- Joe Brady takes over the Buffalo Bills: Improving the downfield passing attack while featuring two-running back sets would be a boon for Bills pass-catchers.
- Brian Daboll could make his mark on the Titans: The former Giants head coach may implement a faster offense that funnels targets to its top two receivers.
Estimated Reading Time: 17 minutes
Over the past three seasons, NFL offensive playcallers have changed their tactics. Offenses are running fewer plays, using heavier personnel packages with fewer wide receivers on the field, increasing play action and shifts and motion, while decreasing run-pass option (RPO) usage, running the ball more often and exploiting increasing blitz rates via quick first-read play designs. The changes reduce the number of flex-viable players, yet insulate star players with reliably large workloads.
Fantasy managers that are able to identify coaches’ positive outlier tactics amid shifting league trends can exploit them to their advantage in drafts. The top three NFL offenses expected to employ positive outlier tactics are detailed in “Best offensive environments for fantasy football purposes, Part 1.” The second-best offensive tier is detailed below.
NFL offenses featuring high play volume and no huddle tactics provide skill position players with more opportunities to earn touches.
As shown in the table below, fullbacks and Nos. 2 and 3 tight ends are playing more often.
NFL running backs logged 14,739 offensive touches at a 42.7% rate last season. NFL wide receivers logged 6,717 offensive touches at a 19.3% rate last season. NFL tight ends logged 3,111 offensive touches at a 9.0% rate last season. NFL fullbacks logged 129 offensive touches at a 4.0% rate last season.
Personnel groupings
- 11 personnel: One running back, one tight end and three wide receivers
- 12 personnel: One running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers
- 21 personnel: Two running backs, one tight end and two wide receivers
- 22 personnel: Two running backs, two tight ends and one wide receiver
- 13 personnel: One running back, three tight ends and one wide receiver
Offensive personnel grouping averages and outliers from 2023-25
Fullbacks and Nos. 2 and 3 tight ends earn touches inefficiently. Running backs and Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers playing in entrenched roles, on offenses featuring heavy personnel packages, will earn touches disproportionately more than their counterparts playing in offenses that rely on 11 personnel.
Running backs and wide receivers playing in the advantageous roles outlined above, who also play in offenses featuring play action and motion, will touch the ball more often, while also generating yardage more efficiently than their counterparts.
As detailed in “How play action, pre-snap motion, and RPO rates define 2026 fantasy value,” NFL offenses average 6.72 yards per pass play without play action and 7.76 with play action, and -0.042 expected points added (EPA) per play without motion compared to 0.002 with motion.
RPOs fail to improve offensive performance, going “from -0.015 on non-RPO plays to -0.030 on RPO plays, yet quarterback yards per rushing attempt jump from 4.39 on non-RPO plays to 4.56 on RPO plays.”
Detroit Lions
Lions head coach Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties from former offensive coordinator John Morton mid-season before replacing Morton with former Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing this offseason. Campbell’s prior actions suggest he will not allow Petzing to seize full offensive control, which is a positive for fantasy football purposes.
Detroit employed fantasy-friendly play-action as well as shifts and motion rates while relying on a run-heavy approach balanced by quick first-read play designs. Incorporating Petzing’s tight end-centric tactics will helpfully lessen target competition for the Lions’ top two wide receivers. The Lions’ pass play rate will also likely increase, albeit mildly.
The Lions’ positive outlier metrics in 2025
Lions No. 3 wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa earned a 63.3 PFF receiving grade in his 2025 rookie season. He could struggle to take a second-year leap given the expected 12 and 13 personnel increases.
Pending good health, both bellcow running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta (back) will benefit from a potential pass play rate increase. Among 55 NFL running backs and tight ends with at least 45 targets in 2025, Gibbs’ 90.3 receiving grade ranked third, and LaPorta’s 83.2 receiving grade slotted 10th. Gibbs should be the 1.01 draft pick in re-draft formats.
New Lions backup running back Isiah Pacheco secured a 59.3 PFF overall grade last year. He is a worthwhile bench stash with high-end fill-in-starter upside.
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens hired former Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter as their new head coach and former Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Declan Doyle in the same role. Minter spent 2017-20 as the Ravens’ defensive assistant, assistant defensive backs coach and defensive backs coach.
The two coaches will design their own offensive scheme. But as noted in “Best offensive environments for fantasy football purposes, Part 1,” the Bears and Chargers’ 2025 offenses combine for 11 positive outlier finishes. The Ravens’ own 2025 offense produced five such outcomes.
Personnel packages featuring fullbacks and tight ends feature prominently across the three samples. A run-heavy philosophy balanced with frequent play action and quick first-read designs is likely.
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints head coach Kellen Moore runs a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense aided by shifts and motion. New Orleans Football’s Nick Underhill believes Moore will increase his 13 personnel use this season in an effort to improve his play-action passing game and run game, furthering Moore’s fantasy friendliness.
The Saints’ positive outlier metrics in 2025
Health concerns remain present for the Saints’ expectedly explosive Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers, but expectations are high.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach this offseason, so last season’s tactics should remain stable. Brady smartly features play action, shifts and motion while helpfully reducing touch competition via frequent fullback usage.
The Bills’ positive outlier metrics in 2025
Buffalo’s 0.111 expected points added (EPA) per play ranked second among NFL offenses in 2025.
The Bills bolstered its wide receiver corps this offseason, as it attempts to improve downfield passing. Seriously threatening defenses downfield could allow the Bills’ offense as a whole to produce even more efficiently than it did last year.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans hired former New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll as their new offensive coordinator. Daboll will increase the offense’s pace, play volume and neutral game run play rate while potentially adding a rushing component to second-year quarterback Cameron Ward’s fantasy football outlook.
Tennessee’s new coaches have been encouraging the team’s starting quarterback to run more this season. Among 15 rookie quarterbacks with at least 35 rushing attempts in their first NFL season from 2021-25, Ward’s 70.1 PFF rushing grade ranked 11th.
The Titans’ positive outlier metrics in 2025
Titans rookie No. 1 wide receiver Carnell Tate and veteran slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson can both clear triple-digit targets if Daboll increases offensive play volume as expected. Tate earned an 89.0 PFF receiving grade in his final college season, while Robinson posted a 69.8 receiving grade while adding a downfield component to his route tree.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a candidate to finish as the overall QB1 in 2026, throwing passes to Jacksonville’s exceptionally deep pass-catching corps in head coach Liam Coen’s efficient, shifts- and motion-based scheme.
The Jaguars’ positive outlier metrics in 2025
Sports Illustrated Jaguars beat reporter John Shipley believes Coen could use 12 and 13 personnel sets more often this season, but this idea is incongruous for a team fielding the NFL’s deepest wide receiver corps. The unit added two potential contributors in the 2026 NFL Draft in Josh Cameron and CJ Williams.
The Jaguars’ backfield is similarly crowded, though second-year running back Bhayshul Tuten could secure the starting role this summer. Scoring double-digit touchdowns is within his range of potential outcomes.