An in-depth look at the favorites and the outsiders for the GC battle at the biggest race of the year.
With less than a week to go before the 2026 Tour de France gets underway, team roster announcements are rolling in and the biggest names are confirmed for the rollout in Barcelona. Between now and Saturday, riders and fans alike can sit back, relax, and let the excitement build – and we can also stake our reputation as experts on predictions about who is going to win this thing.
Really, you don’t need to be an expert to name the overall favorite for the Tour de France, seeing as he’s won the thing four times already, but do any of his rivals have a chance? Can Jonas Vingegaard topple Pogačar after two years of dominance by the world champ? Will someone else surprise us and them both?
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Here’s how we see things in the GC favorites conversation as the 2026 Tour de France looms …
The contenders
We’ll cut right to the chase with a breakdown of our top GC favorites before we go much deeper with analysis to come.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐: Tadej Pogačar
⭐⭐⭐⭐: Jonas Vingegaard
⭐⭐⭐: Paul Seixas, Remco Evenepoel, Florian Lipowitz
⭐⭐: Isaac del Toro, Juan Ayuso, Tom Pidcock
⭐: Tobias Halland Johannessen, Richard Carapaz, Ben Healy, Lenny Martinez, Antonio Tiberi, Matteo Jorgenson, Sepp Kuss, Jai Hindley, Kévin Vauquelin, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Michael Storer, Derek Gee-West, Mattias Skjelmose, Matthew Riccitello
The big favorite: Tadej Pogačar
The 27-year-old Slovenian is a heavy favorite to join legends Miguel Indurain, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, and Jacques Anquetil this year as a five-time Tour de France winner this July, and given his skillset, it’s not hard to understand why. He may be the most explosive climber that ever lived, and over the past two years, he has been the best climber in the world, period. He is also an ace time triliast and good enough bike handler that crashes haven’t kept him from winning anything in the past few seasons.
His stage racing exploits this season – wins at the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse – came against relatively weak fields, but they were so dominant that it is clear that Pogačar is in flying form heading into the biggest goal of his season.
Crunching the numbers
8/8
—Stage races Pogačar has won (no DNFs) since his loss in the 2023 Tour
His team
Surprising nobody, UAE Team Emirates-XRG will have serious firepower for this Tour, with Isaac del Toro headlining the support squad. Fresh off an overall win at the Tour Auvergne-Rhǒne-Alpes, the young Mexican star is sure to stick with Pogačar deep into the high-mountain stages, allowing UAE to put Pogačar’s rivals under pressure. Indeed, Del Toro himself seems like one of the likeliest contenders for the overall title in the unlikely event that something goes wrong for Pogačar. João Almeida is missing this year, but with Adam Yates, Brandon McNulty, and Tim Wellens, Pogačar will have even more firepower rounding out the train supporting him in the mountains, and reliable engines for the flatter stuff too.
All that said, Pogačar’s biggest rival will give UAE a run for their money in the team strength department – more on that in a moment.
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