It’s been ten years since the Maple Leafs selected Auston Matthews with the first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. The landscape of the league has changed dramatically since, and it’s worth exploring what to realistically expect from McKenna during his rookie campaign. Here’s where McKenna would rank among the last 10 first overall picks.
1. Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks (2024)
Celebrini is already one of the best players in the world, after posting an 115-point campaign with the San Jose Sharks. After becoming the youngest player ever to win the Hobey Baker Award at Boston University, Celebrini took the NHL by storm immediately, and was Canada’s second-best player at the Olympics this winter. Although Celebrini was billed as a prospect with few holes in their game, few would’ve expected him to rise to superstardom this quickly. Perhaps the brightest young player in the league, Celebrini is the primary reason why the Sharks are considered the NHL’s most promising upstart entering next fall.
2. Matthew Schaefer, New York Islanders (2025)
Schaefer posted the best rookie campaign ever by a defenceman, and his transformative skating kept the Islanders in the playoff race until the final two weeks of the season. He’s already considered one of the NHL’s best defenceman and earned down-ballot votes for the Norris Trophy, while winning the Calder Trophy unanimously. Schaefer was among the final cuts for Canada’s Olympic team as well. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Schaefer start winning the Norris as early as next season, while galvanizing the Islanders as their franchise player.
3. Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks (2023)
Bedard hasn’t met the astronomical hype cast upon him prior to joining the NHL, but he’s the face of the Blackhawks. Although he hasn’t been given much support, Bedard has posted three consecutive 60-point plus seasons, while showing glimpses of his all-world potential. Bedard has a wicked release and many expect him to take another leap during his fourth season. Although Bedard entered the league with more fanfare than any prospect on this list, Celebrini and Schaefer’s superior starts to their respective careers drop Chicago’s star pivot down to the third spot.
4. Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres (2018)
It took a few seasons, but Dahlin has been one of the NHL’s best defencemen for the past five seasons, earning three All-Star selections, while being named as a finalist for the Norris Trophy this year. Buffalo’s captain is a tremendous two-way force who can take over games and control play with relative ease. Now, the rest of his Sabres teammates are beginning to catch up, as the team captured the Atlantic Division title, before faltering in the second round. Dahlin could rise up this list in the next few years, as he firmly enters the prime of his career.
5. Gavin McKenna (2026)
McKenna has been in the public spotlight for five years as a prodigious offensive talent. He’s the near-consensus favourite to go first overall this year, and the dynamic winger is intent on joining the Maple Leafs. Although he’s a flawed prospect with significant holes in his defensive game, McKenna’s offensive output has drawn comparisons to Nikita Kucherov and Patrick Kane. If he comes anywhere close to approximating his pro comparisons, he’ll become a deity in Toronto.
6. Jack Hughes, New Jersey Devils (2019)
Hughes is one of the NHL’s most gifted offensive talents, peaking with a 99-point campaign in 2023. He’s an outstanding skater who can control games with his pace, playmaking and instincts. Although he’s a top-25 player in the NHL by most accounts, while becoming one of the faces of USA Hockey, it’s now a matter of whether Hughes can lead the Devils to sustained team success as their core matures into their prime years.
7. Nico Hischier, New Jersey Devils (2017)
Hischier is one of the NHL’s best two-way forwards, and is always in contention for the Selke Trophy. He will consistently produce 65 points per year while locking down the other team’s top players. Hischier has become a model of consistency for the Devils, but like Hughes, it’s now a matter of Hischier and Hughes driving the team towards a deep playoff run or two.
8. Juraj Slafkovsky, Montreal Canadiens (2022)
9. Owen Power, Buffalo Sabres (2021)
Power is a decent top-pairing defenceman for the Sabres, and while he’s still just 23 years old, it looks unlikely that he’ll become a star. He’s a useful player with a cannon of a shot and strong skating, but Dahlin is the clear leader of Buffalo’s defence corps. It’s not an outright miss but there are better players from the 2021 class, including Dallas’s Wyatt Johnston and Utah’s Dylan Guenther, among others.
10. Alexis Lafreniere, New York Rangers (2020)
Lafreniere is coming off a 57-point campaign, tied for his career-high. He hasn’t produced anywhere close to the level that he displayed in major junior, while the Rangers have been seemingly content to use him as a high-end second-line forward. Lafreniere will show flashes of his tremendous skill set, but he hasn’t met the expectations that came with him being billed as a prodigious scorer. This is essentially the floor for McKenna.