On paper, Alexander Zverev is finally running into his first tough test of the 2026 French Open.
That’s exactly the way Tuesday’s quarterfinal showdown against Rafael Jodar should play out on the court, too.
Zverev is without question the title favorite in this upset-filled men’s draw, but everyone still alive at the business end of the tournament has a realistic shot to lift the trophy. That is certainly the case for Jodar, who was among the top five favorites before the fortnight even began. The 19-year-old Spaniard’s clay-court swing already featured his first ATP title in Marrakech and back-to-back Masters 1000 quarterfinal performances in Madrid and Rome. Jodar now finds himself in his first slam quarterfinal following victories over Aleksandar Kovacevic, James Duckworth, Alex Michelsen, and Pablo Carreno Busta.
Whereas Jodar has not won a straight-set match since round one, Zverev steamrolled his way through a weak section of the bracket into the last eight. The third-ranked German cruised to straight-set wins over Benjamin Bonzi, Tomas Machac, and Jesper de Jong while defeating Quentin Halys in four. Zverev has crucially managed to conserve energy, because we saw what happened when he overworked himself earlier in the clay-court season — a 6-0 third-set loss to Luciano Daderi in the Rome semis.
Jodar should also be fine physically. The Spaniard has youth on his side and his match against Pablo Carreno Busta was not taxing at all despite going five sets (Jodar dominated the last three 6-1, 6-2, 6-2).
The key for Jodar is simply to keep the pressure on Zverev by making the match competitive from start to finish. No opponent was able to do that in the first four rounds, but none had Jodar’s talent. If the world No. 29 can hang around, Zverev could finally feel the pressure not only of this particular match but also of being the favorite to win his first Grand Slam title.
Pick: Jodar in 4