Colorado Rockies game no. 58 thread: Logan Webb vs. Michael Lorenzen

After a much-needed day off yesterday, the Colorado Rockies return home tonight to open their final series of May against the San Francisco Giants.

Colorado enters at 20-37, last in the NL West, after going 1-6 through Arizona and Los Angeles. The Rockies won just one of four against the Arizona Diamondbacks, then were swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers by scores of 5-3, 15-6, and 4-1. They have lost five straight and are now 6-19 in May as they head back to Coors Field.

Bad road trip. Miserable month.

And yet, somehow, there is still a small opportunity sitting in front of them. The Giants arrive at 22-34, fourth in the division and only 2.5 games ahead of Colorado.

That means the Rockies could finish May not in last place.

It is not a lofty goal, and the fact that it is even on the table probably says as much about the Giants as it does about the Rockies — San Francisco is just 9-16 this month, and has lost three straight — but after the way May has gone, Colorado will take any step forward it can get.

To start moving in that direction, the Rockies will need a better showing from Michael Lorenzen. The veteran righty enters at 2-7 with a 7.21 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, and 41 strikeouts in 53 2/3 innings.

Hitters are squaring Lorenzen up too often, and he has not generated enough swing-and-miss to survive the hard contact. His 47.2% hard-hit rate is in the 10th percentile, while his 15.7% strikeout rate and 20.3% whiff rate underline the problem.

The Coors Field numbers are even more unsightly. At home this season, Lorenzen owns a 10.03 ERA and 2.44 WHIP across five starts.

For the Rockies, a useful start from Lorenzen does not have to look dominant. It just has to look stable: avoid the early crooked inning, keep the ball in the park, and get the game into the middle innings without putting too much stress on the bullpen.

The Giants counter with 29-year-old right-hander Logan Webb, who is expected to return from the injured list after missing time with right knee bursitis. Webb has not pitched in the majors since May 5, though he did make a rehab start for Triple-A Sacramento, throwing 62 pitches over 3 1/3 innings, before completing a bullpen session earlier this week.

That makes his workload worth watching. Webb enters at 2-4 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.40 WHIP through eight starts, but the profile is not as simple as the surface numbers. He is still getting hitters to chase, with a 34.9% chase rate in the 88th percentile, and he is still keeping the ball on the ground, with a 58.5% ground-ball rate in the 96th percentile.

The concern is what happens when hitters do square him up. His average exit velocity allowed is in the 13th percentile, and his hard-hit rate is in the 6th percentile, so there has been more damage on contact than usual. That gives the Rockies a pretty clear assignment: avoid quick outs against the sinker, stretch the at-bats, and see how much leash the Giants are willing to give him in his first start back.

The Rockies need a complete team game tonight. Lorenzen has to limit the traffic and damage enough to set-up the bullpen. The offense needs to make Webb work in his return. The defense needs to be clean behind all of it.

Do all of that, and the Rockies might be on their way to starting June somewhere other than last place.

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Giants SB Nation site: McCovey Chronicles

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