With the 2026 NFL Draft in the books, we have a pretty good idea of how each team’s roster will look come September, barring some blockbuster trades.
But who are the real contenders? Let’s turn to my NFL Projection Model to see which teams have the goods to challenge for a Super Bowl in 2026.
My model has compiled all the rosters as they stand after the NFL Draft and ranked them from best to worst. To do this, the model uses various metrics and assigns a projection to each player to show their impact on a single game. Of course, positional value is quite important, which means, for example, that quarterback Josh Allen is worth a lot more to his team than running back Bijan Robinson, even though both sit atop their respective positions.
After summing up the impact of each roster, we can then rank them 1-32:
1. Los Angeles Rams
Although I didn’t love their draft (and they couldn’t overtake the Seahawks last year), I think the Rams have the best roster in football. It starts with the quarterback, of course, and Matthew Stafford is still playing at an elite level despite nearing retirement. The Rams also have the NFL’s best receivers room, led by Puka Nacua, plus a top-five interior offensive line, defensive line and cornerbacks room.
That’s quality up and down the roster, both young players and veterans. There are some concerns at offensive tackle, but the rest of the roster is top-notch.
2. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks don’t return their entire roster from last year’s championship team, but they bring back enough to still be formidable. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads my model’s third-best wide receivers room, but this roster really shines on defense, with a top-five interior defensive line, a top-10 cornerbacks room and a top-five safeties room. There is some concern about production on the edge, but the defense should be good again.
The offense, meanwhile, should be average or above average just about everywhere else. When you don’t have a weak link, you’re a Super Bowl contender.
3. Buffalo Bills
Admittedly, I was surprised to see the Bills this high. Sure, having my model’s best quarterback is a great place to start, but I do think Buffalo’s roster has some holes. But an elite quarterback can overcome those issues, and Allen is just that. Furthermore, when healthy, the Bills rank in the top 10 on the offensive and defensive lines, and they’re average at wide receiver and cornerback. If you’re strong at the elite positions — including the most important one on the field — you’re going to be in solid shape.
That said, I do think my model might overstate how much Allen improves the rest of this roster.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
File this one alongside the Bills. Patrick Mahomes is doing a lot of work, and he’s coming off a major injury, so there is more uncertainty than in years past. The Chiefs have a strong interior offensive line, but their tackles are a bit of a mess. The defensive line grades as very strong, and the linebackers room is underrated — I think both units are firmly in the league’s top 10.
It’s hard for me to get fully on board with the Chiefs being this high, given their concerns at offensive tackle and wide receiver, but having Mahomes is a huge boost to their projection.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
I need to add a disclaimer to this projection, as it currently factors in wide receiver A.J. Brown. At the time of publication, he is still with the Eagles, despite persistent rumors he’ll be traded to the New England Patriots after June 1. If that happens, the Eagles will drop to around plus-2.2 (and closer to league average).
Despite an aging roster, the Eagles boast a top-five offensive tackle pair, a top-10 interior offensive line, a top-10 defensive line and one of the league’s best cornerbacks rooms. If their quarterback play hadn’t fallen off last season, they would’ve had a great chance to be ranked at the top of the league for the second straight year.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
This has to be the year for Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Injuries have plagued them for years, but this roster is built to contend for a Super Bowl — the quarterback position is good enough, the offensive tackles form a top-five pair (when healthy), and the rest of the position groups rate around average.
Sure, they could use another receiver or an edge rusher. Overall, though, the Chargers are solid up and down the roster and elite at quarterback and offensive tackle.
7. Denver Broncos
Adding Jaylen Waddle pushes the Broncos’ wide receiver room into the top 10, which pairs well with a top-five offensive line. I do have questions about quarterback Bo Nix and his down-to-down consistency. Still, he’s been mostly fine in Sean Payton’s offense, and he now has more weapons.
On defense, the Broncos have a top-10 line and a top-three secondary.
8. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ pass catchers are still coming up short, but adding guard Vega Ioane could get this offensive line back to where it needs to be to protect quarterback Lamar Jackson and support running back Derrick Henry.
The strength of this roster, though, is on defense — particularly in the back seven. The linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties are all good, and Kyle Hamilton might be the best safety in the league. But outside of Trey Hendrickson, Baltimore’s edge rushers leave a lot to be desired, which pushes this roster down a bit.
9. Green Bay Packers
Edge rusher Micah Parsons is expected to miss some time as he recovers from a torn ACL, but it shouldn’t be more than a month of the regular season, so I don’t feel the need to penalize the Packers much for his absence. And, considering the past few seasons, I think the Packers’ defense is a bit underrated. With a new coordinator, this should be a top-10 unit with Parsons on the field.
The offense has a top-10 tight ends room but lacks an elite playmaker who can elevate the attack to the next level.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
A bounce-back season from wideout Brian Thomas Jr. could boost the Jaguars’ WRs from a fringe top-10 unit into the top five, which would be huge for the team’s ceiling. It would also help Trevor Lawrence, who might cement himself as a top-10 quarterback.
Edge is in a good spot, but the rest of the roster is average. Again, though, if you’re good at quarterback, wide receiver and edge rusher — and you have decent pieces elsewhere — you’re going to win games.
11. San Francisco 49ers
I’m a little shocked to see the 49ers projected this low, but I cringe when I look at their defensive line — it’s a bottom-five unit, and that’s with my model liking Nick Bosa and Osa Odighizuwa. The 49ers will need a big jump from Mykel Williams, and would benefit from solid play from Romello Height. If not for that issue, San Francisco would rank in the top 10.
The good news: Kyle Shanahan’s offense is awesome and can prop up a poor defense for the second straight year.
12. Detroit Lions
A lot of this projection rides on rookie OT Blake Miller. A good offensive line would go a long way toward allowing Jared Goff to play to his ability and maximize the talent of Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. If Miller doesn’t hit the ground running, the Lions’ offensive line would drop them enough to give me some pause.
The rest of the roster has elite players (Aidan Hutchinson, Jack Campbell, Brian Branch) supplemented by average-ish ones.
13. Dallas Cowboys
It starts with the offense. The Cowboys are set at quarterback and wide receiver, and they should be good along the offensive line. The tandem of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens is arguably the league’s best one-two WR punch.
Defense is the problem. My model believes the Cowboys need a lot at edge rusher, where they’ll be leaning on second-year player Donovan Ezeiruaku and rookie Malachi Lawrence. The interior defensive line is great, and recent No. 11 pick Caleb Downs should help in the secondary, but there are still some major holes.
14. Houston Texans
It’s fitting that the team after the offense-powered Cowboys is the defense-driven Texans. If you blended these two teams, the resulting squad might be a juggernaut!
The Texans have elite edge rushers and cornerbacks, as well as tremendous upside on the interior defensive line. On offense, however, the outlook remains bleak beyond a solid group of wide receivers. Houston’s offensive tackles rank 26th, its interior offensive line ranks 21st, and that’s before we get into the conversation about quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has struggled since a fine rookie season in 2023.
15. New England Patriots
As with the Eagles, A.J. Brown does not factor into this ranking. Even so, the Patriots’ position might be a little surprising — I wasn’t as high on them last year, and I think their Super Bowl run was heavily influenced by an easy schedule.
My model isn’t that high on them, mostly because of their wide receivers and offensive line. Both units struggled last year against quality competition, so time will tell if offseason additions pay off beyond what my model predicts. If the Patriots do pull off a trade for Brown, however, my model would project them to move into the top five.
16. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins make for a pretty good starting point. The problem is, you can’t win a Super Bowl with three players.
The rest of Cincinnati’s offense grades out as below average, and its defense isn’t much better. Even after trading for DT Dexter Lawrence, the Bengals still have concerns at edge rusher and linebacker. The secondary is actually better than most would think, but the Bengals desperately need to find ways to get after quarterbacks — and to keep Burrow upright.
17. Chicago Bears
The Bears’ magical run last season was a bit of fool’s gold, but I still might be higher than most on Caleb Williams’ fit in Ben Johnson’s offense. However, Williams needs to find more down-to-down consistency. Colston Loveland’s emergence should help on that front, but Chicago’s running backs and wide receivers are somewhat unproven. The offensive line should be solid, so it’s up to Williams and his receivers to move forward.
On the other side of the ball, it’s all bad. The defensive line, the secondary — they all grade out poorly in my model.
18. Minnesota Vikings
Adding Kyler Murray for cheap was a great move, but Murray is still dealing with an offensive line that grades out as average. The Vikings’ wide receivers rank 12th, but that could be influenced by last season’s poor quarterback play (the receivers have had some issues with drops, too).
On defense, my model does not like that Minnesota traded linebacker Jonathan Greenard, as every position group besides cornerback (No. 16) ranks 20th or worse. Brian Flores, work your magic.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m quite certain the window for this version of the Bucs has closed — or is just about to. Outside of offensive tackle (No. 3), every offensive position group ranks below average. The outlook is slightly better on defense, especially on the line. However, I’m not a huge fan of Tampa Bay’s linebackers or cornerbacks.
Rueben Bain Jr. will need to make an immediate impact.
20. Indianapolis Colts
The good news? I don’t hate the Colts’ roster. It’s average at a lot of spots and has some quality players.
The bad? Quarterback. Not only did I expect the Colts’ offense to come down to earth after a hot start last year, but now Daniel Jones is returning from a major injury that could affect his mobility. I’m not one to fall for one-year wonders — and Jones didn’t even make it a full year.
I’m down on this team until it figures out the QB position.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
Déjà vu? You can almost just repeat the Colts’ section here, except the Steelers are a bit older at some key positions — I’m looking at you, Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt. Right now, this ranking doesn’t factor in Aaron Rodgers, but his signing wouldn’t move the needle much.
The Steelers have one of the best defensive lines in football and a top-10 secondary. The offensive line isn’t where I’d want it to be, but some young players could improve with experience. Factor in the receivers, and this roster is solid — except for the QB.
22. Washington Commanders
I was low on the Commanders heading into last season, and I’m low on them again this year. My model is not a fan of their wide receivers room, and the offensive line grades out as average.
But, as has been the case for some time now, my real concerns reside with Washington’s defense. I don’t know what there is to like about this group — the defensive line is below average, and the cornerbacks group is one of the worst in football. Yes, rookie linebacker Sonny Styles should provide immediate help, but I’m not sure he’ll be enough to make this unit better than 25th or so in the league.
23. Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson is quite good, Kyle Pitts has emerged and the interior of the offensive line grades as quality. The rest of the Falcons’ offense, though, is in shambles. The problems start at quarterback. The book is out on Tua Tagovailoa, so it seems up to Michael Penix Jr. in his third year — and that’s scary.
On defense, the secondary is in good shape, with both the cornerbacks and safeties grading out as above average. The front seven needs a lot of work, as no position there ranks better than 21st.
24. New Orleans Saints
The Saints can’t be sure of what they have in quarterback Tyler Shough, but he wasn’t horrible last year, so there is some upside. Overall, the offense improved under Kellen Moore, and the addition of rookie wideout Jordyn Tyson makes the Saints arguably the most interesting team ranked in the 20s.
Every New Orleans position group ranks between 11th and 26th, so the Saints are far from elite but also not in absolute shambles. Rebuilds are supposed to look like this, and now the Saints need Shough and Tyson to grow into stars.
25. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers might pick up Bryce Young’s inexpensive fifth-year option, but I’m almost certain he’s not worthy of a long-term contract — at least not an expensive one. That puts the Panthers in a tough spot, despite winning the NFC South last season.
Their wide receivers and offensive tackles are in solid shape with young talent. But their edge rushers and defensive line rank 23rd and 19th, respectively — that’s not going to get it done. Even though the cornerbacks room (No. 8) is strong, it won’t matter much given the state of that pass rush.
26. New York Giants
The Giants have a few promising pieces, mainly Malik Nabers and Abdul Carter. They’re both young, play crucial positions and have impressed early in their careers. There are plenty of holes on this roster, however, and the future at quarterback is unclear after Jaxson Dart’s unspectacular rookie season.
The Giants’ main problems are on defense, where their interior D-line ranks as the league’s worst, and their cornerbacks room is 30th.
27. Tennessee Titans
Quarterback Cam Ward and the interior defensive line are the only spots that excite me. And any excitement over Ward is largely based on his status as a former No. 1 pick entering his second year. He wasn’t particularly good last season, but he was in a horrible situation, so a major upgrade remains possible in 2026. The Titans desperately need rookie Carnell Tate to follow in the footsteps of other recent Ohio State receivers and contribute early.
Outside of that, the rest of the roster ranks below average.
28. Las Vegas Raiders
Last year, the Raiders had some of the worst offensive line play you’ll ever see. They addressed that by signing center Tyler Linderbaum to a record contract, and the team now rates slightly above average on the interior offensive line; its offensive tackles rate about average. That should aid No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza’s development at quarterback.
Elsewhere, though, the Raiders have the third-worst receivers and rank 26th on the interior defensive line.
29. Cleveland Browns
New year, same Browns. My model loved what Cleveland did in the draft, which should help the roster going forward. But the team lacks a quarterback who has played anywhere above replacement level in quite some time. Maybe Deshaun Watson will turn back the clock, but I’m not holding my breath.
Cleveland does have some young, albeit unproven, talent at the skill positions and offensive tackle, to pair with what should be a good defense behind Myles Garrett.
30. Arizona Cardinals
If you’ve read any of my recent content, then you know I didn’t love the Jeremiyah Love pick, even though I believe he’ll be an excellent running back. Here’s why: The Cardinals rank below league average at quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle, edge, interior defensive line, linebacker and cornerback.
Sure, Love can be a great player, but the Cardinals can’t maximize his production without the right pieces around him.
31. New York Jets
The Jets’ defense is in decent shape, but the offense is worrisome. The quarterback position isn’t squared away, and that matters most, but the Jets also have issues at receiver and tight end, and the offensive line needs work.
The Jets had a strong draft, which should bolster many of the roster’s major flaws. Rookies David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. all have a chance to make an immediate impact.
32. Miami Dolphins
Seeing Miami in last place shouldn’t be much of a shock — the Dolphins are at the beginning of a total rebuild. They’re taking a chance on QB Malik Willis on a cheap contract, but the entire roster needs to be flipped. Outside of running back and linebacker, they rank 24th or worse at every position group, and they’re in the bottom five at quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, offensive tackle, interior defensive line, cornerback and safety.
At this point, Dolphins fans can turn their attention to the draft in 2027 — and maybe even 2028.