After all the rumors and leaks, we finally have the 2026 NFL schedule etched in stone, which means it’s time to make some (way-too-early) predictions.
For that, we’ll simulate the season 100,000 times using my NFL Projection Model to see who is most likely to come out on top.
The model works by projecting how a team performs compared to league average. Using this projection, we are then able to predict a winner for every game on the schedule. These projections take into account home-field advantage, rest and travel. And since it’s only May, rosters could still change and alter these projections — make sure to keep that in mind.
Will the NFC run through L.A. or Seattle?
The Seattle Seahawks beat the Los Angeles Rams two out of three times last year — including in the NFC Championship Game — en route to a Super Bowl title, but those three games were decided by a combined seven points. And home-field advantage might have been the difference, as the hosts went 3-0.
My model has the Rams on top this year, however, as they’re projected to be the better team — barely. The Seahawks actually have a slight edge in projected win total (11.2 to 11.1), but the Rams have better playoff (82 percent to 81.3) and Super Bowl (14.1 to 12.5) odds.
Generally, offense in the NFL is more repeatable year over year than defense, and the strength of last season’s Super Bowl-winning Seahawks squad certainly was on the defensive side of the ball. Factor in some of the offseason losses the Seahawks had on defense, paired with the Las Vegas Raiders hiring away former offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and it’s not hard to see why the model is a little lower on Seattle this season.
Mike Macdonald is one of the best coaches in football, but I think the same of Sean McVay. And heading into 2026, I’m riding with McVay and Matthew Stafford as Super Bowl favorites.
Can Lions go worst to first?
Let’s rewind to Christmas of last year, when the Max Brosmer-led Minnesota Vikings beat the Detroit Lions, 23-10. That game ultimately led to the Lions (who finished 9-8) finishing fourth in the NFC North.
Why was that result so important? Well, the Lions now project to face the league’s third-easiest schedule in 2026, per my model, and a significantly easier schedule than they’d be dealing with had they knocked off the Vikings and finished as high as second in the division. My model has them projected as the NFC North favorite this year (10.3 wins), with the Green Bay Packers in second (9.9 wins).
Even putting the schedule boost aside, the Lions dealt with a ton of injuries on defense last year. Through Week 8 of the ’25 season, my model had the Lions as the sixth-best defense by expected points added (EPA); from Week 9 until the end of the season, they fell to 19th. I think it’s fair to say that the Lions have a chance to field a top-10 defense this year, and — with their light schedule — it shouldn’t surprise anyone that they’re the division favorite.
QB superstars back atop the AFC
Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson all missed the AFC Championship Game last year (the latter two didn’t even make the playoffs), marking the first time that has happened since the 2017 season. Mahomes had been to seven consecutive AFC title games, while Allen made two trips since 2020 and Jackson was there in 2023.
Off the down year, though, my model is bullish on those three star quarterbacks getting back to the top of the AFC.
Allen’s Buffalo Bills are the current AFC favorites, which makes sense considering Mahomes’ status for the start of the year is in question because of a knee injury, and Jackson also missed time during the 2025 season. The Bills also were just the better team last year, even when all of those QBs were healthy. Buffalo did make a change at head coach, so Allen does have some uncertainty surrounding his situation entering the season.
My model is still bullish on Mahomes (even off the ACL injury) and Jackson, too. When healthy, the best players at the most important position in football will always find their way to the top of the standings.
The dreadful NFC South
If you comb through those above projections, you won’t find an NFC South team in the top half of the chart. That’s because every single team in that division is projected to finish with a losing record in 2026. And it’s not even to where we could round up and get someone to nine wins — three of those four clubs (New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Atlanta) barely scraped near the eight-win mark, while last year’s division winner (Carolina) is projected to finish with just 7.1 wins.
This shouldn’t be too shocking, though — no NFC South team finished with a winning record in 2025, either. And in true NFL fashion, the Panthers still gave the Rams quite the scare on Wild Card Weekend.