Top seed Alex de Minaur will try to hold off American Brandon Nakashima for a spot in the Queen’s Club semifinals on Friday. Meanwhile Alejandro Davidovich Fokina takes on Tommy Paul in an all-seeded showdown.
(1) Alex de Minaur vs. Brandon Nakashima
De Minaur arrives at his third Queen’s Club quarterfinal playing about as well as he has since the start of the spring. He ran to the final in ‘s-Hertogenbosch last week and then opened in London by dispatching Canadians Denis Shapovalov and Gabriel Diallo without much fuss. Brandon Nakashima has quietly made this his second straight Queen’s Club quarterfinal, blitzing Ignacio Buse 6-2, 6-2 — but there is one catch worth flagging. This is the American’s first grass event of the year, so he may still be finding his way on the surface against an elite opponent.
The head-to-head sits at 1-1, with Nakashima winning indoors in Antwerp and De Minaur getting him back in last year’s Washington quarterfinals en route to the title. They have never met on grass. De Minaur is the definite favorite on Friday. His movement translates well on fast courts and the forecast calls for a warm, humid London day pushing 85 degrees — a benefit to de Minaur, who is one of the best players on tour in the heat. Nakashima is a clean, flat ball-striker who can take time away when he is dialed in, and de Minaur has a habit of letting lower-ranked opponents hang around longer than they should. I think Nakashima grabs a set with his first-strike tennis before the top seed’s legs and consistency win out.
Cheryl pick: De Minaur in 3
Ricky pick: De Minaur in 3
(4) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. (8) Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul owns this matchup 5-0…but the two have never played on grass. Paul knows this lawn as well as anyone left in the draw. He won the title here in 2024, missed last year’s edition with injury, and is now riding a seven-match Queen’s Club winning streak after taking out Botic van de Zandschulp. His career grass record sits at a tidy 35-18. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the No. 4 seed, has climbed to world No. 22. He hasn’t historically played well on grass, although he looks pretty good this week and has yet to drop a set.
Neither man leans on his serve, so this one figures to live in long baseline exchanges on what promises to be a hot afternoon. Davidovich Fokina has the flair and the shot-making to catch fire for a stretch — drop-shots and all. Still, it’s hard to ignore what seems to be a legitimate matchup problem for the Spaniard. I’ll take the former champion’s feel for this surface, with ADF grabbing a set.
Cheryl pick: Paul in 3
Ricky pick: Paul in 2