The Cincinnati Reds bullpen was very good through the end of April. When the first full month of the season came to an end the Reds had a 3.44 ERA from their relievers. That was the 5th best ERA in baseball among the bullpens. They were keeping the ball in the park quite well.
But there were some warning signs, too. They were walking a ton of batters. Their 14.1% walk rate was the third highest in baseball. They were also getting the second least amount of groundballs in the league. While that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, at times it can cost you – and especially when you play in Great American Ball Park and aren’t giving up home runs despite a ton of fly balls, the odds are probably going to catch up to you.
And did things ever catch up to the Cincinnati bullpen. Since May began they have a lead worst 6.55 ERA. That’s 43 points worse than the next worst team and 96 points worst than the team with the 28th worst bullpen ERA since the start of May. They still aren’t getting groundballs, but they are now giving up home runs on fly balls are a significantly higher rate than any team in baseball. The walk rate? The worst in baseball. Strikeouts? Well, those aren’t the worst in baseball but they have the 9th lowest rate in baseball.
In short, things have been about as bad as they could be. The bullpen has been atrocious since May began. And it’s not like the team hasn’t been trying to find solutions. They have made a bunch of roster moves to try and get new arms in. The problem is that the depth simply isn’t there. Some of that is due to the injuries. Not having Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, and Rhett Lowder as starters has pushed other guys up the depth chart that wouldn’t be there. Losing Emilio Pagan was a big blow to the bullpen’s pecking order. Caleb Ferguson just recently returned to the mound after not pitching all season. And then in the minor leagues the team has also been without Julian Aguiar since early April, who is on the 40-man roster and could have potentially been an option.
In the last week they have also lost Pierce Johnson and Graham Ashcraft to the injured list. Ashcraft’s injury is a lot more concerning and he’s going to miss at least two months.
All of that really put a strain on the level of talent that was available to be called on. But even so, the depth in Triple-A was questionable when it came to much of the pitching staff. It was filled with guys who throw 100 MPH with no idea where it’s going or guys that throw 90 MPH who are in their late 20’s to early 30’s. The former are types you like to have around in case they figure it out. The latter are types you like to have around in Triple-A because they can sometimes get the job done there and help the team win and maybe impart some wisdom to the younger guys, but are almost never the guys you want to have to call up to pitch in the big leagues because they just don’t have the stuff.
So with all of that said, the big question is where do the Reds go from here if they want to fix their bullpen woes? And the answer probably isn’t one that’s going to make anyone feel good because the answer is likely they have nowhere to go and no fixes. Teams aren’t going to be trading guys right now that can be expected to be good big league relievers on the mound tonight unless you massively overpay for them. The internal solutions don’t appear to be there. Derek Johnson isn’t a wizard who can wave a wand and use magic.
The most likely answer that could be an actual solution is to simply wait. The Reds need guys to get healthy. Emilio Pagan’s injury looked far worse on the night it happened than it turned out to be. Getting him back will be beneficial. Rhett Lowder is expected back in the rotation this next week, which seems like it’s going to push Chris Paddack to the bullpen. Your mileage may vary on that addition to the bullpen but historically he’s thrown strikes and he’s been solid enough since joining the team as a starter. Julian Aguiar has made several rehab starts in the minor leagues, so he could potentially be an option they look at soon if things don’t get better.
And then there’s Hunter Greene. He’s still a ways from returning, but his addition to the rotation could potentially give the Reds more depth and make for someone in the rotation winding up in the bullpen.
The question is – even if all of that stuff goes right for the Reds, will it be too late? The entire National League Central division remains above the .500 mark. Cincinnati has a lot of games to play against them and has plenty of catching up to do with them, too. Will they be in too much of a hole to climb out of by then?