The WTA Stuttgart tournament is the bigger of the two WTA events this week. The smaller event is in Rouen, but the stars come to Germany to test their games before heading to Madrid for the two-week 1,000-point tournament everyone will be watching. We are likely to see high-profile matchups later in the week in Stuttgart, but the first round has an interesting schedule of its own. Let’s look at one portion of the very light Monday card and include one Tuesday match as well:
WTA Stuttgart
Lys-Badosa: 09:30
H2H: 0-1
Can Eva Lys beat a struggling Paula Badosa? Lys and Badosa have both been under .500 in their last seven matches. Lys has lost six of seven, Badosa four of seven. Badosa has faced stronger competition in those matches. Injuries have hampered both players. Neither player has been at full strength in recent weeks. Badosa is a former World No. 2, but her health is clearly preventing her from playing at an elite level. She also lost to Austrian teenager Lilli Tagger in straight sets last week. It had something to do with Tagger, but it also had something to do with Badosa not being in form.
Best Bet to Make
Can you really trust Paula Badosa to win a match convincingly right now? She didn’t just lose to Tagger last week in Linz; she lost in straight sets. On the other hand, Badosa did beat Maria Sakkari in Charleston the week before. She can play well, but her health is a crapshoot. The markets have Badosa as a clear favorite. She will probably win the match outright, but she will also probably make it an adventure. This means Lys will probably also make it interesting in return, providing us with a solid betting strategy.
That being said, Lys +4.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Lys +4.5 games @1.85 @William Hill
Zhang-Noskova: 01:00
H2H: 0-0
Will Shuai Zhang’s misery continue at the hands of Linda Noskova? Zhang has lost five straight matches. Noskova made the semifinals of Indian Wells and is ranked in the top 20. That is enough to explain the gap in form and quality between the two players. Yet, it can also be mentioned that Noskova just beat Belinda Bencic at the Billie Jean King Cup. These two players are going in very different directions.
Best Bet to Make
Noskova winning in straight sets doesn’t offer a great price at 1.65, so try to find something with a better return. The game spread is the play. Noskova can win by a decisive but not massive margin and bring in a lot more bang for the buck. Noskova doesn’t have to win this match by seven or eight games. If she wins by six, the bet is worth the risk. She’s probably also going to win by eight, though. As I said, different directions. But different directions doesn’t mean you have to be foolish with your cash.
That being said, Noskova -5.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Noskova -5.5 games @2.10 @bet365
Eala-Fernandez: 08:00
H2H: 0-0
Alexandra Eala gets Leylah Fernandez in the first round of WTA Stuttgart. These players are both ranked in the top 50. Can they begin to establish themselves at a higher level? That is the main question both players face. Eala has emerged as an exciting new talent, becoming a star in the Philippines. Fernandez made the 2021 U.S. Open final and is trying to live up to that achievement. Will either player find a spark in Stuttgart? Both players have an equal opportunity to add to their early plaudits.
Best Bet to Make
Fernandez is the higher-ranked player, but she hasn’t been an elite player in women’s tennis despite showing occasional flashes of talent. Even if she wins this match, Eala figures to keep it close. There isn’t a huge gap in talent between these two. If you bet on Eala to win the match, you might get great value, but the risk is higher. Eala covering a small number of games against the spread provides a better balance of ROI and likelihood of winning.
That being said, Eala +3.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Eala +3.5 games @1.80 @Betsson
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images