Small Sample Size Craziness is Still Here- Player Commentary- May 3, 2026
Cody Bellinger– OF- NYY- Hot- Regression is helping Bellinger. He went 4-for-4 with 2 homers, 3 runs and 4 RBI yesterday. He entered the game with a .250 AVG and .402 SLG and an xBA of .278 and xSLG of .449. After the dust settled in the Bronx, Bellinger is slashing .276/.372/.483 with 5 homers. That was a fast correction. Bellinger was projected to hit .278 and slug .475 with 25 homers this season and is on pace for that.
Ryne Nelson– P- ARI- Hot- Nelson bounced back from two bad starts to come within one out of a quality start yesterday. In his two previous starts he had been charged with 14 ERs on 15 hits and 3 walks in a total of 5.1 IP. Nelson’s ERA had ballooned from 3.54 to 7.71. Yesterday he gave up one run on 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4 in 5.2 IP. In 2025 Nelson overperformed a bit with a 3.39 ERA and 3.73 FIP. He has missed more bats this season, with a 30.2% chase rate and 10.5% SwStr% and his K/9 has risen from 7.71 to 8.04. Nelson’s FIP is still at 5.50, but those two disasters are having a big impact on his results. There is a good chance that those were outliers and Nelson’s numbers will improve.
Rhett Lowder– P- CIN- Cold- We are still in the part of the season where a single game can radically change the cumulative stats. Lowder entered yesterday’s start with a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 2.65 BB/9. After he was able to last only 1.1 IP and was charged with 8 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks, those numbers were very different. Lowder now has a 5.09 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 3.57 BB/9. The good news is that his FIP didn’t take as big a hit, rising from 2.93 to 3.22. Lowder was projected to end up with a 4.37 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 93 Ks in 142 IPs, so he was likely overperforming. Yesterday’s correction came in a huge helping.
Tyler Black– 3B- MIL- Hot- Black has a .429/.455/.619 slash line in his 6 games since he was recalled from AAA Nashville. A lot of good fortune has come to Black in those games. He has a .563 BABIP. Black’s EV is 82.9 and HardHit% is 12.5% (that’s not a typo.) His xBA is .158 and xSLG is .225. This initial white hot stretch is not enough to get excited about.
Chris Sale– P- ATL- Hot- Sale was in classic form yesterday, allowing 1 run on 3 hits and 3 walks while striking out 11 in 7 IP. He threw 102 pitches, 70 of them for strikes. This was Sale’s 4th consecutive quality start and 6th in his 7 outings this year. He has allowed more than 1 run only once, in an outlier that saw him cough up 6 runs in 4 IP on April 6. Sale turned 37 in March but is not showing signs of age-related decline. His fastball velocity is over 95. Sale has a 2.14 ERA with a higher 3.50 FIP, but that one clunker throws a statistical wrench in the works. He is in Cy Young form.
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