WTA Wimbledon first-round play begins. For many, this is the crown jewel of all tennis tournaments, known locally as The Championships. The women’s tournament begins with Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina as the top two seeds. Still, they are not playing well and are not entering the All-England Club with much of any confidence. Iga Swiatek is the defending champion but is not playing well, either. There are a lot of questions in the women’s tournament, and there is a real chance the tournament will be as unpredictable as the French Open was a few weeks ago, with Mirra Andreeva playing Maja Chwalinska in a very unexpected final. What will happen at Wimbledon? There’s a lot of uncertainty, which should create a very exciting tournament. LWOS has our best bet for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Wimbledon
Wang – Cocciaretto: 7:30 EST
H2H: 0-1
This is a very mysterious WTA Wimbledon match in the first round. Xinyu Wang is playing her sixth grass match this season after going 3-2 in her previous five grass matches over the past few weeks. Elisabetta Cocciaretto was not healthy during the spring clay season, a time of year when she had hoped to collect a lot of points and move upward in the rankings. Concerns about overall health and fitness limited her to one match in the three weeks following the French Open, where she did not make a deep run. Cocciaretto has played very little tennis over the past month, which is why the betting markets have Wang installed as the favorite. This WTA Wimbledon tournament is viewed as being wide-open on the women’s side, and this match reflects the uncertainty surrounding women’s tennis. There are so many matches that a lot of people won’t be able to get a handle on.
Best Bet to Make
It’s not easy to place trust in Cocciaretto to win the match given that she has barely played any tennis over the past month, but she wanted to heal and recover. She might be healthier and fitter now, in which case she could be a very tough opponent for Wang. That’s really the central question here: Will Cocciaretto be fundamentally normal in terms of movement and strength, or will she look hampered on the court? Cocciaretto’s one grass warm-up match was a three-set loss to Ajla Tomljanovic, an opponent who plays well on grass and has won several grass matches this season. The loss was frustrating, but Cocciaretto put up a fight. This leads us to think that this match will have a lot of ups and downs and will probably go three sets. You could put Wang moneyline at 1.69 into a parlay, but over 2.5 sets is our best bet.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets @2.42 @betsson
Putintseva – Maria: 8:00 EST
H2H: 4-2
Yulia Putintseva has played only one match since Roland-Garros. Coming into this WTA Wimbledon match, she will have underplayed compared to a lot of other women’s tennis pros, especially Tatjana Maria. The German, who will turn 39 years old later this summer, has won 10 grass matches this season and loves playing on this surface. Maria, despite being the far older player here, is a massive favorite precisely because she is so reliable on grass. Putintseva has barely played and does not come into this match with any real confidence. Yet, Putintseva, as you can see, leads the head-to-head matchup and has played Maria six times, which should give her the knowledge that if she plays better, she can certainly win.
Best Bet to Make
Putintseva having four head-to-head wins over Maria really makes this WTA Wimbledon match different from a betting standpoint. If Maria was playing an opponent she had never faced, it would be a lot easier to trust Maria’s grass excellence and take her to win comfortably without a second thought. However, Putintseva gives Maria real problems. If the sample size of previous matches was just one or two matches, it wouldn’t be a big deal, but this is a sample size of six matches. You could put Maria moneyline into a parlay, but our recommended standalone wager is Putintseva plus 4.5 games. You could get Putintseva plus 1.5 sets for a slightly better price, but plus 4.5 games means Putintseva could lose 6-4, 6-4 and still cash your ticket. That’s added margin worth the slightly lower price.
That being said, betting on Putintseva +4.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Putintseva +4.5 games @1.67 @betway
Parks – Dudeney: Time 8:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Alycia versus Alicia. The names are the same but the spellings are different. Alycia Parks is ranked No. 80, and Alicia Dudeney is ranked No. 246, but the much higher-ranked player isn’t playing well. We see this scenario so many times. Do you trust the higher-ranked player to get the job done, or do you look at current form as the main basis for your wager? Parks is 0-3 on grass this year. She hasn’t looked good and comes into this WTA Wimbledon first-round match needing a spark to turn things around. Dudeney hasn’t played great, but she has won two grass matches in seven tries. That’s not a good record, but she has more grass match play than Parks and has two more wins. Neither player comes into this match in good form, but Parks’ form is clearly worse.
Best Bet to Make
In situations such as this one, the tried and true bet is not to trust either player to win in straight sets. When two players aren’t playing well, what usually happens? They get nervous in important situations. If one player gets a lead, she has trouble closing out the match and protecting her advantage. Betting on one player to win in straight sets will give you a very good price, but can you trust that? The value and comfort of betting over 2.5 sets is that it doesn’t matter which player fails to win in straight sets. You’re betting that neither player will win in straight sets, so your bet is not dependent on one player. Go with over 2.5 sets and expect a ragged match from two struggling players.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets @2.47 @betsson
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports