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A Mostly Unbiased Breakdown of the AL MVP Race — Grand Salami Time

A Mostly Unbiased Breakdown of the AL MVP Race — Grand Salami Time

Division Winner: Winning a division and getting the 2nd seed bye is a bigger achievement than making the playoffs with a wild card spot. If playoff positioning is a factor, Cal gets the slight edge.

The Verdict

Raleigh may be trailing Judge in some of the key hitting statistics, but he makes up for it with his power, defense, and leadership (helping bring the Seattle Mariners an AL Division Title for the first time since 2001). The fact that Cal Raleigh’s salary is so affordable ($17.5M/year for 6 years) gave the Mariners the ability to sign key additions like Naylor and Suarez. Salary is not something ever considered in an MVP discussion but Cal Raleigh is getting paid  $1.9M per Win above Replacement ($17.5M 2025 salary/9.1 WAR).

In comparison Aaron Judge’s 2025 salary was $40M. With a WAR of 10.1, the Yankees are paying him $4.0M for every win above replacement (40M/10.1).

This might sound silly, but the value of Cal Raleigh’s contract is valuable. The mariners are paying better than 1/2 the price per win above replacement for Cal, compared to Judge. If you are talking who is the most valuable player in the American League? It is not simply the player who put up the best offensive stats.

Aaron Judge is the clear winner of the Hank Aaron Award. He might even be the winner of the AL MVP. All I am saying is that there is a very strong case that if we are talking about who is the most “valuable” player in baseball, instead of who is the best player in baseball…. Cal Raleigh might be the right choice.

Witnessing it locally firsthand, if I had a vote (which I do not), I would cast it for Cal Raleigh because of all the intangibles. However, if I were a voter who wasn’t watching the Mariners every night or writing weekly analytical deep dives about them, I would probably vote for Judge based on the stats. Unfortunately, most voters are not watching ROOT Sports (rest in peace) but are instead catching the Yankees occasionally on national TV.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments: Will Cal win the MVP? Who would you vote for?

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