The 2026 Madrid Open has reached its penultimate day. Today, Friday, May 1, we have a superb semi-final lineup featuring the the best player in world right now but also a 21-year-old Belgian sensation who looks really sharp. These are the betting picks for the ATP Madrid semi-finals, Sinner vs Fils and Zverev vs Blockx.
Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils
Venue: Manolo Santana Centre Court
Scheduled Time: Not before 16:00 CEST
Jannik Sinner is currently playing a different sport than everyone else. He is on a staggering 21-match winning streak, having won four consecutive Masters 1000 titles (Paris, Indian Wells, Miami and Monte Carlo). He reached this semi-final by ending the dream run of local wildcard Rafael Jodar in a straight-sets win.
Arthur Fils is the only man on tour who can match Sinner’s momentum at the moment. The Frenchman is on a 9-match winning streak of his own, having won the title in Barcelona last week. At No. 4 in the race to the ATP Finals, Fils has been physically dominant in Madrid, using his explosive forehand to dictate play.
- Head-to-Head: Sinner leads 1-0 (won in Montpellier, 2023).
- This is power vs. power. While Sinner is the heavy favorite to reach a fifth consecutive Masters final, Fils has the form and weapons to make the world No. 1 uncomfortable at parts of the match.
Predictions and best bets: Should be a great match to watch and to see if Fils can disturb Sinner enough to make this a thriller. The Frenchman has reached a very high level in short time following his injury problems but I don’t think it’s enough to knock out Sinner of a Masters 1000 event with the form he’s in. Sinner to win in 2 sets but wouldn’t be surprised to see one tie-break.
Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Blockx
Venue: Manolo Santana Centre Court
Scheduled Time: Not before 20:00 CEST
Alexander Zverev is back in familiar territory. A two-time champion in Madrid, he has reached the semi-finals in seven of his last eight Masters appearances. He dispatched Flavio Cobolli with clinical efficiency in the quarters and looks like the man most likely to challenge Sinner for the title on Sunday.
Standing in his way is Alexander Blockx, the 21-year-old Belgian, the story of the 2026 season together with Jodar. After starting the year outside the top 100, he has knocked out four consecutive seeds in Madrid, including a stunning straight-sets victory over defending champion Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals.
- Head-to-Head: First-ever meeting.
- The Battle of the Alexanders. Zverev has the experience and the legendary Madrid record, but Blockx is playing with a confidence and fearless aggression that has taken down every top player he’s faced this week.
Predictions and best bets: Zverev is the favorite among bookies and that’s not a surprise. His form has been superb all year and this is probably his favorite tournament looking at previous seasons. I think Blockx will give him a real challenge though and take one set. Zverev to win in three sets.