For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.
This week, the Tour heads north to Ohio to Jack’s place for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village in Dublin.
This Week: the Memorial Tournament
- Date: June 4-7, 2026
- Location: Dublin, Ohio
- Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
- How to watch: CBS, Golf Channel, ESPN+
- Purse: $20,000,000
- Defending champ: Scottie Scheffler (twice)
Which skills the course rewards
Muirfield Village is Jack Nicklaus’ most famous course and has hosted the Memorial Tournament since he founded the event in 1976. It’s also hosted a Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup. The course plays as a Par 72 at around 7,500 yards after Nicklaus lengthened it by nearly 200 yards to continue testing the game’s best. A lot of the yardage was put on the Par 5s, which now play as three-shot holes for many players when the tees are all the way back.
Muirfield is a classic track with tree-lined fairways and tricky greens. As with most Nicklaus courses, there’s a lot of trouble to be found with water hazards on 11 holes and deep bunkers spread across the layout. The redesign has tightened up the fairways the farther a player hits it, and it’s added even more nightmarish pin locations to challenge the world’s best players. The greens were changed from a Poa Annua and Bent mix to pure Bent, which has made some of the fastest greens on Tour even faster.
It should come as no surprise on Nicklaus’ pride and joy that approach play is far and away the biggest factor in contending for a victory. Winners like William McGirt and Jason Dufner should showcase that you can get it done at Memorial with elite ball striking alone. Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland have also taken a liking to the track as premier iron players.
Driving distance will mostly be ignored this week, but the entire picture of SG: Off the Tee has been more predictive of success than you’d expect at Memorial. The last ten winners have averaged around 8th in SG: OTT for the week, and it’s been with a mix of accuracy and distance. I used to lean toward accuracy here, but with the fairways even more pinched, you could argue that hitting it hard and accepting the consequences could be more beneficial.
With the toughened contours on and around the greens, scrambling remains important at the Memorial. Putting hasn’t been very predictive of success here, with plenty of poor putters managing to get the job done. Bogeys Avoided and SG: Par 5 are another couple of stats that have been predictive around Muirfield.
How the model works
The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 25% SG: Approach, 15% SG: Around the Green, 15% SG: Off the Tee, 10% SG: Putting (Bent), 10% Greens in Regulations %, 10% SG: Par 5, 10% Bogey Avoidance and 5% Par 4: 451-500 yards.
Power rankings
(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)
10. Alex Smalley (+6000, +860, +365)
Model rank: 6th
I think this ascension from Smalley is serious, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it continue throughout the summer. Smalley has the skillset to be a top player in the world, and the improvement on and around the greens makes him a dangerous player. This is a second-shot course, and that’s what the Duke product has done so well of late. Ranks 3rd in GIR%.
9. Xander Schauffele (+1700, +300, +138)
Model rank: 7th
Schauffele just hasn’t moved me lately. He seemed to be making a turnaround at the end of the Florida Swing, but it continues to be more of the same with Schauffele seemingly always in the mix but rarely deep in contention on a Sunday. He also has just one top 10 at the Memorial in his career and hasn’t hit the irons well lately. Ranks 4th in SG: OTT.
8. Russell Henley (+2000, +330, +150)
Model rank: 10th
Henley sort of came out of nowhere to win at Colonial after struggling a bit since his T3 at the Masters. That poor play was led by rare iron play struggles from the Georgia Bulldog, which was strongly corrected after gaining more than 8 strokes on approach in his win. Henley was T5 at Memorial last year and should be a great course fit if the form continues. Ranks 7th in bogey avoidance.
7. Patrick Cantlay (+2700, +435, +196)
Model rank: 9th
Cantlay absolutely loves Muirfield Village. He won here in 2019 and 2021 and has added a pair of top-5 finishes around them. Even though he’s been quiet the past couple of years, Cantlay has been playing solid golf as of late and producing some of the ball striking that once made him one of the top players in the game. He just has to figure the putter out. Ranks 2nd in SG: ARG.
6. Rory McIlroy (+980, +194, -108)
Model rank: 2nd
This is one of those rare prestigious tournaments that McIlroy hasn’t managed to take down yet in his career. He’s gotten closer as of late, with finishes of T5, T15 and T7 in his last three tries. It’s not the best course fit for his game, but the increased length and less emphasis on accuracy off the tee certainly give him a better chance. Ranks 1st in SG: OTT.
5. J.J. Spaun (+4100, +630, +270)
Model rank: 8th
Spaun continues to get overlooked for whatever reason, but the reality right now is that when he putts decently, he’s likely in contention on the weekend. The iron play has been superb for months now, and Memorial works well for Spaun’s style of play despite a lack of results here. With some recent improvements on the greens, Spaun should often be a factor. Ranks 3rd in SG: APP.
4. Ludvig Aberg (+1600, +290, +136)
Model rank: 5th
The Swede continues his solid play but didn’t have a chance to win on Sunday at Colonial thanks to a fairly average week with the irons. Muirfield should be a better course fit for Aberg, who can use his rare mix of power and accuracy to attack in ways that most players in the field cannot. He’s been T5 and T16 here in his two tries and should again like his chances if the putter cooperates. Ranks 6th in SG: APP.
3. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1950, +330, +150)
Model rank: 4th
Fitzpatrick has three top 10’s at Memorial since 2020 and seems to really like the course with his game. After a bad week at Quail Hollow, the Englishman got things back on track with a solid T14 at the PGA Championship despite never making much on the greens. This is a tournament I’d be surprised if Fitzpatrick never won. Ranks 1st in SG: ARG.
2. Cameron Young (+1425, +260, +122)
Model rank: 3rd
After a crazy run of short game success from Young that helped him win The Players and the Cadillac, Young has finally run into some troubles both on and around the greens in his last two starts that prevented him from contending on Sunday. I’d expect that to be the main thing to watch from him week-to-week, because the ball striking is world-class. Ranks 2nd in SG: OTT.
1. Scottie Scheffler (+310, -148, -320)
Model rank: 1st
The two-time defending champion at the Memorial hasn’t finished worse than 3rd at Muirfield Village since 2020. It’s a course that feels tailor-made for his skillset, and that has certainly shown in the results. A poor putter at the PGA caused a T14 finish for Scheffler, but otherwise, he continues to be right in the thick of it on every Sunday and will surely win again soon. Ranks 1st in SG: APP.
Who do you like this week at Memorial? Let me know below in the comments.