In just about every mock draft you read, the Washington Nationals are connected to one name. That name is 17 year old prodigy Jared Grindlinger, who is a two way player who reclassified into the 2026 class. Grindlinger is the youngest player in the draft, not turning 18 until next April. His youth and intriguing skillset clearly has Paul Toboni’s attention.
MLB Pipeline just dropped a mock draft about a week ago where the Nats selected Grindlinger. In the mock they said that other teams think the Nats are the best bet to take Grindlinger in the top 20. Baseball America echoed the same sentiments, but interestingly said that Paul Toboni’s old organization, the Red Sox are also in on Grindlinger.
The Red Sox and the Nats both being high on Grindlinger should not come as much of a surprise. Toboni and Devin Pearson ran the Red Sox draft room for years, and I imagine that both teams have similar models. With the two organizations having a similar process, I would think there is a lot of overlap on their draft boards, not just with Grindlinger.
Now that we have set the stage, I want to talk about Grindlinger the player. He is a two way prospect with scouts genuinely split on which route he should take. On the mound, he is a polished and projectible left handed pitcher. His fastball is in the low-90’s right now, but it is easy to dream on more velocity down the road as he grows into his 6’3 frame. He also has a solid slider and a potentially plus changeup. To top it all off, Grindlinger has very good control.
Despite all of this, the feeling lately is that Grindlinger’s future is in the outfield, not on the mound. Even though he is the youngest player in the class, Grindlinger has one of the best hit tools out there. His contact rates on the showcase circuit this summer were even better than the ones Eli Willits posted in his draft summer. Given the youth of the two players, Grindlinger and Willits are very easy to compare.
Like Willits, Grindlinger makes a ton of contact and does not chase. Right now he does not have much power, but like his fastball velocity, it is easy to see him develop more power as he grows. When you look at Grindlinger, you can tell he can add at least 15 to 20 pounds of good weight. As you would expect from a kid who just turned 17, he does not have his man strength yet.
If that power does come, Grindlinger has the potential to be a truly elite bat. He is not the fastest, so he profiles best as a corner outfielder, but the bat is good enough to play out there. You can dream on a .300 bat that hits 25 homers if everything goes right. That is truly star upside.
There is also talk that Grindlinger could play both ways, at least to start his career. Baseball America mentioned that as a possibility, but said more analytically inclined teams like Grindlinger more as a hitter. I would assume the Nats fall into that analytically inclined category.
While there is a lot to like about Grindlinger, I also have some hesitation. You cannot deny the upside, but this is going to be a long term project. It would be hard for me to see the Nats pass up on a college arm or a polished college bat that could help this team as soon as next season. With the way the Nats are playing, there could be a window opening up in the next couple years.
Just from a physicality standpoint, Grindlinger needs to put on a lot of mass to have a big league ready body. With how young he is, Grindlinger is at least 3 to 4 years away from the big leagues. He will be almost 6 months younger this draft day than Eli Willits was on draft day last year. Grindlinger may have more upside, but Chris Hacopian or Cam Flukey could help this team in the CJ Abrams and James Wood window.
Paul Toboni has a decision to make on draft day, and who he selects will be telling. If he takes someone like Grindlinger, it would suggest the Nats are still focusing on the very long term. However, if they take a college guy, especially an arm, it would mean that he is focusing on winning in the next couple years.
Of course, the primary objective of the draft is to take the most talented players you can. However, you would be foolish to think that these sorts of conversations about proximity do not come up in a draft room. The draft conversation will continue to take place until the event itself on July 11th. Jared Grindlinger figures to be a player we will be talking about a lot for the next month.