinner winning outright aren’t worth getting out of bed for, however I do like the value of backing a Sinner vs Zverev final, which pays a healthy 5.80 (+480).
The pair just met in the Madrid championship match as I mentioned, and a repeat of that in Rome is by far the most likely outcome next weekend. Bookies have this priced reasonably long because Zverev that Madrid final was the German’s first since last October. However, there’s no Carlos Alcaraz in Rome, plus Novak Djokovic is playing for the first time in months. This opens up the path nicely for Zverev to make the final – a feat he’s done three times previously, winning the event twice.
For all of Zverev’s flaws when he comes up against the game’s best, he is a consistent quantity. Somehow he manages to keep taking beatings from Sincaraz yet turning up the next week (he’s 26-8 this year with semi-final or deeper runs in all but one tournament), so I expect him to do so again.
With these two making the final, I see value in backing Shelton to make the quarter-finals in the top quarter. The American exited early in Madrid at the hands of a red-hot Dino Prizmic, but before that was looking sharp, winning an ATP 500 in Munich. His game, with its heavy kick serve and lefty forehand, is well set up for clay.
To make the quarters, Shelton would likely need to beat a qualifier, Brandon Nakashima then either Andrey Rublev or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. This is a very manageable path for a guy who’s becoming better and better at beating those he’s supposed to beat. A good chunk of time off between his Madrid exit and now will have helped the 23-year-old acclimatize well in Rome, so expect a fresh, motivated push from him ahead of Roland-Garros.
Finally, those hunting a little value sooner in Rome may want to look at the first-round match between Bergs and Atmane. The pair are both excellent fighters, so I anticipate this clash going the distance, with bookies pricing a three-setter at 2.12 (+112). Bergs has won a set in his last two defeats, while Atmane has gone the distance in three of his last four losses too.
I watched Bergs play live in Melbourne and was thoroughly impressed by his grit and self-talk whenever he got behind in a match. As for Atmane, the Frenchman has the kind of serve that keeps him in any contest, plus plenty of mongrel too, as evidenced by his nine deciding sets already in 2026.
Check our recommended betting sites if you want to bet on any of these matches in Rome.
WTA Rome value bets and tips
- Mirra Andreeva to win @ 15.00 (+400)
- Karolina Muchova to reach the semi-finals @ 8.00 (+700)
- Hailey Baptiste to beat Elina Svitolina @ odds TBC
The women’s draw is wide open in Rome, and for once, there’s a strong argument for opposing the favorite. Madrid was diabolic from a seed perspective, with almost all of the top 10 crashing out early.
Here, Sabalenka is once again the top seed and deserved favorite at 3.00 (+200), but I’m not convinced she wins here. Yes, she’s 26-2 on the year, but this hasn’t been a spot that historically favors her. She’s never won Rome, and has made the final just once. Last year, she went out in the quarters to Qinwen Zheng.
The Belarusian is still growing into a force on clay in my eyes, and while I reckon she’ll go deep – likely the semis or final – I have a feeling she’ll be more focused on her French Open campaign than making a serious run here in Rome. All that to say, while I don’t disagree she’s the favorite, I’m also not interested in backing her at these odds.
Kostyuk would have been high on my list to make another deep run, had she not pulled out with a hip injury yesterday. The Ukrainian is 11-0 on clay this year, unbeaten since Rouen, and just overcame Andreeva in Madrid. Her withdrawal opens up the bottom half of the draw nicely.
Which brings me to Andreeva at 15.00 (+1400), who I think is the best value in this tournament. The 19-year-old has had a sensational clay season, winning Linz, beating Swiatek in Stuttgart, then tearing through Madrid before running into Kostyuk in the final. She’s won 12 clay matches this year, the most of anyone on tour.
Andreeva’s draw in Rome is favorable too – she’s the eighth seed, in a quarter where Jasmine Paolini (9-9 this season, miles off her 2025 level) is the biggest name she’ll meet before the quarters. Andreeva is seeded to meet Coco Gauff in the quarters, but I’m not convinced the American will make it there. She’s been patchy in 2026, so an early exit isn’t off the cards at all.
Muchova to make the last four at 8.00 (+700) is my second pick, a market I’m high on coming into Rome. The Czech is 22-5 this year, won the WTA 1000 in Doha, then made the Stuttgart final where she beat both Gauff and Svitolina before losing to Elena Rybakina. She skipped Madrid entirely, which means she arrives in Rome fresh and rested.
Her path to the semis looks very manageable. She’s the 11th seed in the third quarter and opens against a qualifier, with Liudmila Samsonova likely in the third round. The round of 16 should bring either Jessica Pegula or Leylah Fernandez, neither of whom is playing their best clay tennis. And then the quarter-final would probably mean Iga Swiatek, who I view the same way as Gauff – far too inconsistent to even trust she’ll make it this deep. The Pole hasn’t made a single semi-final in 2026 and retired against Ann Li in Madrid. Whatever technical changes she’s working on with her new coaching setup, they aren’t translating into results yet.
Muchova’s game is tailor-made for clay too. The variety she brings – slice, net approaches, willingness to shorten points – is exactly what disrupts big hitters on this surface. She’s beaten Gauff, Svitolina, and Rybakina this year already, and her only losses in 2026 have come against top-four players.
Finally, keep an eye on Baptiste against Svitolina in what should be a fourth-round clash. Baptiste is the No 32 seed and riding enormous confidence after her Madrid run, where she stunned Sabalenka and made the semis of a WTA 1000 for the first time.
Svitolina is seeded seventh and has won Rome twice before, back in 2017 and 2018, so she knows this place. But she was dire in Madrid, losing early to Anna Bondar, and has been pretty quiet overall since Indian Wells.
Baptiste should be at healthy underdog odds if she makes it as far as this match. Yet the American served 12 aces against Sabalenka when she beat her in Madrid, and showed she can compete at this level for sustained periods. If she’s paying anywhere over 2.00 (+100), I’d be happy to get in on her in this match up.