Fool me once shame on you, fool me 4 times….. – April 23, 2026
Michael Harris II (OF – ATL) – Harris homered twice against the Nationals on Wednesday, giving him 6 already in just 86 PAs this season. He’s had a heck of a road trip, reaching base in all 6 games and going 10-19 with a 2B, 4 HR, and 2 BB with 0 K, and he’s hitting 296/337/543 in 23 games this year. Harris is 25 and in his 5th season with the Braves, and he remains one of the most frustrating players in baseball. He has essentially not progressed at all as a player since coming up to the majors, putting up around a 20/20 season every year while swinging at everything and making roughly league average contact while playing excellent defense in CF. This year he’s shown a slight improvement in contact rate (previously he was a little below average, this year so far he’s a bit above) to go along with his very good raw power, and obviously so far he’s gotten to the in-game power a bit better than usual with an average exit velocity of 94.3 before Wednesday’s 2 HRs. For all of the frustration, the floor here is very good (particularly in non-OBP based formats), and there clearly is quite a bit of ceiling still available. He’s a player that I love having around despite the maddening nature of his plate discipline (and massive GB rates), because you can’t help but think that it’s going to click some year and he’ll put up a 35/20 year with a solid AVG, and in that lineup that will mean a ton of R and RBI as well. He’s still just 25!
Josh Jung (3B – TEX) – Jung went 2-4 on Wednesday with his 3rd homer of the season, a flyball sliced the opposite way that made it onto the short porch down the RF line. After starting out the season 0-18, Jung has gotten white-hot since the calendar switched to April, going 23-54 with 8 2B and 3 HR, good for a 426/508/741 line. He’s cut his chase rate a couple percent again so far this year, and the swinging strike rate has gone from poor to average to very good over that same stretch. The exit velocity looks good, the line drive rate is over 30%…this is a bit reminiscent of how he hit before the injuries hit in 2023-24. Being that those injuries were a broken thumb and broken wrist, he may finally be feeling healthy again, and he’s just 28. I’m inclined to believe that we have a legitimate average contact/above average power 3B here, like we thought 3 years ago. There’s also a non-zero chance that the contact ability has improved a bit, which would vault Jung into the top-12 at the position in my opinion, especially now that he’s moved up into the middle of the Texas order. I am positive here to be sure.
Peter Lambert (SP – HOU) – The Astros signed Lambert as a free agent from Japan in October as organizational depth, but the guy that looked like Houston’s 9th starter a few months ago is suddenly critical to their staying afloat. He struggled in his first outing against St. Louis last week, showing some bat-missing stuff but allowing 4 runs in 5 innings to a rather weak lineup, but he was much better against an entirely left-handed Cleveland lineup Wednesday. Lambert went 6 shutout innings and allowed 3 singles and 3 walks, striking out 8 and generating 16 whiffs on 96 pitches. It’s tough to figure out exactly what is here with Lambert, mostly because he spent 5 1/2 years pitching in AAA and MLB for Colorado….those numbers should always be taken with some healthy discounting applied. Lambert’s GB rate looks very solid, and there certainly have been stretches where he has missed plenty of bats. The control looks fairly suspect, but if there’s enough in the other two areas, that Houston offense could offer him plenty of support. He looks like a reasonable speculative add to me, particularly with a 2-start week coming in Baltimore and Boston next week. There’s obviously plenty of risk, but from the little bit that I’ve seen thus far it’s risk I think that I’ll be accepting.
Casey Mize (SP – DET) – Mize was very good again on Wednesday, holding the Brewers to 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings, walking 3 and fanning 7 to move to 2-1 on the season. He’s showing diminished velocity, but he’s getting swinging strikes on his splitter out of the zone and called strikes on his slider in the zone (70% zone rate today on 27 sliders!) enough to offset the weaker fastball so far. The control has been decent, he does allow some hard contact but it’s better than it has been in the past, and the bat-missing is finally around league average. The advanced ERA metrics all suggest an ERA in the high 3’s is warranted, which would make Mize a viable back-end starter at this point, which supports the eye test for me. I would stream him against lesser power-laden teams, which means that I’d be very leery of start #1 (@ Atlanta) of his 2-start week next week…he still allows a lot of flyballs and a hard hit rate that is worse than league average.
Miguel Vargas (3B/1B – CWS) – Vargas homered for the 3rd straight game on Wednesday against the D-Backs, and he also stole a base, giving him 5 and 4 respectively through his first 23 games. I remain interested here despite the overall 193/333/434 line. This kid (he’s still just 26) has always hit in the minors. Always. He has excellent strike zone discipline and is a well above average contact hitter. He has average power and speed, but he’s showing a bat speed increase of over 2 mph thus far this season, which is a big jump. 3B looks a bit weaker than we thought, and the skill set here is enough for me to believe that he should be owned in standard formats and deeper right now. We’re finally seeing in the in-zone swing rate climb above 70%, and it’s happening while the chase rate continues to decline from good to fantastic. I still think there’s a viable major league bat here.
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