The WTA Madrid Open is the third two-week 1,000-point tournament of the tennis season. It’s the first one on clay, as the run-up to the French Open begins to gain more momentum and the tournaments grow in importance. There are 96 players in the main draw, which means many qualifying-round matches are being played. Players in the top 50 know they will qualify for every 1,000-point tournament and every major. It’s the players on the margins to whom these qualifying matches are very important to the flow of their season and their chances to improve both their rankings and paychecks. There are plenty of Tuesday qualifying matches in Madrid. Let’s look at some of them.
WTA Madrid
Volynets – Korpatsch: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 1-0
Katie Volynets and Tamara Korpatsch are ranked within two spots of each other, Volynets at No. 101 and Korpatsch at No. 99. This is yet another Madrid qualifying match between two players trying to make a significant upward move in the rankings, which could potentially catapult them to direct entry into the French Open one month from now. It’s an important moment for both athletes. Their recent results in the weeks leading up to WTA Madrid have been relatively similar, adding to the intrigue.
Best Bet to Make
In a match between two relatively even players, the underdog is usually the place to lean to unless there’s a data point that makes the favorite a clear selection. The markets have Volynets priced as a clear favorite, but the odds don’t hit that 1.5 minimum we strive for here. The value, therefore, lies in betting on Korpatsch to keep the match close. She might not win, but she can certainly make this a prolonged battle.
That being said, Korpatsch +1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Korpatsch +1.5 sets @1.70 @interwetten
Udvardy – Grant: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
Panna Udvardy is ranked inside the top 80. Tyra Caterina Grant is ranked outside the top 250. Udvardy is 27 years old, and Grant is only 18. There is a significant experience gap between the two players. Neither player competed at WTA Indian Wells or WTA Miami. Udvardy made the Bogota semifinals. Grant won a bunch of matches on the ITF circuit before arriving in the Madrid qualifying rounds. Both players won their first-round Madrid qualifying matches.
Best Bet to Make
Udvardy and Grant have both won a majority of their last seven matches, but Udvardy did so on the regular WTA Tour while Grant won lower-tier matches on the challenger circuit. Udvardy is the more experienced player who figures to handle the bigger stage of Madrid with more grace. Udvardy might not be noticeably more comfortable than Grant on clay, but she is someone capable of competing on clay. It’s hard to see how Grant will take her out of that comfort zone enough to win the match. The odds on Udvardy winning straight up are priced fairly reasonably, and you know how much I love a quick and easy decision.
That being said, Udvardy winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Udvardy to win @1.72 @bet365
Blinkova – Kalieva: Time 6:30
H2H: 0-0
Anna Blinkova and Elvina Kalieva are trying to gain momentum this clay season. They have played close to .500 in their last several matches. Neither player put together consecutive tournaments in which they won at least three matches. Blinkova is barely inside the top 90 while Kalieva is just outside the top 130. Kalieva, however, has been playing tougher competition in recent weeks, which is likely why the betting markets have her as the favorite even though Blinkova is roughly 45 spots higher in the WTA rankings.
Best Bet to Make
This match is a really hard one to call. Blinkova has not been playing well. She is an experienced player who spends less time than Kalieva on the lower-tier ITF circuit and is playing more WTA-caliber players. Kalieva has indeed faced tougher WTA players in her last few matches. She faced Suzan Lamens and Kamilla Rakhimova in her last two matches. That’s a tougher combination than the pair of Nuria Brancaccio and Dominika Salkova, which Blinkova played in her last two matches. However, before those two recent matches, Blinkova was playing regular tour events, including Indian Wells and Miami, while Kalieva was playing mostly ITF events. Kalieva’s form is better, but Blinkova has faced generally better players over the past four weeks or so.
That being said, Blinkova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Blinkova winning @2.10 @betway
Main Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports