Main draw action of The Championships gets underway on Monday. A look at the men’s singles draw.
Grass courts have a way of dragging modern tennis back to more quaint origins: topspin is muted, slices and volleys are rewarded, aggressive footwork can be punished, and precision can have its way over brute force. I think this is especially true in the early rounds, when the grass is still green and slick. But as the tournament progresses — especially if accompanied with warmer temps — the soil firms up and that playa-coloured baseline emerges.
Compared to most of the grass lead-in events, Wimbledon has typically been on the slower side in recent editions:
Temperatures are mild for opening rounds and expected to warm up toward the middle weekend:
A look at some serving trends for the seeds:
Tennis Insights@tennis_insights
On grass, the serve is your weapon🔥
Take a look at how the seeds compare for their averages for first serve speed and accuracy on the ATP Tour in the past 52-weeks📊
Fastest servers – @BenShelton and Lehecka💥
Most accurate – @b_nakashima 🎯
#TennisInsights | @atptour
11:03 AM · Jun 26, 2026 · 25.2K Views
7 Replies · 18 Reposts · 134 Likes
And some first-serve returning data of the top 20 and some chosen ones:
Matthew Willis@mattracquet
1st serve returns in play vs 1st serve return win rate 2025-2026. Top 20 + Jodar, Fils, Fonseca
4:03 PM · Jun 24, 2026 · 30.5K Views
3 Replies · 16 Reposts · 81 Likes
Alright that’s enough data. Let’s take a look at the draw and my picks.
Prefer to listen? I did a podcast version this afternoon thinking I wouldn’t have time to write this post. Be warned, it’s a gloriously unedited one-take on Quicktime:
But I’m a tennis sicko, and I prefer written content. Apologies to my Monday lessons for low-energy.
Sinner has been focusing more on heat measures than the field in recent weeks, given that element has proven more dangerous than the actual opponents in recent months. Medvedev is looking to snap a poor run of slam performances, and most people overlook him on grass, but it’s where his most recent slam semifinal run occurred in 2024. Has a tough opener in Cilic. Ruud is surely just here for some strawberries? Nakashima has a deadly serve and backhand, but the forehand and lack of net-game willingness holds him back from taking the next step (so far. There’s always time). Jodar has limited pro grass experience, but made a quarterfinal run in the 2024 Junior event. Is he fit? Tommy Paul has a lot of wins but no titles, and that trend might continue this fortnight.
Seeds Upset:
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Feeling it: Quinn def. Darderi. Both big forehands, but Quinn will use the net more; Hurkacz def. Ruud.
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Maybe? Pinnington Jones def. Nakashima
Quality Qualifier: Soon Woo Qwon is climbing his way back up the rankings after serving 18 months of mandatory military service in the Korean Armed Forces.
First-Round Match: Cilic vs Medvedev.
Dark Horses: Hamad Medjedovic has all-court firepower: serves, forehands, backhands (plus a drop shot on this wing).
Almost went with… Tommy Paul, but I find the forehand is such an Achilles’ heel in big moments. It was the case against Ruud in Paris, and last week against Cerundolo at times as well.
Toughest Draw?
Getting ahead of myself: Quinn vs Mochizuki would be a contest between one of the biggest and smallest forehands on tour. Quinn vs Jodar would be two of the biggest going toe-to-toe.
FAA has a good draw here and will be looking to build on his Roland Garros run. Djokovic comes in with zero prep but that hasn’t really factored in recent years so it’s hard not to pick him here. I think grass could become Tien’s best surface in time. Fucsovics could be a tricky second-rounder. No one talks about Rublev, but he makes the first weekend oh so often. Tough opener against his compatriot. Fonseca had a promising grass campaign last year, but right now he’s a low-floor/high-ceiling guy and RBA loves SW19. Norrie has been sneaky good here and has an interesting opener vs Zheng. Is Rinderknech fit? He took down Zverev last year. Fokina finally got his maiden title, is that good or bad so close to Wimbledon? A friendly opener helps.
Seeds Upset:
Quality Qualifier: Columbia senior Michael Zheng has qualified at all three majors this year.
First-Round Match: RBA vs Fonseca; Rublev vs Safiullin; Djokovic vs Wu
Dark Horses: Safiullin made the quarterfinals in 2023 and has good form right now; he won a challenger before RG and has come through qualifying here.
Almost went with… Learner Tien was tempting as hell, especially because he has beat/played close the two seeds in his section in ADF and FAA this year. Tien vs Djokovic would be a clinic in ball control.
Toughest Draw? Rublev.
Getting ahead of myself: Tien vs ADF was a thriller in Indian Wells earlier this year. A grass rematch would likely deliver.
De Minaur has grass pedigree and a recent finals appearance in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, but he’s been a touch off his best in recent months. Shelton’s clutch gene has been very expressive in recent weeks, but when does that wear off? Arthur Fils is reportedly fit and healthy and has been able to train at Wimbledon these past two weeks, courtesy of being coached by 2001 champ Goran Ivanisevic. Tough opener, but if he survives that, I actually think he could make a deep run here. Mensik serves and returns very well, and on a surface with an average rally length of 3.63 shots, that’s going to count. Cobolli made the quarters here last year and has a great draw. He’s kind of an up-and-down player, but a recent taste of the big-time fused with a good draw will bring out his best. Humbert gets a rematch against Sunday’s winner in Eastbourne, Zizou Bergs. Khachanov has been below his best. In fact, I don’t think he’s beaten a top 20 player since his run in Toronto last year.
Seeds Upset:
Quality Qualifier: Otto Virtanen serves big, hits big. Shelton isn’t breaking at a clip that would help him avoid some shoot-out tie-breakers.
First-Round Match: Fils vs Collignon.
Dark Horses: I think GMP is a 50/50 match with everyone in this quarter; that’s a feature and a bug. Majchrzak made the fourth-round last year and has form again.
Almost went with… Shelton. His draw is pretty good outside of this first-round. He’s been winning matches he probably should have lost recently (Giron, Fritz), but just doesn’t break often enough to give me confidence.
Toughest Draw? Fils. Collignon is tough. Berrettini is dangerous. Mensik is tough and dangerous.
Getting ahead of myself: Cobolli vs de Minaur would be a middleweight classic and we all know it.
For the second year in a row Fritz gets the most dangerous floater in the draw, and this time I don’t think he survives. Zverev opens against Blockx who he is already 2-0 against. Cerundolo won Queens but Munar is a sneaky big server and can hustle from the back. Lehecka has the game to rush the opponents of his opening couple of rounds. Tiafoe and Bublik both face dangerous, big-hitting openers but I feel they will survive and collide in round 3. Arnaldi made a deep run at RG and got some reps in at Eastbourne.
Seeds Upset:
Quality Qualifier: Mackie Mcdonald has the kind of eastern-bunty forehand made for grass, and made the fourth-round here in 2018.
First-Round Match: Fritz vs Draper, duh. But also a lot of interesting other ones in this section: Moutet vs Giron. Kokkinakis vs Bublik. Tiafoe vs Atmane.
Dark Horses: Alex Michelsen didn’t play any lead-ins but his under-powered game is well-suited: great flat backhand that he can redirect at will; moves forward well.
Almost went with… Tiafoe. Feel like this is a big chance for him, but his draw seems littered with high quality potentials.
Toughest Draw? Tiafoe.
Getting ahead of myself: There’s really no need when we have Draper vs Fritz in round 1!
After making this draw what has surprised me is that I picked so many seeds to the round of 16. I’m usually more interesting than that. This is unlikely to actually happen of course (grass has a way of making predictions even more foolish than they already are) but of the semifinalists especially, I felt they all had these conditions: (a) good draws through at least the first three rounds; (b) form; and (c) a history of performing well on grass.
Condition (b) may seem at odds with Djokovic, but I think his loss to Fonseca was completely fine, and I don’t care to assess his non-slam match performances at this stage of his career. Slams are all that matter. 1000s are training for the goat. So far at Wimbledon it’s taken Sinner or Alcaraz to stop him, and I think that will continue.
Condition (c) may seem at odds with Zverev, but despite zero titles on this surface, his grass win-loss is only a hair worse than his hardcourt stat. I don’t think winning Roland Garros will magically relieve him of match pressure in big moments, but it certainly won’t make it any worse knowing you’ve got the Coupe des Mousquetaires in your cabinet.
But should Zverev face Sinner in the final I don’t think mentality is the issue, as we’ve seen in recent months. There’s just no edge for him to pick at; Sinner serves as well — if not better for grass — and the Italian has much more capable and trusting offensive weaponry.
Well, let’s see how it plays out. See you in the comments. HC.