Swinging and missing at record-breaking levels – May 15th, 2026
Luke Raley (OF – SEA) – Raley was 2-5 with his 10th HR of the year in the 8-3 win over Houston on Thursday, and he’s now hitting 268/333/589 for the season and on pace for nearly a 40/100 season in the power categories. The contact rate is, quite honestly, the lowest that I’ve ever seen for a regular, and that does indeed include Joey Gallo. The bat speed and exit velo are up significantly, about as much as the GB rate is down. All these things are making the power play up to its maximum level, but I absolutely cannot get behind a player that is swinging and missing 1/4 of the time. League average is less than half of that, and I’ve never seen anyone have consistent success with anything close to this number. I am absolutely selling high/not touching him with a 10-foot pole, personally.
Foster Griffin (SP – WAS) – Griffin’s 4-start QS streak came to a screeching halt on Thursday afternoon with a 4 1/3 IP, 9 ER outing in Cincinnati. He did generate 12 whiffs on 92 pitches and struck out 7 in the outing, but we are firmly into “Cincy is a bandbox” territory again, as there were 45 runs scored in the 3-game series this week. As such, this was the kind of start that you would bench a streamer like Griffin, not that many did as hot as he had been coming into the outing (myself included). Next week is a very tricky 2-starter for the 30 year old, with a home start against the Mets followed by a trip to Atlanta. Despite Thursday’s result, I’m inclined to roll Griffin out in most cases for next week because the Braves are much more apt to be handled acceptably by a LHP as one-sided as that offense is without a healthy Acuna, while the Mets are a bottom-tier offense so far this year no matter what split you want to look at. The advanced ERA metrics all showed between a 3.84 and 4.08 ERA protection for Griffin coming into Thursday’s start, and I still feel like that’s an appropriate expectation (and that’s also still better than average).
Zebby Matthews (SP – MIN) – Matthews made his season debut for the Twins on Thursday, shutting out the Marlins for 7 innings while allowing just 4 hits and a walk with 5 K’s. His velocity was down quite a bit from last season (and it has been at AAA also), hence the decline in K rate and swinging strike rate that we’re seeing. He’s generating some more groundballs than last year though, and that continued in Thursday’s outing, which is good because the homers have been his biggest issue at the top level. Matthews isn’t guaranteed another start as of now, but I’d be surprised if the Twins don’t opt to give him a chance against Houston next week, and the Astros have been struggling a bit over the last few weeks with some injuries weakening their offensive core. I’m inclined to give him a chance if he does get the opportunity next week.
Spencer Horwitz (1B – PIT) – Horwitz was 1-4 with a double on Thursday against the Rockies, and he’s now 11-36 with 5 doubles and a triple in May with twice as many walks as K’s. We’re all sometimes overly enamored with power and speed, often at the expense of contact ability, which makes Horwitz frequently overlooked. The 28 year old is a fantastic contact hitter with very good plate discipline, and as such has been reaching base at over a .400 clip since April 1. He’s a 10-15 HR guy with very little speed, but the floor here is pretty good with a quality OBP and a much better overall offense than the Pirates have sported in many a year. Horwitz probably doesn’t have quite enough ceiling for more than an injury stopgap role in standard formats, but in deeper leagues and NL-only formats he’s likely a very underrated asset.
Ben Brown (SP – CHC) – After 4 no-hit innings in his first start of the season, Brown did actually allow a hit in his start against Atlanta Thursday, but just the 1 over 4 more shutout innings with 1 walk and 7 K’s. Brown’s arm talent is undeniable, and while he does allow a fair amount of hard contact, his control is above average and he misses bats at a very solid level. With Cade Horton out for the year and Steele and Boyd both still missing for quite some time, there should be some leash here for Brown, who just oozes potential. Watching these last two outings, I’m inclined to buy in here in hopes that he’ll maintain his rotation spot even after the injured starters begin to return.
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