In Part 1 of Arctic Ice Hockey’s look at the Winnipeg Jets’ current pool of prospects, we discovered that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff & the scouting department may have potentially found some gems in the later rounds of the drafts with Elias Salomonsson (2nd rd), Kevin He (4th rd), and Kieron Walton (6th rd) all developing well since they were selected by the True North franchise.
Now we turn our attention to a handful of players that are living with the higher expectations that come along with being a 1st round draft pick in one of the National Hockey League’s Entry Drafts. Over the past 4 seasons (2022-2025), the True Northers managed to select four prospects in the drafts’ opening rounds:
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2022: 14th overall – Rutger McGroarty & 30th overall – Brad Lambert
2023: 18th overall – Colby Barlow
2024: None
2025: 28th overall – Sascha Boumedienne
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Of course, McGroarty thought there would be a quicker path to the NHL elsewhere and that resulted in Winnipeg accommodating him with a move to the Pittsburgh Penguins for fellow prospect Brayden Yager, the 14th overall pick of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
So now we have the 4 young players that I will dive into today and the expectations for the fanbase are high for these young players as a result of their draft positions. I realized that a 1st round draft pick is often viewed as bringing in the next superstar that can help lift our club to the next level….yet the reality is that not all draft spots in the top round are equal. If you went back and looked at all the drafts spanning 1963 to 2023, you would discover that while the top 5 players picked each year have a 80-85% chance to play at least 300 NHL games. That figure drops to around 50% by the 12th selection and then once again to 30-35% around the 18th pick, before bottoming out to the 25-30% range for the prospects opted by the teams with the last 5 selections.
When I took the time to glance at the True North’s drafting history since 2011, those above statistics played out for our team….as they have only managed to grab one elite player after the 13th overall pick in the 1st round of an NHL draft. And that was current Winnipeg sniper, Kyle Connor, who Chevy & company snagged with the 17th overall pick and was still available thanks the Boston Bruins whiffing on 2 of their 3 selections from 13th to 15th.
With Winnipeg’s recent regular season successes leading to mid to late 1st round opportunities, that means the likelihood that any of Barlow, Boumedienne, Lambert, & Yager become a game changer for the Jets was already diminished before their name was even called up to the podium. So with that cautionary warning out of the way…lets look at how the kids have been doing in the True North development system. Things began well with some promising non-1st round selections in the Jets’ prospects pool in Part 1…will that rosy outlook continue? Going from eldest to youngest of the 4 prospects, we kick things off with….
After Winnipeg added a larger & slower forward with the 14th overall pick (McGroarty), management decided to go the opposite direction with the 30th overall selection when they picked the smaller & speedier Brad Lambert. The Finnish forward flashed the skills that could end up being a long-term NHLer is his pre-draft year, despite his stats not jumping off the page while playing in his country’s highest league as an 18 yr old.
The Finn signed with the Jets right away and ended up splitting the following season between the AHL (3 pts in 14 gms) and the WHL (38 pts in 26 gms, then 20 pts in 17 playoff gms). Lambert followed up his Junior success with a fantastic rookie campaign with the Manitoba Moose, amassing 55 pts in 64 gms (.859 pts/gm). That season had pumped up my hopes for Brad, as he came close to matching what a 19 yr old Kyle Connor did at the same level & age. Yet, the past two seasons have seen the forward’s offensive output plummet (35 pts in 61 gms & 13 pts in 34 gms) as the mini-Jets have seemingly turned their focus to the defensive side of the puck, resulting in the Moose being among the lowest scoring clubs in the AHL the last 2 years.
Due to the big club’s disappointing 2025-26 regular season, Lambert did get the opportunity to get his first long stretch wearing a Jets’ jersey. While the coaching staff did him no favours with the talent levels of his linemates, the 22 yr old scored 3 goals & 6 points in his 25 NHL games this season. For the most part, Brad’s advanced stats were below the 50% mark….though he did have a run of success playing with Morgan Barron/Jonathan Toews & Cole Koepke (54.5% & 58.8% xG’s). To date, Lambo has managed to play a total of 31 NHL games, putting up 8 pts…which is as good as or better than all the prospects drafted around him.
The last 2 seasons’ poor point totals have seen Lambert drop from an Elite projected ceiling to a low-end 2nd line option, according to Dobber Prospect’s PNHLe chart. Oddly enough, their NHL Certainty rating of 8.0 suggests that Brad still has a good shot at becoming a full-time big leaguer despite that.
Part of that drop is on the young prospect, as he can “disappear” for chunks of games when the puck isn’t finding its way to his stick. However, another part is due to an organization flaw of not putting their high end prospects in the best place to succeed. While this hasn’t solely impacted the speedy Finn, since he is the longest tenured prospect in this article, he has had to deal with it the most. What I am alluding to is the AHL coaching staff’s tendency to go with trusted veterans in the top six and top powerplay unit, stealing opportunities for points & growth from the Jets’ prospects. I will totally agree that the trio of Mason Shaw, David Gustafsson, & Walker Duehr played some good hockey on the Moose’s top forward line…but wouldn’t it be a good idea to mix in a young prospect with all that experience? I bet Lambert’s stats would have been more impressive if he got to play along some of the limited play drivers Manitoba had last season.
The young Finn is losing his waiver-exempt status, so I am guessing that he has a very good chance to stick with Winnipeg after next year’s training camp. Hopefully the Jets’ coach will find a way to surround him with the right mix of linemates to allow Lambert’s elite puck-handling and skating to make the most impact (only had a total of 20 minutes playing on the 2nd line with Adam Lowry & Cole Perfetti this year). Brad’s agility & good edge-work allow him to avoid contact as he flies up the ice, making him a strong transition and zone entry option. Yet whether it is due to a lack of confidence or skills, the young prospect doesn’t really use his talents to drive play.
While I have outlined my final prediction of Lambo’s potentials below, I really do feel that he may need to play in the top six to be successful. That is probably because it has been so long since the Winnipeg Jets had anything other than a checking 3rd line going over the boards. Only 12.7% of 30th overall selections have managed to get more than 300 points in the NHL…..will Lambert be able to join that club?
POTENTIAL:
Ceiling: NHL Top Six Center or Winger
Most Likely: NHL Middle Six Center or Winger
Basement: NHL Bottom Six Winger
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In his pre-draft season, the young Canadian impressed the Pittsburgh Penguins by putting up 78 pts with the Moose Jaw Warriors (1.16 pts/gm) and they ended up selecting Brayden Yager with the 14th pick of the 2023 draft. The Saskatoon native followed that up with an even better Junior campaign, piling up 95 pts in just 57 contests (1.667 pts/gm) before he was traded to the Winnipeg Jets in a swap of 14th overall selections.
After joining the True North system, his final WHL season saw the Saskatchewan kid get traded mid-year from the Warriors to the Lethbridge Hurricanes while his production plateaued a bit with 82 pts between the clubs (1.519 pts/gm). This season saw Yager turn 20 yrs old, allowing him to turn pro with the Manitoba Moose in 2025-26 after competing in training camp with the Jets.
Once again, the numbers won’t immediately make you think future NHL star, as Yager amassed 30 pts in 68 AHL contests (0.441 pts/gm) as an AHL rookie. On the Moose’s offensively challenged squad, that was good for 7th in team scoring. Not bad for a debut, but also not fantastic. Yet, when I watched him I was impressed with his play on the ice….while I was ready for him to be responsible defensively because that is what all the scouts said we should expect, I was pleasantly surprised with the 21 yr old’s play-making abilities. He is valuable to the coaches he plays for due to his versatility, as he is as comfortable with the man advantage or when his club is down a man. For a player as young as he is, I think he is better at the face-off dot than they usually are (though don’t have the stats to back that up).
The rookie was also one of Manitoba’s most durable forwards, playing in all 68 games he was available for. Brayden missed the AHL’s final 4 contests though, as Winnipeg being eliminated from playoff contention saw management promote the center for the final 3 NHL games. While the Jets played far from inspired play in those matches, the 21 yr old managed to walk away with a 54% On Ice Expected Goals Percentage in those 3 losses. That happens to lead all Winnipeg players this season for 5 on 5 play, slightly ahead of Cole Perfetti’s 52.3%. Yager failed to get his name on the scoresheet for his first NHL point, but I walked away from it thinking that the boy is already playing a NHL level of defense. The people at Dobber Prospects seem to agree that he is close to being ready with their 8.0 NHL Certainty rating (a year earlier than Lambert) with their PNHLe chart suggesting he ends up filling a middle six role.
Personally, I think they might be a bit low on Yager’s potential above and his draft pedigree implies we should have higher hopes for him. Historically as a 14th overall selection, this prospect has a 60% chance of playing 300 NHL games and a 26.6% shot at piling up at least 300 pts….so the pressure is probably the highest on the young Canadian to become one of the Jets’ next wave of stars.
I truly believe that Brayden has all the skills required to remain a center once he makes the jump to the NHL…the biggest question that remains to be answered is whether that will be pivoting Winnipeg’s 2nd or 3rd line in the future. So I am fairly certain we won’t have to go through those “should he be playing center” conversations that we often have around players like Cole Perfetti or Gabriel Vilardi.
POTENTIAL:
Ceiling: NHL Top Six Center
Most Likely: NHL Middle Six Center
Basement: NHL 4th Line Center
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After working his way through the Toronto area hockey scene as a youth, Colby Barlow joined the Owen Sound Attack of the OHL as a 16 yr old and became a real goal threat as a rookie by hitting the 30 goal plateau. His second season went even better with 46 goals & 79 points in 59 contests (1.339 pts/gm) and that peaked the interest of Winnipeg’s scouting staff enough to select him with the 18th pick of the 2023 Entry Draft.
A physically mature young man, this gave him an edge in the early part of his development as his opposition needed time to reach their full potential. Possibly that played a role in Colby’s offensive production taking a hit over the next 2 Junior campaigns, with 1.16 & 0.984 pts/gm totals in the regular season. However, the 19 yr old hit another level when the post-season rolled around in 2024-25, where 33 pts in 21 matches (1.571 pts/gm) had the scouts once again becoming excited about Barlow’s potential as a top 6 sniper.
This past season, the 20 yr old winger entered the professional ranks as he joined the Manitoba Moose and it went far from perfect production-wise (16 pts in 65 gms). Stuck trying to deal with the speed of the AHL in the mini-Jets’ bottom six, the opportunities to show off his elite level shot didn’t arise often enough. Once again, Barlow finished a season off well with 6 pts in the last 9 regular season games, while adding a pair of assists in 7 playoff contests. Dobber Prospects is very high on the Ontario-born forward’s chances of becoming an NHLer with a rating saying that he is already ready to make the leap (9.5). Yet, the PNHLe chart below shows that the scouts’ belief in Colby’s ceiling has been consistently dropping since his pre-draft season.
I was going to go even lower with my prediction of Barlow’s basement, but that 9.5 NHL Certainty rating by Dobber Prospects has made me question whether I was missing things. He has the physical attributes and work ethic to play up and down the line up and that makes a big league career more likely if he can continue to improve his skating. Will have to see what the update in August indicates, but it sounds like the Jets may just have to be patient with this prospect’s development to get rewarded.
Certainly a big season for the 21 yr old next year with the Moose, which will hopefully see a bit more top 6 deployment to take better advantage of his scoring abilities, will return him to the Top Six Winger potential category. As of now, he is on pace to be a bottom six option that could chip in some secondary offense while also boosting a team’s powerplay.
Out of the 4 prospects that we are looking at today, Barlow probably is the least likely to become a future 1st liner in the NHL…but he has the tools & mind set to become a long-term NHLer on the lines beneath that. Where exactly will depend on how he continues to develop next season and what opportunities his future NHL coaches will give him. Only 36.6% of 18th overall draft picks have ended up playing more than 300 games and 15% have put up 300 or more points, so the odds of Colby becoming a real difference maker for Winnipeg in the future is improbable.
POTENTIAL:
Ceiling: NHL Top Six Winger
Most Likely: NHL Middle Six Winger
Basement: NHL Depth Winger
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Born in Sweden, our next prospect decided to move over to the NCAA and play with Boston University, where he picked up 13 pts in 40 games versus competition largely older than him. However, it was when he was suiting up for his country that he really caught the scouts’ attention (31 pts in 22 gms). That was enough for Chevy & co to take a gamble on Sascha Boumedienne with the 28th overall selection in the 2025 Entry Draft.
The latest Winnipeg 1st round pick really bulked up last summer, as he added 15 lbs to fill out his already tall 6’2″ frame. The increased weight hasn’t appeared to impact his skating, as he continued to be solid in transition in the NCAA this past year. Despite his mobility and a booming shot, the offense in college hasn’t emerged as he put up 10 pts in 35 games in 2025-26. The potential is still there, as the opportunities Boumedienne received in Boston were limited due to his place on the depth chart.
Even though the LD position opened up with graduations, Sascha has opted to move “home” to Ohio State, which is close to where he lived when his dad played with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Another bonus is that his brother is also attending school there and maybe that increased familiarity will be good for his ongoing development. Dobber’s gave the young Swede a 7.0 NHL Certainty rating and their current PNHLe chart seems to indicate that he is on the path to become a 2nd-3rd pairing tweener at the big league level.
28th overall picks have historically reached the 300 NHL game level at a rate of 30.9%, while hitting the 300 pt mark 12.7% of the time. While the point thing might not be as applicable to a defenseman prospect, Boumedienne will most certainly be trying to hit the games played plateau.
As a 19 yr old that was drafted late in the 1st round, his road to the NHL was always going to take time to reach his final destination. Sascha has all the tools you want from a defenseman in today’s NHL….a great skater to retrieve pucks or transition play up the ice, a big league level shot, a body size & mentality to deal with the physical demands a pro career demands, and an offensive upside that could only increase his value.
I don’t know much about the Buckeye’s hockey team….but I imagine I will be doing more research in the future on where the Jets’ prospect will fit in with his new team as the next NCAA season comes closer. Hopefully the kid kept opportunity in mind as well as being closer to his family, because I want to see him quarterback Ohio State’s powerplay next season to see if that can unlock his scoring potential.
Only 1 year removed from being drafted, here is how I view the range of where Boumedienne will eventually end up. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if the Swede played two more College campaigns before he opts to turn pro….so we will have to be patient.
POTENTIAL:
Ceiling: NHL Top Four Defenseman
Most Likely: NHL Bottom Four Defenseman
Basement: NHL Depth Defenseman
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Okay, as always that took longer than I expected……and we have only covered 7 out of the 23 prospects the Winnipeg Jets have in their system. Yet not all of those have a great shot at reaching the NHL, so not all of them will require as much discussion as the ones we have gone through so far.
That being said, I don’t think we are done with prospects that will eventually don a Winnipeg Jets or other big league jersey and I imagine those players will take up the majority of Part 3. On holidays this week and the weather early on is looking poor, so I will most likely get started on that right away with only periodical breaks to get my XBOX fix.
Last article I praised the Jets’ scouting department for finding some good looking prospects outside of the 1st round and after completing Part 2, my admiration has only dipped slightly after diving into the 4 highly drafted players in Winnipeg’s prospect pool. While I will acknowledge that it is difficult to find elite players outside of the top 10 with any level of frequency, I would like to think that a team should expect at least one “multi-base hit” out of 4 attempts. As of now, the True North franchise may end up with a great batting average (3 or 4 out 4 becoming NHLers), but their power rating (elite or 1st line NHLers) is looking like it could go 0 for 4. To continue the baseball analogy, making contact is really important….but knocking the ball out of the park every now & then is vital too.
Lets hear your thoughts on the prospects we’ve covered so far. Are the predictions optimistic that all 7 players will see significant NHL time? Or will some of the kids fail to reach their potential? Any player in particular that you are worried about? Finally, if you want a certain prospect covered that I haven’t gotten to yet, name him in the Comment section and I will ensure to add them to Part 3.
Hope everyone is doing well!!