The WTA Wimbledon first-round qualifying competition begins on Tuesday. It’s the most prestigious tournament in tennis, known as The Championships in Great Britain. One interesting thing about Wimbledon qualifying, as opposed to the main draw itself, is that qualifying is not held on the grounds of the All-England Club, where the main draw occurs. Qualifying is held at Roehampton. The reason for this is simple enough: Wimbledon wants its courts clean and not chewed up for the start of the main draw, which will be this year on Monday, June 29. Roehampton hosts three days of qualifying through Thursday. Many dozens of players will try to be part of the 128-member field for the summer’s big lawn tennis party. There is abundant Wimbledon coverage at Last Word on Sports. Here are LWOS’ best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Wimbledon
Tan – Pohankova: 6:00 EST
H2H: 1-0
Harmony Tan faces Mia Pohankova. Tan is ranked World No. 199, Pohankova No. 244. Han is 4-1 on grass this year, Pohankova 2-2 on the surface. Yet, the betting markets have Pohankova as a clear favorite, with the best Pohankova moneyline price being 1.67. Why would this be the case? The main point is that Tan’s four grass wins came at Ilkley, a WTA 125 event and a very small tournament against not-very-strong competition. Pohankova went to Berlin for the WTA 500 tournament. She didn’t dominate but played much better against the opposition. The clear market belief is that Pohankova plays better players, which is more important than raw win-loss records. We will see if that belief is reinforced or not in this highly interesting match.
Best Bet to Make
The fact that Pohankova has been playing against better competition certainly matters. However, other things matter, too. Tan has shown an ability to play well on grass, even though it might not be against elite competition. Tan is 45 spots higher in the WTA rankings. Are we really sure Pohankova should be this much of a favorite? Shouldn’t the match be priced a lot closer to a toss-up than it currently is? You could go with Tan plus 1.5 sets as a parlay piece, but the main standalone bet is the over 2.5 set bet. If you think the prices are unusual, maybe even a little off, and you’re not sure one player really should be a clear moneyline favorite, it’s usually worth predicting a three-set match and generally expecting the match to be close. Over 2.5 sets always gives you a strong return on your investment if you win, so that seems like the sensible play here.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets @2.47 @Betsson
Uchijima – Adeshina: Time 6:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Moyuka Uchijima faces Esther Adeshina. Uchijima is ranked just outside the top 100, but Adeshina is ranked just outside the top 500. That’s a gap of close to 400 ranking spots. Neither player has played a grass match this season. Uchijima hasn’t played since May 26. Adeshina hasn’t played since June 4. It’s really weird when a match has two players who have not played at all in the past 18 days. That scenario doesn’t happen with great regularity unless it’s a match in late December or early January at the beginning of the new tennis season. With all the time off for both players, it doesn’t seem like a total lock that a specific outcome will emerge in this match.
Best Bet to Make
Uchijima’s much higher world ranking, which is close to 400 spots above Adeshina’s ranking, makes it obvious to install Uchijima as a massive favorite. The markets have Uchijima as such a huge favorite that Uchijima to win in straight sets doesn’t even offer that much value. That price is only 1.52. So, we have to go to the game spread. The two spreads where the prices are somewhat (but not completely) balanced are Uchijima minus 5.5 games at 1.83 and Adeshina plus 6.5 games at 1.60. You could make bets in each of these directions, hoping that Uchijima wins by exactly six games and cashes both tickets. Of these two bets, we will officially recommend Adeshina plus 6.5 games only because Uchijima, having not played since Roland-Garros and having not played on grass this year, might be rusty on the surface. This will allow Adeshina to keep the match somewhat close.
That being said, betting on Adeshina +6.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Adeshina +6.5 games @1.60 @1xBet
Riera – Britton: Time 6:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Julia Riera faces Daniella Britton. This match will get a lot of attention in Great Britain, where Daniella Britton will generate local headlines. Britton is a British player. The big story, and why this match is generating so much interest, is that Britton is only 15 years old. She doesn’t even have a WTA ranking assigned to her. She has done really well in under-16 tournaments and is viewed as an exciting prospect. Now she tries to qualify for Wimbledon. Riera loves playing on clay, so she obviously prefers that surface and doesn’t really embrace grass tennis. However, Riera knows how to win matches. She is 22-12 on clay this year in 34 matches. She has played 37 tour-level matches this year, while Britton has played only two. That’s a large gap in experience.
Best Bet to Make
The fact that Riera has barely played on grass could negatively affect her, but Riera is an established professional. She isn’t an elite player, but she is a competent one. If Riera barely played any tennis at all or had a horrible losing record, that would be reason to go with Britton in this match. However, that’s not the actual reality. Riera won close to two-thirds of her clay matches in 2026, showing she knows how to manage matches. This might be on grass and not clay, but Riera can probably overcome that limitation and still find a way to beat a 15-year-old opponent who is just beginning her professional career. Some people might find it irresistible to back the teenager here and root for the good story, but the logical betting angle is to trust the 24-year-old veteran who has shown she knows how to win matches. Take Riera in straight sets. The price is surprisingly reasonable.
That being said, betting on Riera winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Riera winning 2:0 @1.79 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports