The Gavin Williams Breakout Continues – April 30, 2026
Taj Bradley (SP-MIN) put together another quality outing in a no-decision against the Mariners on Wednesday, allowing 2 ER on 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7 over 7 IP. The 25 year-old righty served up a lone round tripper while firing 73 of his 114 offerings for strikes in the contest. Bradley now owns a respectable 2.85 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 4.08 xFIP through his first 7 starts (41 IP) of the 2026 campaign. The walks are a bit concerning while the gap between his ERA and xFIP indicates that an 86.5% strand rate (69.5% career) in particular is suppressing his ERA a bit. Bradley isn’t missing a lot of bats as his swinging-strike rate is a modest 10% and opposing hitters have logged an 87% in-zone contact rate against him while Statcast shows a lot of loud contact in a 46.5% hard-hit rate, 7.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 94 mph. He’s always had potential, but regression seems likely. Up next is a start at the Nationals slated for Tuesday.
Gavin Williams (SP-CLE) was electric against the Rays on Wednesday afternoon as he allowed 1 unearned run on 5 hits and no walks while racking up 9 punchouts over 7.2 IP. The 26 year-old RHP threw 71 of his 95 pitches for strikes in the performance. Williams does seem to be in the midst of a breakout campaign as he now boasts a 2.70 ERA, 11 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 3.19 xFIP through his first 7 starts (43.1 IP) of the season. While his control remains suspect, Williams is missing bats at a strong 13% clip while the opposition’s in-zone contact rate is below league average at 84.5% and the opposition’s chase rate is up to a career high 31.5%. Concerningly, there’s been lots of loud contact as Statcast shows a 47% hard-hit rate, 16.5% barrel rate, and average ext velo of 92 mph, which does not pair well with a high walk rate. While the bat-missing ability is great, the hard contact and bases on balls will likely lead to some rougher outings. Up next is a start in Kansas City early next week.
Drew Rasmussen (SP-TB) took the L at Cleveland on Wednesday afternoon as he yielded 3 runs (2 ER) on 6 hits and a walk while striking out 6 across 5 IP. The 30 year-old righty kept the ball in the yard as he threw 65 of his 91 offerings for strikes in the contest. Overall, it’s been a strong start to the 2026 campaign for Rasmussen, who now claims a 2.64 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and 2.84 xFIP through 6 starts (30.2 IP). He doesn’t pitch deep into ballgames, but his control has been plus-plus even as he’s limited loud contact to the tune of a 35.5% hard-hit rate, 10.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 86.5 mph. But Rasmussen’s strikeout rate seems likely to dip as he doesn’t miss many bats (10% swinging-strike rate), the opposition’s chase rate is below average (28.5%), and they make a good bit of contact inside the zone (89.5%). A home start against the Blue Jays is on tap for early next week.
Garrett Crochet (SP-BOS) landed on the 15-day IL with left (throwing) shoulder inflammation on Wednesday and his timeline to return is currently unclear. The team is expected to promote southpaw Jake Bennett from Triple-A Worcester to replace Crochet for at least two turns through the rotation. This naturally comes after Crochet put together his single best start of the 2026 season at Baltimore on Saturday (6 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K). The 26 year-old lefty has otherwise endured a rough start to the season as he owns a 6.30 ERA and 3.3 BB/9 through 30 IP, but a 3.69 xFIP and 11.1 K/9 aren’t bad at all. He’s suffered from some poor luck in the form of a 61% strand rate (77% career) and .346 BABIP (.303 career), but it’s worth noting that the opposition’s in-zone contact rate is up to 87.5% (81% career) while his swinging-strike rate is down to 11% (14% career). There’s also been a concerning amount of loud contact as Statcast shows a 45.5% hard-hit rate, 10.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 89.5 mph that all come in well north of his career norms. While he might normally be a buy-low candidate given his proven track record, the shoulder issue makes that a risky proposition.
Yusei Kikuchi (SP-LAA) exited Wednesday’s start against the White Sox after just 2 IP (0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 K) after experiencing tightness in his left (throwing) shoulder that led to a small velocity dip. He’s considered day-to-day as the issue is evaluated. The 34 year-old is struggling a bit in the early going of the 2026 campaign, but not quite as much as his 5.81 ERA and 4.1 BB/9 through 31 IP suggest. With a 4.21 xFIP and 10.6 K/9, the southpaw has suffered from a low 65.5% strand rate and high .352 BABIP. His 11% swinging-strike rate and 85.5% in-zone contact rate are right about his career norms while the opposition’s quality of contact is par for the course with Statcast showing a 43.5% hard-hit rate, 9% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 90.5 mph. It remains to be seen whether he will be ready for his next start, which lines up to come at home against the White Sox early next week, but fantasy owners should expect some correction to the mean going forward.
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