SOUTHAMPTON, N.Y. — Do you, dear reader, have any idea how difficult this golf course is? In the last four U.S Opens here at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club — from 1986 to 2018 — exactly three players have finished under par. Phil Mickelson played hockey on the 13th green in 2018. Lee Trevino once called the 156-yard par-3 11th — with its tiny green that was already driving players nuts on Monday — “the shortest par 5 in golf.”
Although the only thing harder than the golf course — besides battling traffic to actually get to it — might be trying to predict who wins the 126th U.S. Open. But we are going to try anyway. Welcome to our biased, slightly erratic but mostly logical U.S. Open tiers, where we’ll dig through the contenders and, ultimately, pick a winner. And away we go…
The obligatory mention of the two favorites
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Do you know when Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler last finished outside the top 20? The Players Championship, back in March. In the time since, Rory won the Masters and Scottie has four top-three finishes. Scheffler needs a U.S. Open win to complete the career Grand Slam. Rory is looking for his second U.S. Open trophy. Shinnecock sets up well for both players, who are excellent ball strikers and rarely play themselves out of majors. They are the top two players in the world for a reason. Also, Scheffler’s 30th birthday? It’s Sunday.
One guy we really like who shot 63 last time he played here
Tommy Fleetwood
Before Tommy Fleetwood really became Tommy Fleetwood, he closed the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinny with a brilliant final-round 63, which ended up being a shot shy of winner Brooks Koepka. He finally got his first win on the PGA Tour last year and has six top 10s this season. A superb iron player who knows how to play in the wind, this is the perfect setup for him. Is this major No. 1?
Some other favorites we really like
Matt Fitzpatrick
Wyndham Clark
Cameron Young
This group has been cookin’, people. Fitzpatrick and Young are the front-runners for Player of the Year (five combined wins, including Fitzpatrick’s win with his brother at the Zurich, which we aren’t sure should really count but whatever). Young has tuned into a legit threat every week — he also dominated 60 miles away at Bethpage Black during the Ryder Cup last fall — and Fitzpatrick has already won a U.S. Open and loves these types of tests while everyone else seems to get more nervous around them. Clark, another U.S. Open winner, sparred with a locker this time last year and had been searching for better results since, but he’s turned things around and might be the hottest player entering the week. After his win at the Byron Nelson last month, he finished third at the Memorial and was in contention at the RBC Canadian Open last week before ultimately finishing 11th.
One sneaky pick I specifically like
Tyrrell Hatton
He tied for sixth here eight years ago. He’s wayyyy better now. He tied for 4th at Oakmont last year. U.S. Opens — especially ones at Shinnecock Hills — drive players mad (see: Mickelson, Phil). But Hatton’s already mad.
Shinnecock Hills greens
Nos. 1-18
By rule, someone will win this golf tournament, but the big winner until then (or even after) could be Shinnecock Hills and its devilish greens that are running slightly slower than usual due to anticipated strong winds but are actually still very hard. Fitzpatrick, who likes these kinds of setups, said he was disappointed they watered greens Monday. Regardless of who wins, the course, and greens, will always be a story here.
LIV guys we are bullish on
Jon Rahm
A 2021 U.S. Open winner at Torrey Pines, Rahm has played well this year and you could even argue he’s out to prove he should not be forgotten about despite his league’s ongoing concerns.
LIV guys we are less bullish on
Bryson DeChambeau
Cameron Smith
Bryson has missed the cut in both major starts this year and we aren’t sure Shinnecock is the perfect fit for his brawny game. (The fairways are wide, but if you miss them, it’s dead.) Smith played well at the PGA, but was that too little of a sample size?
Defending champs with injury issues
Brooks Koepka
Koepka won his second straight U.S. Open the last time this tournament was played here and he’ll tell you he’s mentally (and probably physically) stronger than most of these nerds. [Cue Brooks stuffing the 20 amateurs in the field in Shinnecock lockers.] But Brooks withdrew before the final round of the RBC Canadian Open two days ago with a hand injury and on Tuesday said it’s getting better by the day. Still, will it bother him? “I don’t know what I did,” he said Tuesday. “It just felt like it was very weak and kind of a tingly feeling as if you kind of hit your funny bone. That’s kind of how it felt in my ring finger and pinky finger.”
Other U.S. Open winners we didn’t mention yet but think they have a shot to win
J.J. Spaun
Justin Rose
Gary Woodland
J.J. Spaun is this week’s defending champ and has already won this season — and, ahem, excuse the shameless plug, also has the most interesting coach in the game — and Justin Rose continues to play excellent golf well into his 40s. Woodland has been solid and his win earlier this season has been one of the better stories of the year.
Guys playing in their 100th consecutive major
Adam Scott
One-hundred straight. Cheers to Adam. That’s remarkably impressive. Here’s a breakdown of his insane major longevity: 74 cuts made, 45 top 25s, 20 top 10s and, of course, that 2013 Masters win.
3 guys we didn’t mention who finished in the top 10 here in 2018
Dustin Johnson
Patrick Reed
Daniel Berger
While we don’t think DJ is about to turn back the clock and find that form, we do like P Reed this week. You should too.
2 guys trending?
Bud Cauley
Viktor Hovland
Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open Sunday, just his first as a pro, and Hovland finished third — his best finish of the season by far. But is it a sign of good things to come or an outlier?
The Jordan Spieth tier
Jordan Spieth
My first major I ever covered was won by Jordan Spieth, back at Chambers Bay in 2016. I don’t think he will win this week but boy time flies.
Other guys who are intriguing and have already won majors
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Justin Thomas
Would it surprise you if any of these guys won? No, it would not. Xander has played nine U.S. Opens and never finished worse than 14th.
Other guys who are intriguing and have not yet won majors
Viktor Hovland
Akshay Bhatia
Patrick Cantlay
Russell Henley
Ludvig Aberg
Chris Gotterup
Aberg might be the most intriguing name among the intriguing names without majors. Henley won a couple of weeks ago, is ranked 5th in the world and can walk into basically any restaurant outside of his hometown and not be recognized as Russell Henley, which probably makes Rory and Jordan and Tiger extremely jealous.
Guys we should probably mention but they didn’t fit into other categories
Shane Lowry
Rickie Fowler
Brian Harman
Robert MacIntyre
Hideki Matsuyama
Aaron Rai
Sam Burns
A flier on Lowry, anyone?
Guys we like who are playing in their first U.S. Opens
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Bad news, rookies — the last player to win a U.S. Open in their first attempt was Francis Ouimet… in 1913. Not gonna happen.
Interesting Alexes
Alex Smalley
Alex Fitzpatrick
Both have played well this year and one (Smalley) had a taste of major contention already this season (and finished T3 at the Charles Schwab two weeks after his PGA close-call). The other Alex has continued to prove he belongs on the Big Tour after becoming a full-time member a couple of months ago.
The oldest and the youngest players
Padraig Harrington
Miles Russell
I don’t necessarily think either of these guys will win but it’s always fun to point out the oldest (Padraig Harrington, 54) and youngest (Miles Russell, 17) players in the field. The oldest Open winner was Hale Irwin at 45 and the youngest John McDermott at 19.
The Jacksons
Jackson Koivun
Jackson Suber
Jackson Van Paris
Jackson Herrington
Jackson Ormond
The Jackson 5 is a mix of professionals and amateurs, although it’s mostly notably because 3 percent of the 156-player field is named Jackson. One, however, is worth highlighting for now, and that’s Koivun, who turned pro Monday to put a bow on a sensational three years at Auburn. In his nine PGA Tour starts as an amateur, he made seven cuts and finished in the top 10 three times. There’s a lot of intrigue surrounding him and we’re about to see him lots more on our TVs. A fine Jackson indeed.
And the winner is……
The last time we had a European win the U.S. Open, Matt Fitzpatrick lifted the trophy at Brookline in 2022. Now he does it again, finishing one-over par and edging guys like Scheffler and Fleetwood to claim his second major title. Scheffler was my pick up until Sunday, but after Fitzpatrick finished second in Canada, it was enough to persuade me to go with the hot hand who loves these gritty conditions. Will it actually happen? Now, we wait.