The swing rate on pitches in the zone in 2022 is particularly telling when combined with the chase rate, as it means that he laid off certain pitches even if they were strikes, as opposed to his more recent years, where he laid off fewer pitches both inside and outside the zone. Not swinging at strikes seems like a bad idea, but not all pitches in the zone are created equal. There is a concept in baseball of the “pitcher’s pitch”— a two seamer away that comes back at the last second to just barely clip the zone, or a slider that just dots the inside corner. Every hitter also has a “hole” in their swing, which is just a part of the zone they have trouble getting the barrel to. If a pitcher’s pitch happens to land in that area, it is even more effective. Swinging at pitcher’s pitches generally doesn’t go well for batters, because they will miss a lot, or generate an easy out via weak contact.
The best hitters usually just try to spoil those kinds of pitches, fouling them off with two strikes to stay alive. But with no strikes, they usually just take the pitch. Because the best hitters are waiting for their pitch to hit. Sometimes they will sit on a certain pitch or location, other times they will avoid swinging at certain pitches, etc. The point is that most good hitting approaches involve a high level of patience and discipline, trying to be aggressive on pitches they can handle, and laying off ones they cannot, regardless of the strike zone. Failure is part of the game of baseball more than most sports, so obviously that doesn’t always happen. But that is what they are trying to do, nonetheless.
Julio has also developed a reputation as a tinkerer, constantly making changes to his swing, setup, or approach. This is backed up by his pitch-type data, which shows that his “kryptonite” pitch changes every season. In 2022, the sweeper was the only pitch he saw regularly that he struggled with. In 2023, he slugged .588 and had a .405 xwOBA against sweepers but struggled against sinkers. In 2024, he had an xwOBA of .405 against sinkers, but struggled to hit changeups and sweepers. In 2025, he was much better against changeups and sweepers, but struggled to hit cutters.